Can someone explain to me what's going on in Greece?

[Username17]

If you have 200 000 euros of legal money to invest, why wouldn't you invest it in something paying better interest than a bank? Probably a few different investments to spread the risk around.

We aren't talking about CDs and shit. We're talking about bank deposits. Money that people put in a bank with the expectation that they were going to be able to fucking spend it. We're talking about the working accounts of businesses, we're talking about the proceeds of home sales, we're talking about the wages of people, we're talking about the expense accounts of tasks. We're talking about fucking bank deposits. The thing people are supposed to have when they want their money to be liquid and exchangeable for goods and services that are either very expensive or far away. Or even just if they want their money to be safer than leaving it on the kitchen table for a couple of days.

People don't have bank deposits because it is an investment, people have bank deposits because they are saving money that they want to be able to spend.

So: not so much sympathy to those caught there.

You're an idiot. If you take large amounts of bank deposits, you break up transactions that are under way. Schäuble wants to confiscate forty percent of those deposits, which means that if you were running a business like a wedding planner (where you hold a fair chunk of other peoples' money and spend it on their behalf), you are now bankrupt. You likely now owe more than your income. If you were purchasing a home or company, then all that money in the escrow account just shrank way the fuck down and the sale fails utterly - if the money was there because of a loan or previous house sale - you could be deeply in debt or homeless or both and not have any property to show for it.

Bank deposits are money that is active in the economy. Small deposits are supposed to be insured as actual money, while large deposits are generally money that is in the process of literally doing something at the moment. Freezing accounts and then confiscating the money out of the accounts would do tremendous harm to a lot of people, even before we get into the secondary effects of causing a bank run and destroying the economy that way.

-Username17

[Fuchs]

I expect them to extend the lockdown past easter, instead of reopening Banks tomorrow. Because once People can withdraw their Money they will do so, and place it somewhere where the People in Charge don't talk about taking it away on a whim.

[K]

I'm kind of wondering if this is the point where one of those Russian billionaire's finances a real-world version of Ocean's Eleven with Soviet black ops guys.

[Chamomile]

I don't see how any of this could possibly end well for Cyprus.

[Juton]

I don't see how any of this could possibly end well for Cyprus.

This. No matter what the Cyprian banks do people have got to have lost confidence in them. As much as people like to rail against the big banks, western society needs the little banks for day to day things. It will also be interesting to see how the EU handles this, even if the do nothing that may still be enlightening.

[Koumei]

If the EU do nothing, this could very well be the flag for many EU countries (ie "all the ones that aren't on a firm footing, preferably with their own currency and so on") to just jump ship and tell Merkel to go fuck herself. Because watching Germany literally go "So in order for us to save you, you need to shoot yourself. In the face. Okay, now that you did that... fuck you" could motivate such a decision, in a time when several countries are already going "You know, I'd like to leave, but surely the ECB will save us if we don't, right?"

So for countries that aren't called Cyprus, it might work out well in that scenario. Cyprus would be kind of fucked - and might be no matter how this plays out.

If we attribute the ECB's actions to incompetence, then this is entirely possible - this has all been a series of accidents and they end up going "I don't fucking know!" If we attribute it to malice, however, then they know this could happen, and don't want it to happen, so will do "just enough to convince everyone to stay in the abusive relationship".

Remember when all of Europe's problems were really simple, and could all be solved by invading Germany? I miss those times.

[sabs]

My personal favorite is where they told all the other countries in Europe that "Putting money in banks is like giving it to us. We can come in and take as much of it as we want anytime we feel like it. Thanks"

Why would any european risk putting more than temporry 1-3 day operating funds in a bank now?

[Chamomile]

Well we haven't tried invading Germany yet. Let's give it a shot, see what happens.

[Stahlseele]

Invading Germany? Really?
What happens is basically World War III
The NATO states have to help germany.
The UN has to sanction the US of A.

And at first the economy will tank even more than it does right now anyway.
Later on though, it actually might help. Little does as much for the Economy as a war i think.

[Chamomile]

Today, Stahlsee learns about sarcasm.

[Stahlseele]

is that a kind of food?

[Shatner]

Krugman speaks frankly about Cyprus

A correspondent whom I respect has (gently) challenged me to say plainly what I think Cyprus should do — leaving aside all questions about political realism. And he’s right: while I think it’s OK to spend most of my time on this blog working within the limits of the politically possible, and relying on a combination of reason and ridicule to push out those limits over time, once in a while I should just flatly state what I would do if given a chance.

So here it is: yes, Cyprus should leave the euro. Now.

The reason is straightforward: staying in the euro means an incredibly severe depression, which will last for many years while Cyprus tries to build a new export sector. Leaving the euro, and letting the new currency fall sharply, would greatly accelerate that rebuilding.

If you look at Cyprus’s trade profile, you see just how much damage the country is about to sustain. This is a highly open economy with just two major exports, banking services and tourism — and one of them just disappeared. This would lead to a severe slump on its own. On top of that, the troika is demanding major new austerity, even though the country supposedly has rough primary (non-interest) budget balance. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 20 percent fall in real GDP.

