Fuchs wrote:People don't destroy civilizations because civilizations do not present a global threat. But if something actually threatened the world? Why do you think the world would not nuke it, pat each other on the back, and then go back to business as usual?
Because historically they don't do that. All out war against a powerful country is not something that countries do very often. When the Soviets invaded Czechoslovakia, who attacked the Soviet Union? What about when the Nazis conquered Czechoslovakia?
Chamberlain wrote:My good friends, this is the second time in our history that there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. And now I recommend you to go home and sleep quietly in your beds.
Seriously, how eager do you think countries of the world are to escalate conflict with a powerful threat of unknown (but provably significant) military capabilities? They don't blow the fuck out of North Korea, and we
know how many mega cities they can credibly threaten to destroy on the way down (two). Do you really think that countries are going to line up to be the first to escalate things to the city destruction phase when they
don't know how many cities they are going to lose?
Honestly, if you're even
asking the question "How many cities are we going to lose?", the vast majority of world leaders are not going to make that call. Holland doesn't invade countries of comparable or larger size to themselves. Atrocities in Myanmar and North Korea are penalized only with trade embargoes. If those countries were truly self sufficient, their mass murders would go
completely unpunished.
Seriously: name a line that would
actually cause the nations of Europe to go to war with a country more powerful than Libya. Yes, getting their oil supplies threatened was enough to provoke France into throwing bombs into a Libyan civil war. But getting their gas pipeline cut didn't provoke Poland to go to war with Ukraine. Having the oil supplies threatened with closing did not provoke Germany to bomb Iran.
Yes, countries start shit with other countries of equal or greater military might
in Africa. Also in Central America. But the countries that do that are actually really weak countries with incredibly terrible intelligence. The
only example of a country with a reasonably modern military picking a fight with a country of equal or greater military might since the Korean War is Pakistan attacking India. But pretty much everyone considers that to have been
fucking insane.
Basically, your claim is that it is "unrealistic" for the nations of the world to not be individually and collectively as cavalier with their own existence as Pakistan is. That each country is going to selflessly throw itself on the grenade of rogue states. But historically, countries don't
do that. Like, ever.
Let's walk through the North Korea comparison. North Korea is a bunch of dangerous psychopaths who threaten OECD countries with fiery annihilation every day. South Korean military have staged
hundreds of raids across the border, and North Korean military have staged comparable numbers in the other direction. It's the most heavily militarized border in human history, and maintaining those defenses is not cheap. The South has access to NATO forces, including the most powerful military the world has ever seen. The North... well... it doesn't have that. It
may be supplied by Russia and/or China as a backhanded way of fucking over NATO. Then again, it may not.
Nevertheless: the South
doesn't declare final confrontation and wipe the North off the peninsula. The cost would simply be too high. The status quo is intolerable, but substantially less intolerable than having Seoul shelled.
So... how much raiding would it take from a power with WMDs, global reach, the finest blue water navy in history, kilometer thick water walls over every military installation and town, and a secret and unknown distribution of military bases all over the world before countries in the
post NATO world decide that it's more intolerable to try to fight off the raids as they come than to go all in and fight a final confrontation against that foe?
This isn't "Aliens are trying to wipe out all life on Earth, ally or die!", this is "It turns out we badly underestimated Micronesia, and they have the most powerful military force on the planet. Also, they are total assholes and a state sponsor of terrorism."
-Username17