Election 2016

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Post by violence in the media »

Hiram McDaniels wrote: Clinton had a strong showing, even if some of her answers were unsatisfactory. I'm prepared to vote for her if I have to.
I think I get what you're saying here, but I'm puzzled by the unspoken alternatives.

Like, is it possible that Clinton could have said things that would cause you to abstain from voting, if she were the Democratic nominee? Is there anything that anyone on the Democratic stage could say or do that would cause you to vote for whoever the Republicans nominate?

I guess I'm wondering if there are truly any "independent" voters out there and, if there are, what are their decision conflicts? How many issues are there where one party's platform is not largely antithetical to the opposing viewpoint? Both parties might have stances on a dear-to-you issue that you personally disagree with; but why wouldn't you then evaluate things holistically and align with whoever is closest?
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Post by Username17 »

A lot of people, especially on the left, feel that they can influence policy by boycotting their preferred political party at the polls if they fail to meet whatever standards of ideological purity they think are important. There are times this is an effective strategy.

However, I think that this century has shown us that the stakes of every election are currently so high that going on strike and letting the other side win in an effort to force your party to woo you harder next time is not a viable plan. But if we were just talking about city council or some fucking thing, that might still work.

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Post by Hiram McDaniels »

RobbyPants wrote:And she did. There was more than one point there Sanders or O'Malley would lead in with something, and Clinton would have to chime in for how she stands for that, too.
I find it difficult to believe that she really wants to reform the corrupt banking system, when her biggest campaign contributor is Citibank.

RobbyPants wrote:Yeah, his defense on why he voted for Glass Steagall was painful. It's the one time I heard the audience laugh at one of the candidates.
He mentioned the Iraq vote which was 99 to 1, and the Glass-Steagal vote which was 95 to 5...in both instances Bernie Sanders was in the minority. As far as I'm concerned, he has an unimpeachable record in the senate. Sanders, not Chaffee.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

Even if Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders suffer heart attacks and Webb becomes the nominee, I am prepared to stand out in the rain for hours in order to vote for the Democratic nominee.

Yeah, I said earlier in the thread that I would consider not doing it -- though my reasons were Machivellian, not purity-based -- but after Trump being frontrunner for almost three months on the back of fascism? Fuck. That. Even if Trump doesn't win, the GOP needs to know that this shit is totally fucking unacceptable so they will never even be tempted to do that eliminationist herrenvolk shit ever again.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by RobbyPants »

Hiram McDaniels wrote:
RobbyPants wrote:And she did. There was more than one point there Sanders or O'Malley would lead in with something, and Clinton would have to chime in for how she stands for that, too.
I find it difficult to believe that she really wants to reform the corrupt banking system, when her biggest campaign contributor is Citibank.
I'm not saying she wants to or would ever try. I said that it looked like their lead-in compelled her to say "Look at me! I'm a progressive, too!"
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Post by DSMatticus »

RobbyPants wrote:She wasn't the only one doing that, but I did get this "hey, I'm a progressive, too!" vibe from her.
You should, because she is a moderate playing pretend for votes. Even if you believe she intends to stick to her campaign platform once she's elected, eight years is a long fucking time to do so for someone who ultimately does not believe and is not interested in the things she is promising. I wager that Hillary's whitehouse administration will be significantly more infuriating than Obama's, and Obama is bringing us a trade deal whose most observable effects will likely be medical bankruptcies and preventable deaths. It's been awhile, but didn't he campaign on some sort of healthcare thing? I vaguely recall... :roll: Seems we've come full circle.

No, Clinton's only real saving grace is that she is not a Republican. Which is... really all she needs to win my vote in the general, given how fucking crazy the Republican party has been for the past my entire life plus a decade or two. But I'm still going to taste bile if forced to cast that particular vote, because the only thing I'm really voting for is the gentler of two dickings.
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Post by Ancient History »

The standards for being a progressive in the US are very low. That's part of the thing with the GOP pulling so far to the right; a center-right moderate like Obama or Hillary Clinton looks like a crazed revolutionary socialist compared to Jeb "I Would Eat A Baby If It Increased My Polling Numbers" Bush.
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Post by Josh_Kablack »

Um, RobbyPants, that's actually Chafee's muddled nonpology for voting to repeal Glass Steagall. Either way it would show that he's lousy at campaigning as he csn't defend his record, but voting to repeal is the opposite of voting for.
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Post by RobbyPants »

Yes, you're right.
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Post by MisterDee »

Unfortunately, I expect the only short-term benefit of Sanders' run will be to have brought back the actual concept of a serious left-wing candidate for future elections (and presumably pave the way for a Warren or As Yet Unknown Left-Leaner run in eight/twelve years)

It's still progress - just not as much as you guys probably need.
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Post by erik »

Now Warren said she wouldn't run for President... but did she rule out VP?

