Where did Japan get its money from?

[Cynic]

I'm trying to get a good picture of Japan's history.

From pre-WW 2 to post world war II, where did Japan get its money for its industrialization and such?

[Zinegata]

Borrowing money from the West, and relying on the savings accounts of ordinary Japanese citizens.

Meiji era Japan was not as stable as they'd like the world to believe. Japan went on the brink of bankruptcy at least once (during the Russo-Japanese War) and was saved mainly through timely loans by a Jewish American banker (which caused Japan to protect Jews during World War 2, ironically enough).

However, by forging close ties with the Brits (the biggest bankers at the time) and by industrializing like crazy they were eventually balance the books somewhat and turn their country into an export-driven economy. The problem was that they also had to import almost everything too, which resulted in their imperialistic attitude and conquest of foreign countries.

After WW2 Japan basically rebuilt their country using foreign loans (again) but they were much more stable due to the fact most Japanese citizens now had their own savings accounts. Savings accounts which they tended to never touch (Japanese are BIG savers compared to the US). This gave the Japanese banks a pretty huge supply of cash that they could lend out to the big Japanese companies - who in turn invested into expanding their industries - and so on. I think they were so successful that at one point Japan was able to pay off all its foreign debt.

[Crissa]

There were big programs to encourage working-age Japanese (and specifically women) to save for retirement. These huge accounts were used to balance against borrowing for industrial expansion, which generally paid off.

However, during the 90s, they entered a stagflation situation whereby many businesses were offshored and their trade imbalance with the west declined. The savings habits of the Japanese then became a problem, as money wasn't entering their economy at a rate high enough to stimulate business expansion to make up for contraction.

Their central bank has been frozen in a wave of bad land deals since then. Very similar to how many countries are in trouble now (2008-2010) and don't have the spending habits to get out of recession patterns. Some countries have escaped through export-focused economies (like Germany) or by currency balance (like Sweden or the Swiss). But service-based economies like Spain and Italy are screwed.

Basically, if you and export economy and have a market as big as the US, and the US grows, you do fine. If you don't, or take loans poorly (like Mexico), you get screwed. And then, when you get the money, you need to reinvest it - but bubbles (like land speculation) will completely devour that wave of cash.

-Crissa

[cthulhu]

Spain is hardly screwed - with a debt to GDP ratio that is less than half of Germany's despite a massive stimulus program, and despite all the talk of PIGS Spain has low interest rates amongst the EU nations (Lower than Irelands for example, despite Ireland embracing fiscal austerity) they are totally fine.

[Crissa]

That's because fiscal austerity doesn't work. When government doesn't spend, the economy contracts. Of course, our expected capitalist growth far exceeds that contraction, but when there's a recession... Only the government can spend money.

And you should enter into recessions with low debt to GDP. However, they now have a higher spending to GDP than Germany. And their GDP isn't looking to grow any time soon, and as a group of individuals, they have a huge housing bubble which sank their pocketbooks badly.

-Crissa

[MfA]

expected capitalist growth far exceeds that contraction

An optimist ... I for one think it will only be down hill from here (at least for average people in first world countries).

[Crissa]

An optimist ... I for one think it will only be down hill from here (at least for average people in first world countries).

Ahh... Assuming capitalism is working, which it isn't right now. The idea is to surf the waves then shorten the gaps with deficit spending, then surf the wave again.

Execution is not theory, however.

-Crissa

[MfA]

I think the faith that for every job lost to automation and outsourcing the increase in productivity will help create one of greater value is entirely unfounded. It was true for a while and capitalism worked great for a while, I don't think it has been true for ~2 decades and I don't think it will ever be true again.

The way capitalism worked it can never work again IMO.

[Crissa]

Well, in history it has always come around. It's always had times when people thought it would never work again, and times when people thought it would never fail.

-Crissa

[MfA]

What parallel is there in history where 80 percent of jobs were service sector?

[cthulhu]

That's because fiscal austerity doesn't work. When government doesn't spend, the economy contracts. Of course, our expected capitalist growth far exceeds that contraction, but when there's a recession... Only the government can spend money.

And you should enter into recessions with low debt to GDP. However, they now have a higher spending to GDP than Germany. And their GDP isn't looking to grow any time soon, and as a group of individuals, they have a huge housing bubble which sank their pocketbooks badly.

-Crissa

Yes I know, and yes the asset bubble is a fuck as price stickyness makes depreciation of asset values take forever, and the euro is stopping them from devaluing their currency.

But they arn't actually fucked. It's hardly latvia or some shit.

[Username17]

What parallel is there in history where 80 percent of jobs were service sector?

