Pathfinder Is Still Bad

hogarth · Post by **hogarth** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:16 pm

Koumei wrote:There's a Witch archetype that lets you play as Bayonetta. Except your hair has to be white, apparently. So it totally isn't Bayonetta!

Have you ever seen The Bride with White Hair?

icyshadowlord · Post by **icyshadowlord** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:48 pm

Nothing new on the Pathfinder front?

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:56 pm

Maybe in June-July, when they release the Advanced Class Guide. Which is a pretty scheduling stupid decision because 5E D&D will be just around the corner. And whether or not 5E D&D turns out to be a hot pile of ass or the ACG turns out to be unexpectedly good is irrelevant because the former will suck up all of the oxygen in the room for several months.

But other than that, not really.

erik · Post by **erik** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:12 am

I could see Paizo putting something out to compete with 5e's open since you don't leave people with nothing else new to buy during that period. You put something out and you make it shiny and distracting.

And really, "(5e) will suck up all of the oxygen in of the room"? You had my agreement up til the 'all the air in the room' bit.

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:29 am

If Paizo had a really big release planned for Q3/Q4 2014 like a Player's Handbook 2 or a combination of Master Feat Guide and Master Spell Guide along with a new campaign setting then it would make sense to try to head off 5E D&D at the pass. But they're just releasing a B-list class handbook. It'll certainly be profitable, but it's not going to make more of a proportional impact than, say, the 3.5E Forgotten Realms Player's Guide.

Unless Mike Mearls is literally the most incompetent game designer in the history of TTRPGs -- and I'm without hyperbole talking more incompetent than the guy who did fucking FATAL -- 5E D&D is going to be the hot talk of the town for 2-3 months. Even 4E D&D managed to last that fucking long.

OgreBattle · Post by **OgreBattle** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:41 am

Dreamscarred is releasing their Tome of Battle around that time

...You Lost Me · Post by **...You Lost Me** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:45 am

June/July is the golden time period of selling RPG books, right? Or did I make that up? I swear I saw it somewhere.

It could be a game of chicken. PF threatening to hurt 5e's sales by publishing around the same time, and 5e threatening to make people forget about the ACG until it's well-entrenched in the PFSRD and no one cares to buy it anymore.

Slade · Post by **Slade** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:27 pm

icyshadowlord wrote:Nothing new on the Pathfinder front?

People are arguing if a feat that lets you wield a 2 handed weapon in one hand means you can wield a large 2 handed in 2 hands or Dual wield them.
Thunder and Fang: http://paizo.com/threads/rzs2qoko?PFS-T ... h-Breakers

Also, Does Successful Trip mean winning the maneuver or knocking opponent prone:
http://paizo.com/threads/rzs2qqig?Can-you-trip-him

Nothing big.

Rawbeard · Post by **Rawbeard** » Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:49 pm

Wow, those guys are really bored.

hogarth · Post by **hogarth** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:55 am

Lago PARANOIA wrote:Maybe in June-July, when they release the Advanced Class Guide. Which is a pretty scheduling stupid decision because 5E D&D will be just around the corner. And whether or not 5E D&D turns out to be a hot pile of ass or the ACG turns out to be unexpectedly good is irrelevant because the former will suck up all of the oxygen in the room for several months.

You think they should stop all business for several months when 5E comes out? Sounds like a brilliant strategy.

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:04 am

hogarth wrote:You think they should stop all business for several months when 5E comes out?

So what's the alternative? Release a B-list sourcebook and plod along with Pathfinder Society when no one is paying attention? There's a reason why video game companies release the latest-gen models at around the same time and release their B-list devices between skirmishes.

If Pathfinder wasn't going to the mattresses with their A-list material (such as a Player's Handbook 2 or a brand spanking new campaign setting), then they should release their shit before or after the hype for 5E. Unless 5E D&D ends up sucking all that is ass, do you really think that people are going to pop an extra 20-30 dollars for a game incompatible with the one they're spending 90-120 dollars for?

Rawbeard · Post by **Rawbeard** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:31 am

the ACG is pretty much a PHBII and what would be the point of a new campaign setting? Pathfinder is Pazo's shtick, expanding it might make sense, but creating competition to it? You make little sense.

