Hilarious non-news: DDI blows, WotC scraps VTT

[NineInchNall]

What exactly are people doing on the net now that they weren't doing in the early to mid oughts? MMORPGs, Porn, Nerd Arguments, Email, Chat Rooms, Piracy, Social Networking, browser games, and virus distribution were all common by the late 90s.

Now THAT claim is crazy talk. Facebook didn't come around until 2004, and as you note, youtube was the next year. Then we have hulu, twitter, the transition of news media away from print, and all the rest. Smartphones and featurephones are ubiquitous; their application model has completely reshaped the way people expect to consume programs and information. Never even mind the epidemic of "connected devices". Hell, just look at the call share of skype then compared to now - <3% then and >13% now. The penetration of the internet into daily media consumption, social interaction, and general getting-stuff-done wasn't nearly as complete, and to assert otherwise is just plain stupid.

Sure, you could download pr0n, hit up mySpace, or pirate some music via napster/eDonkey back then, but the very suggestion that the industry hasn't changed dramatically is laughable.

[Chamomile]

Yeah, in the late 90s those things existed, but it's only recently that they're normal.

[Voss]

Sometime around 2006, the D&D team made a big presentation to the Hasbro senior management on how they could take D&D up to the $50 million level and potentially keep growing it. The core of that plan was a synergistic relationship between the tabletop game and what came to be known as DDI. At the time Hasbro didn't have the rights to do an MMO for D&D, so DDI was the next best thing. The Wizards team produced figures showing that there were millions of people playing D&D and that if they could move a moderate fraction of those people to DDI, they would achieve their revenue goals. Then DDI could be expanded over time and if/when Hasbro recovered the video gaming rights, it could be used as a platform to launch a true D&D MMO, which could take them over $100 million/year.

So the moral of the story is that D&D is worth jack shit, Hasbro remembered they absolutely fucked up the licensing rights for D&D computer games beyond all reason, and 4e was an abject failure that couldn't even breach the $50 mil mark.

[Seerow]

Sometime around 2006, the D&D team made a big presentation to the Hasbro senior management on how they could take D&D up to the $50 million level and potentially keep growing it. The core of that plan was a synergistic relationship between the tabletop game and what came to be known as DDI. At the time Hasbro didn't have the rights to do an MMO for D&D, so DDI was the next best thing. The Wizards team produced figures showing that there were millions of people playing D&D and that if they could move a moderate fraction of those people to DDI, they would achieve their revenue goals. Then DDI could be expanded over time and if/when Hasbro recovered the video gaming rights, it could be used as a platform to launch a true D&D MMO, which could take them over $100 million/year.

So the moral of the story is that D&D is worth jack shit, Hasbro remembered they absolutely fucked up the licensing rights for D&D computer games beyond all reason, and 4e was an abject failure that couldn't even breach the $50 mil mark.

Has any tabletop in history ever breached 50mil per year?

I really doubt it.

[Voss]

Sometime around 2006, the D&D team made a big presentation to the Hasbro senior management on how they could take D&D up to the $50 million level and potentially keep growing it. The core of that plan was a synergistic relationship between the tabletop game and what came to be known as DDI. At the time Hasbro didn't have the rights to do an MMO for D&D, so DDI was the next best thing. The Wizards team produced figures showing that there were millions of people playing D&D and that if they could move a moderate fraction of those people to DDI, they would achieve their revenue goals. Then DDI could be expanded over time and if/when Hasbro recovered the video gaming rights, it could be used as a platform to launch a true D&D MMO, which could take them over $100 million/year.

So the moral of the story is that D&D is worth jack shit, Hasbro remembered they absolutely fucked up the licensing rights for D&D computer games beyond all reason, and 4e was an abject failure that couldn't even breach the $50 mil mark.

Has any tabletop in history ever breached 50mil per year?

I really doubt it.