Well, it isn't 80 percent yet. But basically, we do have a model of what happens when less than 20% of the population is employed in productive labor - pre-industrialism. The old way was seriously that when the vast majority of people were not employed in production, they wandered off to do subsistence farming, became bandits, or starved. The invention of the Welfare State improved that equation a lot, but basically post industrialism is moving in that direction.

The only people assured a paycheck under capitalism are the owners of capital and the people who actually work directly for the capitalists making shit. The rest of the people can only get by with government handouts or by exchanging their services for handouts to the capitalists and producers. As the capitalists and producers become a smaller and smaller proportion of the population, the need for government intervention (and the taxes to pay for it) increases.

Watching people decide to shrink government on the grounds that today's deficits are tomorrows taxes is... retarded. Of course taxes are going to have to increase in the future! Even aside from the fact that in the US we irrationally and unsustainably slashed taxes all over the place for the last 10 years - the fact is that we're moving to post industrialism. And that means less and less people will be "required" to produce the trappings of civilization, so more and more people are going to have to be supported by tax revenue.

There's a limit to how much people can even want to buy. Eventually you hit a plateau where instead of pushing workers out to go work in other factories - increasing the efficiency of production is simply pushing workers out to the ranks of the permanently unemployed. The Luddites were wrong, but as technology continues to progress the effect they warned about does eventually happen.

-Username17

[MfA]

Also, there isn't nearly enough land available for most of us to wander off to do subsistence farming any more.

[Username17]

Also, there isn't nearly enough land available for most of us to wander off to do subsistence farming any more.

There are... other options.



-Username17

[Rathe]

Ahh well, if this were a Civilization game, it'd be about the time where I would be changing the majority of my population from Farmers/Workers to Scientists.

[Clutch9800]

Spain is hardly screwed - with a debt to GDP ratio that is less than half of Germany's despite a massive stimulus program, and despite all the talk of PIGS Spain has low interest rates amongst the EU nations (Lower than Irelands for example, despite Ireland embracing fiscal austerity) they are totally fine.

Spain is a far sight from "fine".

"...The sixth age shifts
Into lean and slippered panteloon,
With spectacles on nose and pouch on side,
His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide,
For his shrunk shank; and his big manly voice,
Turning again towards childish treble, pipes
And whistles in his sound..."

An ultra low native birth rate, a large immigration rate, and a welfare state do not a happy future make.

Plus the almost complete loss of national identity and pride. Case in point, the self same spanish people fought a brutal civil war to determine republican or fascist now can't be bothered to even ask for terms when a bunch of foreigners blow up Madrid.

Nope, Spains future is rooted firmly in its past.

Welcome back to Moorish Spain.

Clutch

[Username17]

An ultra low native birth rate, a large immigration rate, and a welfare state do not a happy future make.

Why? It's worked pretty well for the US for the last 80 years or so.

A recipe for disaster would be a low native birth rate and a low immigration rate - because that would mean that the actual number of workers in the next generation would be less than the number of workers in the last generation. As long as reductions in birth rate can continue to be made up with by importing trained workers from other countries, the birth rate issue is a non-issue.

Case in point, the self same spanish people fought a brutal civil war to determine republican or fascist now can't be bothered to even ask for terms when a bunch of foreigners blow up Madrid.

Last I checked, Madrid was definitely still there, and has not been blown up. True fact: the 2004 Madrid train bombings by Al Quaeda and the 2006 airport bombings by Basque separatists both occurred in years where the overall murder rate was lower than the previous year for other reasons. Those "attacks," while dramatic looking, are still just crime. And even counting those events... you were still 16% safer from murder in Spain during 2004 than in 2003.

Spain's reaction of treating terrorist attacks pretty much exactly the same as any other criminal homicide seems to be working out pretty good. You know they have a murder rate that is less than a third that of the US, right?

-Username17

[Clutch9800]

A recipe for disaster would be a low native birth rate and a low immigration rate - because that would mean that the actual number of workers in the next generation would be less than the number of workers in the last generation. As long as reductions in birth rate can continue to be made up with by importing trained workers from other countries, the birth rate issue is a non-issue.

I respectfully disagree.

The next generation of Spaniards will be less than half of the present generation. With a birth rate of around 1.1 per woman the Spanish as a people, and culture are unsustainable. As far as "importing trained workers" goes. From where? Where are these "trained workers" coming from?

We can pretend it doesn't make a difference, but we both know it does.

Why it has worked for the United States for the past 80 years is that the immigrants coming in have assimilated American culture to an extent. (Win, lose, or draw. I don't want to get into a debate on the upsides and downsides of 'American Culture').

That said, are these trained workers really going to be that enthusiatic about working to support a generation of subsidized ingrates that don't particularly like them? Especially when the Imams start telling them not to?

Western Europe is commiting cultural suicide.

Clutch

P.S. This isn't about the U.S. vs. Europe, or anywhere else. I don't even want to compare the U.S. with anywhere else, because it's difficult to remain objective when we do. (At least for me it is.)