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:41 am

If the Advanced Class Guide really is a PHBII or at least an Ultimate Magic then mea culpa. However:

Most importantly, the book contains 10 new classes, each one of which combines features from two existing classes to give you a brand new play experience. This playtest focuses on these 10 classes, including complete rules for the arcanist, the bloodrager, the brawler, the hunter, the investigator, the shaman, the skald, the slayer, the swashbuckler, and the warpriest.

That sounds more like an Oriental Adventures or Complete Warrior book to me than anything.

Rawbeard wrote:and what would be the point of a new campaign setting?

What the hell do you mean, what would be the point of a new campaign setting? Forgotten Realms and Eberron were 3E's moneymaker settings. Hell, the only hype 4E D&D had after its release that wasn't for Essentials crap was for the Dark Sun campaign setting.

Now while I doubt that Pathfinder could get things to Forgotten Realms level in less than 3-4 years short of some mainstream hype, getting a campaign setting at least as popular as Eberron is well within their capabilities. I could understand why they don't have one now because writers and artists are tough to herd; but if they're looking for something to reinvigorate their product line and use as a weapon against 5E D&D it's a very obvious starting point.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:50 am

hogarth wrote:
Lago PARANOIA wrote:Maybe in June-July, when they release the Advanced Class Guide. Which is a pretty scheduling stupid decision because 5E D&D will be just around the corner. And whether or not 5E D&D turns out to be a hot pile of ass or the ACG turns out to be unexpectedly good is irrelevant because the former will suck up all of the oxygen in the room for several months.
You think they should stop all business for several months when 5E comes out? Sounds like a brilliant strategy.

Why is it you sound increasingly like a very stupid contrarian? Yes, delaying a major product that you would otherwise expect to sell fantastically (it's a ten class splat) so that its release doesn't coincide with the next edition of D&D is a fantastic idea. Because 5e is going to suck up the TTRPG market's spending money on brand name alone, and your launch is going to underperform. And you don't get to do a second launch. Now, how much breathing room you should give 5e is a complicated question I'm probably not equipped to answer, but if I were in their shoes I'd either drop two classes from the ACG and promise them as free web enhancements in order to move up the launch to a little before Summer 2014 or (if I expected 5e to bomb post-launch) delay ACG until after 5e had lost most of its steam and push out smaller shovelware in the meantime.

I really would not get into a pissing contest with 5e. It is still the bigger brandname and it's very likely to die on its own. I'd be much more interested in making sure ACG is the moneymaker you'd expect from a ten class splat, and that means giving it some space from its major competitors.

hogarth · Post by **hogarth** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:50 am

Lago PARANOIA wrote:
hogarth wrote:You think they should stop all business for several months when 5E comes out?
So what's the alternative? Release a B-list sourcebook and plod along with Pathfinder Society when no one is paying attention?

Wait -- you think that as soon as 5E comes out, everyone who's playing Pathfinder now is suddenly going to stop buying Pathfinder products and start buying 5E products? In Mike Mearls's dreams, maybe.

TiaC · Post by **TiaC** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:00 am

No, but a lot of casuals will want to check out the hot new thing. Paizo might be able to leverage PFS to retain some, but most of the gamers you meet at your FLGS will buy it just because of the name.

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:12 am

hogarth wrote:Wait -- you think that as soon as 5E comes out, everyone who's playing Pathfinder now is suddenly going to stop buying Pathfinder products and start buying 5E products?

You probably think that this is clever snark, but for gamers who aren't trust fund babies that is exactly how it works. 5E D&D asks players to drop 90-120 dollars on core books and because it has fucking Dungeons and Dragons on the cover it gets a lot of takers. For the people who bought the game that is 90-120 dollars less out of the entertainment budget and makes it less likely that they'll buy new videogames or other TTRPG books.

A few months later, a lot of people who wanted 5E D&D books have them and they have money in their TTRPG budget again. So if 5E D&D isn't doing it for them they go back onto their old spending habits. If 5E D&D is doing well then people will devote their monthly entertainment budgets to more 5E D&D products and Paizo might want to consider a counter-attack. If 5E D&D doesn't do well then people start looking at other games or give up on the hobby altogether.