What’s the path forward? Cyprus needs to have a tourist boom, plus a rapid growth of other exports — my guess would be agriculture as a driver, although I don’t know much about it. The obvious way to get there is through a large devaluation; yes, in the end this probably does come down to cheap deals that attract lots of British package tours.

Getting to the same point by cutting nominal wages would take much longer and inflict much more human and economic damage.

But is it even possible to leave the euro? The Eichengreen point — that even a hint of exit would cause panicked capital flight and bank runs — is now moot: the banks are closed, and capital is controlled. So if I were dictator, I’d just extend the bank holiday long enough to prepare for the new currency.

OK, what about the bank notes? I’m no kind of expert in such matters, but I’ve heard suggestions to the effect that it might be possible to rush debit cards into circulation, so that business could resume without having to wait for someone to run the printing presses. The government might also be able to issue temporary scrip, IOUs that don’t look like proper bank notes, as a transitional measure.

Yes, it all sounds kind of desperate and improvised. But desperation is appropriate! Otherwise, we’re talking about Greek-level austerity or worse in an economy whose fundamentals, thanks to the implosion of offshore banking, are much worse than Greece’s ever were.

My guess is that none of this will happen, at least not right away, that the country’s leadership will fear the leap into the unknown that would come from euro exit despite the obvious horror of trying to stay in. But as I said, I think euro exit is now the right thing to do.

[Stahlseele]

a new currency has to be developed over years to make sure people can't fake it easy peasy though . .
and then you have to adapt the whole infrastructure to it too.
ATMs need to be completely swapped out because both software and hardware won't work with the new paper money.
Other automats like drinks dispensers, parking meters and the like need to be completely swapped out because they won't work with the new coins either.

[Mistborn]

My personal favorite is where they told all the other countries in Europe that "Putting money in banks is like giving it to us. We can come in and take as much of it as we want anytime we feel like it. Thanks"

So, correct me if I'm wrong, the ECB just said that it can reach into peoples bank accounts and take their money. The fact the they are threatening to do this thretens banks in the Eurozone with bank runs and is poised to trash Europes econemy even more.

Is the ECB full of incompatents or are the Germans trying to destroy Europe again.

[hyzmarca]

Invading Germany? Really?
What happens is basically World War III
The NATO states have to help germany.
The UN has to sanction the US of A.

And at first the economy will tank even more than it does right now anyway.
Later on though, it actually might help. Little does as much for the Economy as a war i think.

No, the USA shouldn't invade Germany. Cyprus should invade Germany. No one will be expecting it. It would be like The Mouse That Roared. They just need a field marshal, three men-at-arms, and twenty longbowmen.

What the EU really needs is a civil war between federalists and statists, preferably with the federalists winning. That would decisively settle the question of what powers the EU really has. Sadly, it doesn't look like that will happen any time soon. But we could at least good a minor brush war out of this shit, hopefully.

Maybe Cyprus will try to leave the Euro and the other Eurozone countries will invade it to prevent that from happening. And then maybe Turkey will get involved to protect it's interests in Northern Cyprus. That would be grand.

[Juton]

Call me paranoid, but I don't want to see Germany involved in another major war in my lifetime. You know what they say about practice making perfect.

[Stahlseele]

judging from what my people in the military tell me, we are still top notch both in know how and equipment . .
who knows how WWII would have ended if the aussie had not gone to war against russia . .

[Username17]

judging from what my people in the military tell me, we are still top notch both in know how and equipment . .
who knows how WWII would have ended if the aussie had not gone to war against russia . .

That's bizarre wishful thinking. Basically there's the United States and then everyone else. But when you go down to the "Not the US" level, there's the Russian Federation and then everyone else. Then you start getting into tiers where there are multiple countries in them. China, India, France and the United Kingdom can all kind of vaguely claim 3rd place. Germany is down in tier 4 with Italy, South Korea, and Brazil.

If you don't have a single aircraft carrier, no one is going to take your claims of being "top notch" in equipment seriously.

-Username17

[Stahlseele]

german submarines and tanks and jet fighters are still up there.
i will give you the carrier though.

[Koumei]

Doesn't Disney World have a bigger Navy than most countries?

Anyway, I'd like it known that I was being very tongue-in-cheek about the invading Germany part. I wouldn't want to give the impression that my understanding of the two world wars is that limited.

[Fuchs]

Germany doesn't have nukes, nuclear subs, or any real force projection capability worth a damn. It's currently going from conscript-based military to volunteer, and that's not easy. Mostly though, Germany lacks a viable military culture at the moment. Whenever their soldiers actually do something that hurts or kills the enemy, a large part of the media and political parties would like to treat that as a potential crime and send in the police to investigate. Heck, there was a big splash when the defense minister dared to call the Afghan Intervention "something like a war".

Basically, Germany is way too scared of being seen as waging war no matter the circumstances to be taken seriously as a military force.

[Stahlseele]

that much is true.

[ishy]

Germany does have nukes?
They just have a US label on them, but are stored in Germany and the German military practices using them.

[Stahlseele]

i actually forgot about that O.o

[Fuchs]

Spiegel revealed a bit ago that in 1962 the US Military actually mobilized a Company of Military Police with heavy machine guns and was ready to shoot germans when they feared the german defense minister might try to actually take possession of said nukes.