[Username17]

The next generation of Spaniards will be less than half of the present generation. With a birth rate of around 1.1 per woman the Spanish as a people, and culture are unsustainable.

I'm an American. And because of that, your statement makes no sense to me. At all. My ancestors are from Norway, Mecklenburg, Austria, and Lithuania. They were Nords, Jews, Slavs, and Sinti. I am a White American. Culturally interchangeable with any other White American. I know how to grill a burger and I value American things.

You don't need any people of any particular genetic heritage in order to perpetuate your culture. Your culture does not pass down from father to son, it passes down from generation to generation of the society at large. People assimilate.

Every generation people complain that this generation of immigrants is different, because this generation of immigrants doesn't assimilate. But it's never ever true. Every generation grows up exposed to schools where they speak the national language, watching TV where they speak the national language, and confronted with the grim reality that if they want a good paying job that they need to speak the national language. Yeah, the current generation of immigrants doesn't magically learn Spanish all at once. But their kids will grow up knowing Spanish. And their grand kids won't even know more than a couple words of Arabic.

Yes, Spain is a has-been power. The center of power in the Spanish Speaking World is Mexico and has been for some time. But Spanishness isn't in any danger at all. If language was super important, they could let two million Columbians or Bolivians in tomorrow. But the fact is that it's not. Children grow up being able to see what culture is dominant and what culture is not. And they align themselves naturally with the dominant one. Do you know how fucking hard it is to get kids to bother learning Gaelic in Ireland? Really hard, because English culture is dominant there. As long as business and government is still done in Spanish, Arabic children will grow up speaking Spanish and identifying as Spanish. And then they'll work to keep Spanish dominant, because that's the language they speak.

-Username17

[Murtak]

I can only talk about Germany but from what I see immigrants get blamed for being a drain on the country and for stealing jobs from Germans - at the same time. It really boggles the mind. As for cultural suicide, give the immigrants half a generation and you will hear them complain about the damn immigrants stealing their jobs.

As far as I can tell most of our problems stem from constantly lowering the budgets for education, integration and welfare programs. We are in essence stealing from our future and have been doing so for decades now. Of course there is trouble with immigrants. But not because immigrants are worse as human beings or because they do not fit into our society but because they arrive here poor, do not supported, get ostracized by large parts of society and then their children are not adequately educated, hence can't get decent jobs and keep the cycle going.

Instead we pump billions of euros into bonuses for bankers, subsidies for produce which then gets dumped onto waste sites and lowered taxes for the rich. We could have been hiring thousands of teachers instead, cutting down class sizes from 30 to 10 and actually given the teachers a chance to talk to their pupils and help them learn instead of just reading to them. We could have hired thousands of social workers to help bring immigrants up to speed and have hundreds of thousands of productive members of society instead of recipients of welfare. Heck, we could just have paid immigrants to build roads, schools and parks. We get the money back anyway, because they can't exactly afford to to save up or invest it. And instead of welfare recipients we get people with an actual job, who do not feel like a leech on society and who tell their children that participating in society is worth it. Oh, and of course we get some roads out of the deal.

Instead we basically punish them for coming to Germany, constantly tell them they are useless fuckers who should go home to whatever shithole they come from and refuse to let them join our society - and then we wonder why we have an immigrant problem.

[cthulhu]

Wow, I thought they had an asset price bubble that was going to be tricky to remove without a significant economic dislocation as they couldn't devalue their currency

I missed someone using nuclear weapons to take out Madrid.

[Maj]

But Spanishness isn't in any danger at all.

Yeah. As long as they have Mallorca and Ibiza, Spain is going to be just fine.

[Clutch9800]

I missed someone using nuclear weapons to take out Madrid.

Man, don't even joke about that.

Clutch

[Blicero]

So Frank, you don't think there's any chance that the US will oneday be almost bilingual with English and Spanish?

I realize that all the power still lies with the wasps, but I also remember when I visited Portland last summer that the street cars had all of their announcements in both English and Spanish. Now, Portland is on the West Coast, but it still seems rather northern, not exactly what right-wing nutjobs get white-knuckles about when they think about the "latino menace."

[Lago PARANOIA]

With Mexico being the seat of Spanish-speaking and the United States being the seat of English-speaking for the near future (though the role will probably be usurped by India someday), it's likely that both countries will end up being about the same amount of bilingual about, oh, 50 years from now.

This of course assumes that the United States doesn't do something really, really dumb like close its borders in the near future and Mexico doesn't join the ranks of the most industralized nation during that time. If either happens then it's very likely that the United States is probably going to stay primary English-speaking. Mexico is almost undoubtedly going to become a bilingual country, if only because the English-language torch will be picked up by India as well.