Clinton/Warren would have some serious traction. I actually can't think of a VP candidate that would make me more excited. It would be a loss to the Senate though. Then again congress is a total clusterfuck and I can see wisdom in wanting to get out of there.
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Post by Username17 »

Image

I for one, am prepared to believe the establishment democrats like Hillary Clinton when they say that they intend to do things that Wall Street will not like. Wall Street money has come pretty thoroughly on the side of the republicans, and like the NRA I think the days of the democratic establishment kowtowing are at an end. Bernie Sanders is totally right that there was a time in the extremely recent past that if you were a leftist from a state with a lot of rural people you still had to make peace with the NRA. Similarly, it wasn't that long ago that you couldn't get elected as a democrat from an urban area without banker semen in your hair. But now the claws are out and the NRA and the financial sector is going to throw their money behind the republican nominee no matter what the democrats say or do. On the democratic debate stage you had candidates bragging about pissing off the gun lobby and the financial lobby. I don't think they were lying, I think we've seen a sea change in how those groups spend their donations and a resulting change in incentives for politicians.

Hillary is an interesting case in that she has been campaigning for whatever she thought she could actually get done through the system. Remember that Don't Ask Don't Tell was intended as an improvement in the way Gays were treated (not that it turned out that way). The first people who wanted to repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell wanted it replaced with "active persecution of gay people." Hillary's health care plans (both of them) were way to the left of what Obama was offering.

I understand that people want a leftist firebrand who tells them what they want to hear. So do I. But the reality is that having someone out there pushing for achievable incremental goals is also necessary. Hillary's "I'm a progressive who likes to get things done." was the best thing she could have said for getting my vote, and she has it.

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Post by Ancient History »

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Post by erik »

Ancient History wrote:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ben ... a1ce622105

Carson focuses on his book tour.
Surprising no one.

Has Trump said who would handle his Real Estate business if he were to be elected? (ha ha, I know)
If he doesn't even have a plan or answer then that's a pretty good indication he's not really in it to win. I'd be surprised if nobody has asked him that yet, but a quick googling yielded nought.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

Carson is being dismissed as a fringe candidate. But while the doctor is legitimately crazy, and not in a not crazy-like-a-fox way like Trump, Carson does have legitimate grassroots support. My hypothesis is that he's sucking up all of the religious right voters. And while the religious right is about a fourth of the Presidential Republican voting base, with the party fractured like it is he stands a good shot.

I don't know if he'll be as resilient as Trump is, but unlike Fiorina (whom as I predicted, is quickly deflating without the VSP pumping her campaign up) Carson does seem to have a legitimate base of support.

The other big story is how poorly Jeb! Bush is doing. Right now, there's some serious talk about his donor base abandoning him and shifting to Rubio. The problem with that strategy is... Rubio right now is regarded as a traitor and an arch-cuckservative for his immigration reform proposal. If Rubio wants to do much better than Jeb in the short-term, he'll have to go full-on nativist. But if he does that, he loses all of his establishment GOP appeal.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by Kaelik »

Lago PARANOIA wrote:Carson is being dismissed as a fringe candidate. But while the doctor is legitimately crazy, and not in a not crazy-like-a-fox way like Trump, Carson does have legitimate grassroots support. My hypothesis is that he's sucking up all of the religious right voters. And while the religious right is about a fourth of the Presidential Republican voting base, with the party fractured like it is he stands a good shot.
Are you seriously now defending Carson as a legitimate candidate too. Do you have any bounds at all?
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Post by name_here »

I think if the establishment republicans could get their act together and team up behind one candidate, they'd be able to win with a landslide. They're splitting the non Tea Party vote too many ways at present, and they need to narrow that down before the huge March 1 primary.
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Post by Ancient History »