Now, if Paizo is extremely confident in their work they might decide to head 5E D&D off at the path and offer an alternative to 5E D&D during its coming-out party. If it's not good enough, Paizo falls flat on their ass and ends up selling less product than if they had released it early or later. If it is good enough then people buy Pathfinder crap as well and some people will buy it instead of 5E D&D material. From what I see, the Advanced Class Guide doesn't really have what it takes to go up against a new release of D&D despite the parent company whipping their competitor for quite some time.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:19 am

hogarth wrote:
Lago PARANOIA wrote:
hogarth wrote:You think they should stop all business for several months when 5E comes out?
So what's the alternative? Release a B-list sourcebook and plod along with Pathfinder Society when no one is paying attention?
Wait -- you think that as soon as 5E comes out, everyone who's playing Pathfinder now is suddenly going to stop buying Pathfinder products and start buying 5E products? In Mike Mearls's dreams, maybe.

Are you suggesting that D&D 5e isn't going to have significant sales at launch? Are you suggesting that consumers have infinite money, and the sales of 5e won't impact sales of Pathfinder products? Are you suggesting that the Pathfinder fanbase is completely separate from potential consumers of 5e? Because those are the sorts of statements that have to hold before the ACG isn't hurt by launching alongside 5e.

On the flipside, if you get the ACG out before people start thinking about purchasing 5e, the ACG is a huge splat of ten classes (people eat that shit up) that people will buy. And the same is true if you wait for 5e to launch and implode. But 5e, shitty or not, is going to sell at launch because of its brand name and that's going to hurt the sales of competing products launched in its shadow.

You're not being clever here, and I don't know why you think you are. You're genuinely asserting that TTRPG's aren't in competition with one another, and that is exactly as embarrassingly dumb as it sounds.

hogarth · Post by **hogarth** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:27 am

Lago PARANOIA wrote:
hogarth wrote:Wait -- you think that as soon as 5E comes out, everyone who's playing Pathfinder now is suddenly going to stop buying Pathfinder products and start buying 5E products?
You probably think that this is clever snark, but for gamers who aren't trust fund babies that is exactly how it works. 5E D&D asks players to drop 90-120 dollars on core books and because it has fucking Dungeons and Dragons on the cover it gets a lot of takers. For the people who bought the game that is 90-120 dollars less out of the entertainment budget and makes it less likely that they'll buy new videogames or other TTRPG books.

A few months later, a lot of people who wanted 5E D&D books have them and they have money in their TTRPG budget again.

I certainly agree that some people will leave Pathfinder for 5E, at least temporarily (although I think to say that "no one is paying attention" to Pathfinder when it comes out is a gross exaggeration). I don't understand how the best solution for "our cashflow is lower than expected this month" is "we should have no cashflow at all this month".

[quote="Lago PARANOIA""]Now, if Paizo is extremely confident in their work they might decide to head 5E D&D off at the path and offer an alternative to 5E D&D during its coming-out party. If it's not good enough, Paizo falls flat on their ass and ends up selling less product than if they had released it early or later.[/quote]
I think I see what you're trying to say now: you're comparing a splatbook to a Hollywood movie, where it has to make its costs back in the first two weekends after its release otherwise it'll be a flop. I don't think it works that way. Older splatbooks continue to bring in money long after they're first published; for instance, on Amazon.ca, the Pathfinder APG (which is 3 years old) is #17 in sales for RPG books whereas Ultimate Combat and Ultimate Magic are #65 and #62 in sales.

The fact is that Pathfinder is on the "splatbook treadmill" phase of its operation now; if they have reduced sales on splatbook #1,437, then they'll just have to make it up on splatbook #1,438 which is coming two months later (or not, as the case may be). Keeping money coming in is the primary concern.

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:16 pm

hogarth wrote:I don't understand how the best solution for "our cashflow is lower than expected this month" is "we should have no cashflow at all this month".

1.) If you salami slice the time period small enough, this argument works for justifying any release. Pathfinder should look at their cash flow over a quarter, if not a year, rather than worrying about individual months.

2.) Pathfinder will not have 'no cashflow'. People will still buy old books and shit. Pathfinder still has subscriptions to Pathfinder Society.

I think I see what you're trying to say now: you're comparing a splatbook to a Hollywood movie, where it has to make its costs back in the first two weekends after its release otherwise it'll be a flop. I don't think it works that way. Older splatbooks continue to bring in money long after they're first published; for instance, on Amazon.ca, the Pathfinder APG (which is 3 years old) is #17 in sales for RPG books whereas Ultimate Combat and Ultimate Magic are #65 and #62 in sales.

