Koumei wrote:The crime rate is almost always dropping - it's unusual for it to actually spike, and tends to only happen when some big bad thing occurs that shakes everything up (for instance, it went through the holes in the roof during WWII, and that's not counting genocide and invasion as crimes, I just mean the sheer amount of burglary going on in Britain alone).
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So chances are, this is just a case of "Crime rate going down again, situation normal". Remember, the bit where old people complain about how "crime rates are skyrocketing, and we know this because:
That's not really true for the United States. See, you really have to just expect the worse when it comes to us. Especially in any discussion about criminal justice. Our crime rate increased steadily from 1960 onward to the 80's and 90's. Half of the past 50 years represent a gradual increase in crime for the United States. Most of those old bitching geezers spent their youth and middle age in a time when every generation was successively more violent than the last. By the time that stopped happening, their brains were old and mushy and they couldn't remember that "30 years ago" is a different thing from "now," and so the bitching continues.
Lago wrote:
Alternatively, to spin this back into weaksauce attempt of staying on-topic, do you think it has to do with having safe access to abortion and birth control? Maybe, but the crime wave in the U.S. peaked in the 80s, well after Roe v. Wade.
Weaksauce indeed. Also, violent crime actually peaked in the early 90's, with the 80's being a close second contender. For property crimes, the reverse is true; early 80's is the peak, early 90's is a second, smaller peak. But anyway, more on topic to your question: it's complicated. Way more complicated than social safety nets and income inequality. And it probably has nothing to do with abortion and birth control, but there's going to be a correlation with abortion and birth control because the same people who want abortion and birth control know how to solve the crime problem, so when you give them power both happen.
But criminal motivations come in a lot of flavor. You have criminal enterprises, you have violent criminal enterprises (yes, they're distinct; compare Al Capone to the people he replaced. Al Capone basically murdered his way to the top of what was previously a far less violent world of criminal enterprise), you have white collar crimes, you have romance murders, you have hardcore drug addicts who commit crimes to support their habit, you have crimes people commit to support their lifestyle (whether that lifestyle is "having food to eat" or "wanting an mp3 player" or "having free music and movies"), you have culturally-driven violent conflict-resolution.
Every single one of those is a different problem caused by different factors in society and you solve each of them differently.
Cool things about young people today:
1) Romance murders and marital murders are going down. They are a lot more level-headed about their relationships.
2) Violent conflict overall is just going down. They are less likely to get pissed at eachother and start swinging.
3) Hardcore drug addiction is down, despite Reagan being a fuckwad.
All of those help, and most of them are a product of social engineering in schools we really started working on in the 90's, and now we're seeing returns on it.