Romney consolidated the field at the end and he still only mustered 47% of the votes - and Obama won with a landslide. Getting all the Republicans to vote for you because the tribe paints you red and places you on a pedestal is not enough to win the general election. You need to work to get people that wouldn't normally vote to come out to vote, especially in possibly switch states.
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Post by name_here »

I mean a landslide in the primary, not the general election.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

Kaelik wrote:Are you seriously now defending Carson as a legitimate candidate too.
His fundraising numbers don't lie. Carson is kicking ass in that department and unlike the establishment candidates he's making his money mostly through grassroots. Will it last? Going by past history, it probably won't. But right now he's getting real support -- not the silly season support that 2011-2012 Gingrich/Bachmann/Cain/Trump got.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by Almaz »

Hiram McDaniels wrote:Sanders has been largely ignored by the mainstream media, but now has a lot of exposure. I think I read that his twitter followers shot up by like 30k immediately after the debates. Anyway seniors love him and millennials love him...he's probably not going to win the nomination, but he's enough of a threat that Clinton has to wave the progressive flag.
I'm probably going to the primary for Sanders. If he has the old people vote, and he has the young people vote, that's most of the people who are going to fucking vote anyways, eh? Especially the old people, really.

In practice, every president has had to compromise in some way anyways, with the exceptions of when people push bills in on extreme circumstances. But sheer bullheadedness seems to actually be a winning tactic. Democrats managed to force the ACA through, even in a mangled state, and for a lot of people that has been an actual factual life or death improvement. So I'd rather take half of Sanders than most of Hillary's.

But never has it been more true that any Democrat is more acceptable than any Republican. Even the right wing candidates who seemed sane are being sucked in by the sheer gravity of Trump's awfulness. Right now I can't imagine even a Senator or House Republican being acceptable, given that they'd inevitably march in lockstep with whatever horribleness the Right is doing, like all those fucking "government shutdowns."
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Post by MGuy »

I'm not interested in the right beyond the anomaly that is Trump. I'm only really hoping that Sanders can somehow overcome Hillary so I can have voted for two Presidents in my lifetime that I actually WANT to lead the nation.
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Post by Prak »

Well, it seems the actual viewers pretty strongly think that Sanders won the debate. Media, on the other hand, including Time Warner owned CNN, say Hillary won. Because Time Warner contributed to her campaign.

I have no idea what impact that has on the election overall, but I'd be surprised if the media trying to say Hillary won the debate didn't impact it at all.
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Post by Username17 »

There is definitely a difference in enthusiasm between Hillary supporters and Bernie supporters. This is to be expected, Bernie is running promising to fight for what we want, while Hillary is running promising to deliver what we can get.

Sanders wins all the polls of self selected groups chiming in on who won the debate. By a huge margin. All the online polls, all the focus groups (of course, I don't think we should forget that the FOX focus group is carefully put together to give the answer that Rupert Murdoch wants, and they obviously are most afraid of Hillary). But as noted here, Hilary actually came out on top of the randomly selected polls. That is, if you ask a random democrat who won, 62% say Hillary; while if you put up a sign asking democrats to come to you to tell you who they think won then three quarters of the people who put in the effort say Bernie.

The people who think Hillary won just aren't all that agitated about it. They don't have to be, because she was already winning. And they aren't going to be, because Hillary is promising another 8 years of careful maneuvering and steady incremental progressive change that will be in large part poll driven as she picks battles she thinks she can win as we steadily win the culture war. Yawn.

But TL;DR: Sanders "won" because he put in a good performance and got his message out and it was a message people wanted to hear. Hillary "won" because she was winning before and she is still winning now. In the sense of "who is more likely to be president" the victory clearly goes to Clinton. She didn't piss away any of her lead and helped bury a bunch of stupid media speculation about whether her campaign was floundering. She accomplished all she needed to do and then some. Sanders did more on that stage than he probably thought was possible a year or two ago, but to actually become President he needed to have put Clinton on the back foot. And he didn't.

Sanders is looking better for VP though.

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Post by Grek »

I would be thrilled to have a Clinton/Sanders ticket, but I know that's not realistic.
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