Eh, probably not. D&D probably had the best chance at it (of any TTRPG). But I was thinking of the argument from the passionate (and insane) 4e supporters who were translating hundreds of thousands of book sales into millions of books sold. And that was with two attempts at the 'movie thing' like Transformers, plus various license fees from the admittedly pathetic collection of current computer products (DDO and that horrible daggerfall thing), plus the novels, which probably account for a large chunk of what income they have. And in terms of sales (not profits), all that together should have added up to something. And keep in mind the Ryan quote was specifically annual sales. Hundreds of thousands of books at $30+ a pop, plus the number of times they've reprinted shitty Salvatore novels (they get new covers and reprints almost once a year), plus all the other crap they do... if they did it right, it should have been a reachable goal.

What is more telling is someone has some serious bullshit abilities, when Hasbro corporate policy is essentially saying 'shelve this shit for a decade or two, and see if we can't polish this turd up for the 2025 market.' 4e really shouldn't have happened and 5e should have drawn a slap across the face for whoever was pitching it to the higher-ups.

Because, the thing is, Hasbro is a billion dollar company, and frankly at this point, D&D barely registers to them as a thing that exists- as far as they are concerned the only part of WotC that matters is Magic.
http://investor.hasbro.com/releasedetai ... eID=615309

From toys and games, to television programming, motion pictures, video games and a comprehensive licensing program, Hasbro strives to delight its customers through the strategic leveraging of well-known and beloved brands such as TRANSFORMERS, LITTLEST PET SHOP, NERF, PLAYSKOOL, MY LITTLE PONY, G.I. JOE, MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY. The HUB, Hasbro's multi-platform joint venture with Discovery Communications (NASDAQ: DISCA, DISCB, DISCK) launched on October 10, 2010.

The fucking shitty little website that replays MLP episodes matters more to Hasbro than D&D does.

[Previn]

Keep in mind that as Hasbro sees it, money made from the D&D brand isn't always associated with the D&D table top game. Novel sales have historically been a larger source of income than the game itself, but Hasbro doesn't count those as part of the profit of D&D in terms of it's making 50 million a year or not.

3.5 had to have been making some decent bank that the number crunchers bought that it could be a 50 million a year money maker with the DDI and VTT subscriptions. WotC or Hasbro I don't remember which off the top of my head actually just got back the video game rights that they would have used 4e as a springboard to launch into MMO territory with.

Honestly if they had been able to move over say 600,000 people (1/10th their presumed market) to DDI with an average subscription income, they'd have hit their goal with some room left over even with overhead costs just thanks to DDI alone.

Besides DDI being a terrible, terrible 'thing' and VTT not existing, I suspect that they would have been doomed with this route even if they did have those things up and running in good time. The D&D crowd mostly overlaps with MMOs, the MMO crowd (as in WoW) doesn't overlap with D&D nearly as much.

Hasbro won't shelve D&D unless it's a loss to run. The 50 million mark isn't a 'you must be this profitable or else we scrap you' mark, it's the point at which a brand is doing well enough that Hasbro considers it worthwhile to invest more money into the IP to grow it. If D&D pulls in it's operating costs and some extra Hasbro lets it ride.

[Voss]

It doesn't count novels as part of brand? Where are you getting that from? Because frankly, the novels were one of the few things keeping the brand afloat in certain years.

The virtual table top was a horrible idea. With a few exceptions, it doesn't even make sense. To the average consumer, it isn't a way to facilitate play between people with real world distance between them. To those people, it is a computer game, but with shitty graphics and mechanics, and there are frankly better ones on the market.

As for Hasbro not shelving D&D... well. I don't think it is quite that simple. As far as Habro is concerned, they've got a division called WotC, and this Magic shit pulls in pretty good cash, both from the card game, the novels, and the computer versions. But WotC is also this weird pet project that pulls in a frankly trivial amount of cash (compared to the 1.38 billion dollars Hasbro pulled in last year). And yeah, it isn't likely to be killed unless the Magic money dries up, but sooner or later some chucklehead is going to say 'You know, we could make a hell of a lot more money if we put those people wasting time on D&D to work making a Transformers or My Little Pony game. Transfer them over to a moneymaker, or tell them to GTFO.'