Are you incapable of making any argument that's not some kind of ridiculous distortion? Less sales does not mean flop, but less sales means less sales. And like it or not but most non-sleeper releases make less money over time regardless of its individual quality. There are exceptions like The Wizard of Oz and Austin Powers 1, but by and large the further you get from the release date the fewer sales you make. And it's not hard to imagine why; peoples' e-mail inboxes fill up with news of other releases, bookstores move products from behind the front counter to the regular shelf, product links move off of the websites' front page, and bloggers and forums fixate on the new Shiny Thing.

The fact is that Pathfinder is on the "splatbook treadmill" phase of its operation now; if they have reduced sales on splatbook #1,437, then they'll just have to make it up on splatbook #1,438 which is coming two months later (or not, as the case may be). Keeping money coming in is the primary concern.

First of all, it's not even clear that it's possible for Pathfinder or anyone to make up money on splatbook #1438. Market saturation and all.

Second of all, that still doesn't invalidate the fact that profit depends on timing. Again, people anticipate events that will cause a drop in sales (competitor release, Spring finals, Fed announces a tighter monetary policy scheduled for Q4) or will cause an increase in them (popular Hollywood tie-in, Chrismas) all the damn time.

I mean, shit, surely you've heard of the Summer/Christmas Blockbuster, right? Why does Hollywood sit on movies -- especially big-name movies like the Avengers or The Two Towers -- for months at a time instead of just releasing them as soon as the production team finalizes it? All those wasted months!

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:16 pm

Hogarth wrote:I certainly agree that some people will leave Pathfinder for 5E, at least temporarily (although I think to say that "no one is paying attention" to Pathfinder when it comes out is a gross exaggeration). I don't understand how the best solution for "our cashflow is lower than expected this month" is "we should have no cashflow at all this month".

Sales for luxury items like this are almost always highest at launch and then steadily fizzle out. Launch is an incredibly important time you don't want to fuck up, because the odds are very good that fucking up your launch means your product will just have less total sales and not that those sales will just happen later.

Hogarth wrote:Older splatbooks continue to bring in money long after they're first published; for instance, on Amazon.ca, the Pathfinder APG (which is 3 years old) is #17 in sales for RPG books whereas Ultimate Combat and Ultimate Magic are #65 and #62 in sales.

For fuck's sake, Hogarth. The amazon top 100 Best Sellers list for gaming includes the 3.5 Monster Manual III. Has it occured to you that what you're actually seeing is a market that doesn't have a lot of noticeable releases, such that its few noticeable releases will persist in the top 100 for virtually ever, which gives you very little room to intuit information about whether sales are strong or not?

Or more succinctly: what else do you expect to see there?

A Man In Black · Post by **A Man In Black** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:41 pm

While I'm sure roleplaying Vic Wertz and Lisa Stevens is amusing, this is all speculation based on absolutely zero knowledge of Paizo's sales numbers or internal workings. There's no possible way to know if anyone is right.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:54 pm

A Man In Black wrote:While I'm sure roleplaying Vic Wertz and Lisa Stevens is amusing, this is all speculation based on absolutely zero knowledge of Paizo's sales numbers or internal workings. There's no possible way to know if anyone is right.

Um, wat? Sales petering out after launch is just a well-documented fact in the entertainment/hobby industry. That is just what sales for these sorts of products do, and that is why strong launches are so important. If you are claiming that a specific product is a magical exception, the burden of proof is very clearly on you. Hogarth doesn't get equal consideration here because his claims are extraordinary.

Avoraciopoctules · Post by **Avoraciopoctules** » Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:06 pm

http://paizo.com/store/byCompany/d/drea ... /pathOfWar

Is this looking like it's going to be any good? I liked ToB back in 3.x D&D, and if this is basically similar, I might want to pick up the book when it comes out.

rasmuswagner · Post by **rasmuswagner** » Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:16 pm

Avoraciopoctules wrote:http://paizo.com/store/byCompany/d/drea ... /pathOfWar

Is this looking like it's going to be any good? I liked ToB back in 3.x D&D, and if this is basically similar, I might want to pick up the book when it comes out.

IME, Dreamscarred Press writes some pretty good stuff.