GnomeWorks wrote:Do we consider a level 1 anything to be a "competent specialist"?
Relative to other level 1 characters attempting a challenge appropriate to a level 1 character: certainly. Compared to characters attempting a challenge appropriate to a level 20 character: certainly not.
If it helps you to contextualize the question, imagine if instead of asking about a level 1 Rogue or Cleric slipping by an ordinary guard, I instead asked about a level 20 Rogue or Cleric slipping past the monster-goddess Ammit, perhaps as part of an attempt to steal the Feather of Ma'at.
The broadest possible way I can think of to phrase it is, "how often should someone who is supposed to be good/bad at what they do successfully overcome the kind of challenge you would expect someone like them to be faced with?" But that introduces all kind of ambiguity as to what is a "challenge you would expect," especially since there's not much in terms of a real-life basis for comparison of a "level 2 person" task versus a "level 3 person" task.
deaddmwalking wrote:1) Close to 100%. Probably 95%
2) Probably no better than 50%
3) Probably ~50%, but maybe up to 75%.
4) Probably close to 0% and probably no higher than 10%.
Thanks! Translating that into terms of the 2d10 RNG I'm currently modeling, it sounds like you evaluate the "rainy, moonless night" challenge as being somewhere in the 9 to 11 DC range (inclusive) and the "broad daylight" challenge as around DC 16 - 18. It seems that the Rogue has a bonus of somewhere between +4 and +6, while the Cleric has a bonus of +0.
Does that feel about right to you?
Chamomile wrote:You could probably stand to add 5-10% to your easy task success rate, but other than that it sounds about right. The two main symptoms of Three Stooges gameplay is when either failing an easy task is reasonably common (i.e. in Dark Heresy 2, starting characters have a ~25% chance of failing a Routine(+20) task even in areas they are very well qualified in, which is way too high even for a starting character) or to a lesser extent when succeeding at hard but nominally level-appropriate tasks is very unlikely.
Thanks! Assuming I raise the "easy" task chance to ~95%, when I translate this scenario into terms of the 2d10 RNG I'm using, I get this:
"Rainy, moonless night" challenge DC: 9-10
"Broad daylight" challenge DC: 15-16
Rogue sneak bonus: +4 or +5
Cleric sneak bonus: +0
Does that feel about right to you? It seems that you err a little bit to the side of more probable success than deaddmwalking, but so far you guys seem to be in a "Venn diagram" level of agreement.