[Prak]

sooner or later some chucklehead is going to say 'You know, we could make a hell of a lot more money if we put those people wasting time on D&D to work making a Transformers or My Little Pony game. Transfer them over to a moneymaker, or tell them to GTFO.'

And they'd probably be right to do so. Transformers and My Little Pony are already half hour toy commercials, and an RPG for one or the other would be huge money. Hell, they'd even have a pretty steady premade module line by just turning episodes into modules, sell 'em $5 each, and the 7-10 demographic will be inundated with them because a parent isn't going to have too much resistance to spending $5 a week to fuel their kid's social activity. After 10, the kids are probably writing their own.

Which really just shows, once again, that D&D needs it's own half hour toy commercial, as well as possibly a change to the miniatures scale. Size the whole thing up one step (so that medium creatures are on 2" bases like current large creatures), and make them customizable. Sell blanks in the major races, humans, elves, dwarves, etc. and then a bunch of weapons and armour and shit. Make the minis small action figure/dolls and people will buy them for their kids.

[Previn]

It doesn't count novels as part of brand? Where are you getting that from? Because frankly, the novels were one of the few things keeping the brand afloat in certain years.

Ah sorry, you're correct. I was confusing 2 different things in my head. Novels made up a roughly 60% of the D&D income, and income from video game licenses didn't count toward the profit of D&D.

Incidentally in looking that up I also found that D&D in the 3.5 days was a 25-30 million a year brand when 4e was pitched to Hasbro as per Ryan Dancey.

[Sashi]

How are the novels doing? I recall seeing new Dragonlance and Drizzt churned out as late as 2005 alongside some Eberron stuff. There are M:tG novels as well, so is WotC a full (if specific) publishing house or what's going on with that?

Does anyone have a rundown of D&D's licensing woes? I know Video Games and Movies are right fucked, but I don't remember the specifics. Do the movie rights extend all the way to TV rights?

They tried to do that D&D comic series but quick googling unearths no info past the first issue.

[Previn]

I know Video Games and Movies are right fucked, but I don't remember the specifics.

Hasbro got the digital rights back in August of 2011. Ref: http://company.wizards.com/content/hasb ... ts-dispute

[Sashi]

Well that's ... I don't even know if that helps anything, considering Bioware doesn't need D&D anymore.

[Prak]

The real issue is that the D&D brand is slowly starving, and piddling it's resources away on attempts to get more, which don't work. A D&D movie could be awesome, but they need major talent, which they won't get. Even Vin Diesel, Robin Williams and Will Wheaton are too busy making actual money to try to do something like that as a labour of love.
The same is true of a D&D MMO. They need better graphics, a more robust system, and a big name game studio, but WotC can't front the money for that. DDI and VTT were seriously their best hope, and they blew it. Honestly, at this point, possibly the best thing they could do is fire the current staff and try to get a merger with Paizo and make Pathfinder the official D&D game.

[infected slut princess]

How are the novels doing? I recall seeing new Dragonlance and Drizzt churned out as late as 2005 alongside some Eberron stuff. There are M:tG novels as well, so is WotC a full (if specific) publishing house or what's going on with that?

That is an interesting question. I mean, Forgotten Realms book are a pretty big deal, aren't they? Salvatore still does Drizzt books every year, I think. They are pretty lame from what I hear. Drizzt never faces a serious challenge so no one cares. Maybe if someone beat his whiny ass once and for all, it wouldn't be so pointless.

But anyway.

Did the 4e transition where they messed around with FR piss a bunch of people off so bad they jumped ship? Because when I was 10 I thought FR books were amazing, and if I had cared about FR when they changed to 4e I would have shit on my own face in disgust. If you read a summary of the 4e changes to FR, you will be so blown away by the retardation you will eat your own shit.

[OgreBattle]

Drizzt books every year, I think. They are pretty lame from what I hear. Drizzt never faces a serious challenge so no one cares.

