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2008 last minute poll results
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:51 am
by Josh_Kablack
These could end up being very relevant:
Here's one for my state
PGH PG article in linky wrote:
One day before the election, Democrat Barack Obama holds a 10-point lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race among likely voters in Pennsylvania, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.
Clay Richards' reports
• Hear Clay Richards discuss the latest Quinnipiac University poll of voters across Pennsylvania. His previous audio reports also are available.
Read the latest Quinnipiac University poll news release: Obama holds lead in Pa. and Ohio, but Florida too close to call.
"The race has narrowed somewhat," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Obama led by 15 points two weeks ago," but the difference "is not enough to change to outcome."
Mr. Obama leads, 52-42 percent, in Pennsylvania. He also holds a lead in Ohio, 50-43 percent, and in Florida, 47-45 percent, but the race in the Sunshine State is too close to call. Quinnipiac University polls are conducted simultaneously in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, three so-called swing states. No candidate since 1960 has been elected president without carrying two of the three states.
In Pennsylvania, Mr. Obama holds a 49-42 lead among Catholic voters, but the vote with Mr. McCain is split among white voters, 47-47.
Mr. Obama holds a 53-44 percent edge in Allegheny County. He also commands a 50-42 edge in the critical, populous suburbs of Philadelphia.
First published on November 3, 2008 at 8:13 am
I'm fairly certain that Obama's lock on Pgh proper, Philly, most of the Philly suburbs and over half of the tax-cheatin' rednecks just outside my city limits will be enough to offset the NRA zombies in the rest of the state and deliver PA for Obama. However, my feeling on the ground is that 10 points is irrational exuberance given the number of illiterate alzheimer's cases who keep saying they woulda voted for Hillary.
Post those from your state, and your thoughts on them, and we'll look at how they stack up to actual returns.
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:17 am
by Maxus
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... a-557.html
Doesn't look like Obama will win my state, if the polls are anything to go by.
Still voting for him, though.
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:25 am
by ckafrica
The crazy thing is if you go to the national polls at your website and scroll down to the long term history, it shows that Obama has been winning since forever
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 6:33 am
by Josh_Kablack
Here's the RCP set for PA
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/02 -- -- 51.3 43.7 Obama +7.6
Rasmussen 11/01 - 11/01 700 LV 4.0 52 46 Obama +6
Reuters/Zogby 10/30 - 11/02 602 LV 4.1 54 40 Obama +14
Morning Call 10/29 - 11/02 617 LV 4.0 52 46 Obama +6
SurveyUSA 10/29 - 10/31 700 LV 3.8 51 44 Obama +7
ARG 10/29 - 10/31 600 LV 4.0 51 45 Obama +6
Quinnipiac 10/27 - 11/02 1493 LV 2.5 52 42 Obama +10
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
I'm thinking most of the MoE will swing to McCain on those.
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:33 am
by JonSetanta
Obama wins. McCain is a robot. Many rejoice. I get free coffee.
Also, I'm voting pro-slots for Maryland state. Did the research and according to previous occurrences in other states it's no where near as "bad" as naysayers blather about.
It seems the resistance is more of a dogmatic issue than rational decision, since the money from legal gambling will go to public education as "dirty money"... OOOOOOH! Jesus will have my nuts for this.
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:45 am
by Crissa
Problem with slots is more like they're like some sort of mold. If you can have slots, you will have slots. Not that they ever pay for themselves, I can't imagine it, but they pay somehow for the electricity they use... By basically being a pellet machine for rats.
I don't get it. And I'd vote against it just so there wouldn't be poker machines in my 7-11.
-Crissa
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:10 pm
by Josh_Kablack
PS: don't forget to get your
Free Coffee from Starbucks Hopefully enough people will take advantage of that to drive them out of business faster.
Posted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:15 pm
by Fwib
I've been reading
http://fivethirtyeight.com which has lots of numbers right there for the number-obsessive among us.
As of right now, there is a poll update post due very soon.
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:58 am
by Maxus
Found a cool election map. It updated while I was checking it out.
http://media.theaustralian.com.au/multi ... tion08.htm
Edit: I take it back. A friend showed me this one...
http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:34 am
by Josh_Kablack
Looking like PA went to Obama by 11%.
I haven't been this happy to be wrong since I said the Stillerz weren't going to the Superbowl.
On that subject, have any other
honorary Steelers ever been elected?
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:42 am
by Absentminded_Wizard
The last Ohio poll from the University of Cincinnati had Obama up by 7 here. I'm not sure what the final numbers are, since it'll be a while before they finish tallying all the backup paper ballots. Apparently, the margin's pretty good, since the major news outlets were calling Ohio for Obama 1-1/2 hours after the polls closed.
Thus ends the greatest mystery of this campaign season. Polling in Ohio had been really scattershot (we're talking Obama up by 6 one day, McCain up by 6 the next). I was totally in suspense about which way this state would go right up until they called it.
Bottom line: Joe the Plumber has no pull in his home state. It'll be interesting (and possibly funny) to see what becomes of his proposed 2010 congressional run.