Kaelik wrote:No, that isn't definitionally true, because it could very easily turn out to be the case that because the range of HPs is on a thin enough margin around the median, that there is no amount of average damage that can get you to the same level as a Wizard, and that the only choice is either too fucking much or too fucking little.
This is pretty god damn nitpicky. Yes, if hitpoints are clustered around the median so tightly the variance of the damage is significant, then you're going to get really drastic shifts. But damage almost always comes from a giant flat modifier or a giant pile of small dice that skew heavily towards their average while hitpoints are all over the place, so I have trouble believing that's actually worth considering for this problem.
Kaelik wrote:That is basically impossible, since by definition any specific level encapsulates a three level range including one up and down, so 2/3rds of monsters are the same from one level to the next, and the only ones different are three levels apart.
Again, really fucking nitpicky. If we use a three level range instead of one, then instead of comparing (X) and (X+1) we're comparing (X-1,X+1) and (X,X+2) which is really just comparing (X-1) and (X+2). Could CR X-1 have a higher hitpoint average than X+2 simply by virtue of being unusually heavy on high hitpoint bullshit? Yeah, probably.
Here's a CR 10 colossal animated object's hitpoints: 256.
Here's a CR 13 lich's hitpoints: 74.
Average hitpoints for a given CR are going to depend a lot more on what happens to be in the MM at that CR than the CR itself.
Kaelik wrote:To have fights with the BBEG always be the least tense fights in the game because you know they die in one turn without anyone trying is fucking garbage.
Yes, I said it would be unsatisfying. But as an aside, I have to ask; do you think 3.5 currently has satisfying boss fights? I guess you could say "poke the RNG until the dangerous man loses" can be
tense, but I would not say it makes a satisfying showdown. I've never had a good BBEG fight that wasn't actually closer to a "big bag evil committee whose chairman is a slightly higher CR" fight. There's always a decent chance the BBEG is going to get taken out of the fight on round 1 (unless he has all the immunities!!1!, which is pretty fucking unsatisfying for its own reasons), so I find having fights that can survive that happening and still be noteworthy is about the only way to get consistently decent results.