Artorius: Those who desire old age need not apply

Elennsar · Post by **Elennsar** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 4:07 pm

Supposedly, 1/18.

Somehow, I doubt that you'd have exactly one success in every eighteen rounds, however.

Roy · Post by **Roy** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 6:37 pm

Giant Chocolate Melting Frog?

He's gotta roll a natural 20 on that Intelligence check eventually. I estimate the odds of him doing so, and thereby making some semblance of sense are about 1:20.

Keep up the good fight Grek.

Elennsar · Post by **Elennsar** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 6:39 pm

At some point, the fact that unless and until you make a roll, your odds of making #2 are zero will mean that the only people who care about their odds of three rolls in a row in play are the ones who made two already.

Parthenon · Post by **Parthenon** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 7:19 pm

Wait a moment. Are you saying that if you are rolling two d6, the chance of getting a 6 on the second is 0 before you roll the first, and then 1/6 after you roll the first?

Also, do you really think that players won't worry about the chances of winning the fight after next? I thought that the whole idea of dailies is so that players have to consider the fight after next?

I mean, I can almost see what you mean. Often when you can change tactics midway through actions, it is reasonable to only consider the chances of the next happening, and if you are all about the now it can happen anyway.

However, consider this example. You are at a junction and there are signs that you know to be accurate (who cares how) detailing what is ahead. To the left are three death traps, each with 50% chance of death. To the right is a group of ogres with 85% chance of death.

In this case, to decide which way to go down, you do need to consider the chance of surviving all three traps. In this example, it is 12.5% chance, so it is better to fight the ogres.

However, lets say that you missed the signs, and went down the left path, and survived the first trap before seeing more signs saying what is ahead. The chances of surviving all three traps considering that you have already survived one is 25% chance, so it is better to continue this corridor.

Yes, this won't come up in games because you won't be told precisely what the probabilities are. But, you can estimate the chances of hitting and how likely you are to kill enemies in a round, and you can use the estimation to make a decision about tactics. Often this is unconscious, but it can be conscious, especially if you have played the game a long time.

Elennsar · Post by **Elennsar** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 7:35 pm

Your chance of rolling "two sixes in a row" requires there to be a first six to have a second six.This is true whether you roll d6 or any other larger die type.

Also, do you really think that players won't worry about the chances of winning the fight after next? I thought that the whole idea of dailies is so that players have to consider the fight after next?

That's another issue - depleting resources in #1 that you would want in #2.

But the chance of having a #2 is entirely dependent on surviving #1. So if you have a 100% chance in fight #1, and a 10% chance in #2, you have a 100% chance of having a #2 and a 10% chance of a #3.

Yes, this won't come up in games because you won't be told precisely what the probabilities are. But, you can estimate the chances of hitting and how likely you are to kill enemies in a round, and you can use the estimation to make a decision about tactics. Often this is unconscious, but it can be conscious, especially if you have played the game a long time.

To a fair extent, that is true and a good thing. However, here's a problem situation.

You're fighting a berserker.

A berserker is more likely to hurt you than a normal opponent, and you are more likely to hurt him.

Are you better off fighting normally (so as to have a decent offense to take advantage of his lack of defense), or fighting very defensively (so as to wear him out)?

Excellent question.

As a design thing, I'm not entirely sure what I want it to do, but that's another story.

If you can precisely calculate exactly what the right move is and always end up safe and sound (regardless of rolls or the other guy's actions, especially the latter), something is wrong.