Salvatore is quite aware of this so actually it's more like "How can Drizzt accomplish his goals when they involve protecting others much weaker than him?" Or it's just Drizzt surviving, when nobody else does.

He is basically the greatest melee combatant ever, but there are limits to how much a melee monster can change the world.

They've also been going into things like "well he's an Elf, a young one at that". Drizzt in the current timeline has outlived all of his companions. The only person from his past still hanging around is Entreri, whose managed to escape his human lifespan with some dabbling in shadow magic.

[Prak]

Actually, if Driz'zt were actually allowed to change the world as a melee monster, then people might start caring. I've never been interested in him at all, but it'd be a real shame if WotC actually kept a tight leash on Salvatore such that he wasn't allowed to break the DMF syndrome of D&D or have Driz'zt go and actually fix things in his world, like oppose the drow regime or find that Fearun had gone through a massive change and try to reverse it.

[Duke Flauros]

That is an interesting question. I mean, Forgotten Realms book are a pretty big deal, aren't they? Salvatore still does Drizzt books every year, I think. They are pretty lame from what I hear. Drizzt never faces a serious challenge so no one cares. Maybe if someone beat his whiny ass once and for all, it wouldn't be so pointless.

You can hate on him all you want, but he has helped keep DND afloat.

An interesting exercise would be to see if you could rescue Drizzt as a character.

But anyway.

Did the 4e transition where they messed around with FR piss a bunch of people off so bad they jumped ship? Because when I was 10 I thought FR books were amazing, and if I had cared about FR when they changed to 4e I would have shit on my own face in disgust. If you read a summary of the 4e changes to FR, you will be so blown away by the retardation you will eat your own shit.

Wasn't Faerun always utterly retarded?

[MfA]

Nostalgia could sell FR as it was ... but nostalgia can't sell this.

[Voss]

Wasn't Faerun always utterly retarded?

Somewhat, but it had some interesting ideas kicking about (including _why_ the big NPCs don't simply solve everything, which boiled down to all the big wizards would get involved in a MAD scenario). But then they did major damage to the setting with the transition to second edition Avatar crisis (why a rule change necessitated a background change wasn't ever clear to anyone), then did it again (and worse) for the change to 4th, advanced the timeline a century or so, and essentially obliterated the setting with brand new elements that essentially made it a completely new setting that didn't appeal to anyone.

[Username17]

FR was always full of stupid elements and the high level Wizard detente never made any sense. But it also had a bunch of cool stuff (being the kitchen sink setting one dirty old man ran for nearly forty years that also was the flagship of D&D for about 15 years and has as such been flooded with stuff from secondary and tertiary authors). And not to put too fine a point on it: but FR is the setting of Neverwinter Nights and Baldur's Gate. So if you actually wanted to ween people from computer games to RPGs, you'd play up that fact instead of setting fire to the entire fucking setting and starting over with a bunch of dragon furries wandering around.

-Username17

[Maxus]

When I was in highschool, I liked the Drizzt books because the Forgotten Realms setting had a vibe of "It's a big world out there; it's dangerous, but there's also a lot of cool stuff to make it worthwhile. Let's go exploring!"

There was a vibe that in most of the Drizzt books, the good guys were largely in charge and keeping the peace. Or at least that civilization was there, and you could go days in the wilderness without seeing monsters.

Of course, 4e wanked to that "Point of Light in a GrimDark World of GrimDarkness" idea because it removed the need to actually write up cities and towns and such, so obviously that had to go.

[MfA]

I wonder if marrying a subscription VTT with the living campaign could be successful.

Having maps and encounters pre-assembled makes running the living campaign modules a lot easier ... and they could give each subscriber a free weeks pass they could gift to a DM who runs their living campaign module to sweeten the deal a bit for DMs.

[Prak]

Hell, they could even employ all those people currently designing games who supposedly run great games, but don't know how to actually playtest, to run Living Whatsis games on the VTT.