Hungary Death Pool: New Elbonia Edition

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:46 pm

So, Hungary is doomed.

Who wants to bet when the new government/country will collapse?

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:02 pm

True fact: the Fidesz government actually swept into power with the promise of... wait for it... Legalize Bathtub Hooch. How this electoral mandate got reinterpreted to mean that they should scrap the constitution and write a new one in which they could censor the media, judges, and even future parliaments for years after the next election through the appointment of new semi-permanent committees that have veto power over the media and government branches is a story for the ages.

Right now, Hungary is lining itself up to be the next country NATO invades. They are reaching Serbian levels of insanity in there.

Deadpool: 2017.

-Username17

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:13 pm

Hungary just became a bad, bad place to be.

Seriously, the only way that government is going away is with violent uprising.

I'm betting 2022, since Frank beat me to '17

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 10:56 pm

Forgot to add my entry: 2018.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:20 pm

By the way: Hungary getting invaded may not be first on the menu. The Fideszian constitution announces that the state of Hungary (no longer the Republic of Hungary) speaks for all ethnic Hungarians. Now the thing that's probably first on your mind is that is probably a bad thing if you happen to be one of the 7.7% of the population of the country who is not an Ethnic Hungarian. But, did you know that there are two and half million Ethnic Hungarians living in areas along the border in other countries? Imagine the joy in Romania, Slovakia, Serbia, and Ukraine upon learning that the state of Hungary now claims to speak for their citizens who happen to live close to the border!

-Username17

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:38 pm

Any chance of Russia and/or the Ukraine and/or Belarus being all 'oh hell naw' at Hungary being all Ethnic Hungarian and right-wing and authoritarian up in the hizzouse ain't going to fly? Like, they shoot NATO a sideways look and decide to call a temporary truce because something needs to be done?

CatharzGodfoot · Post by **CatharzGodfoot** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 11:48 pm

Russia doesn't give a flyinc fuck how right-winc and authoritarian you are as lonc as you don't fuck with their interests.

tzor · Post by **tzor** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:50 am

I'm going for a classical date ... 2018 A.D.

Doom · Post by **Doom** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 1:49 am

I'm late to the party, but I'm going with 2013, many economic meltdowns will accerate other timelines like Hungary.

Ikeren · Post by **Ikeren** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 4:46 am

I also read several articles only to come here to say that anyone who guessed higher than 2013 seems optimistic to me.

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 4:57 am

If it were this year, they could go "Look! The ancient doomsday clock was right! 2012 is the end!"

That said, I'm going to put my wager in at it taking a while for them to get bad enough that the rest of the world really notices and elects to do something about it, and for NATO to then actually mobilise forces. Obviously, their neighbours could decide to stomp a mudhole in them sooner (I don't see Hungary being in a position to invade neighbouring countries just so they can gather all their ethnic Hungarians to oppress), but I'm going to assume it comes down to NATO or something similar, and put it at 2015.

Also Frank, didn't you predict Czech Republika would collapse and rename itself/get absorbed into something else/divide into smaller things last year? Or was it this year that that is going to happen for you to win that bet?

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:22 am

Lago PARANOIA wrote:Any chance of Russia and/or the Ukraine and/or Belarus being all 'oh hell naw' at Hungary being all Ethnic Hungarian and right-wing and authoritarian up in the hizzouse ain't going to fly? Like, they shoot NATO a sideways look and decide to call a temporary truce because something needs to be done?

Right now, Belarus is in no position to project force because they are collapsing too. They ended up going as far as banning clapping, and devaluing their ruble. Belarus is staggering around waiting to collapse, and is binding itself tighter and tighter with Russia just to keep from falling over completely. They'd be lucky to end up as a state in the Russian Federation, and I think most Belorussians know that.

Russia is still having poor relations with Ukraine and Romania, you remember how Ukraine went bandit and seriously siphoned gas from the pipelines through their country during a dispute in which Ukraine threw a temper tantrum after Russia reduced the subsidy of Ukrainian natural gas. While the new Ukrainian government is more friendly with Russia than that, the Ukrainian president is still out there condemning independence for South Osetia. Romania still wants to conquer Moldova, and Russia still wants Moldova cut in half with the more Russian bits handed over to them. Moldova is a fucking basket case, and no one gives a fuck what they want. In any case, Russia is not going to go to bat for either of those countries.

The question of Ukraine or Romania kicking Hungary's ass all by themselves is more interesting. Both countries have huge chips on their shoulder and have been anxious to prove themselves regional powers for some time. Kicking the shit out of Hungary could be exactly what they need to get taken more seriously. Probably easier for Romania than Ukraine, because Romania is a part of NATO already and Ukraine is still a pariah state that is rightfully distrusted by both the EU and Russia.

Koumei wrote:Also Frank, didn't you predict Czech Republika would collapse and rename itself/get absorbed into something else/divide into smaller things last year? Or was it this year that that is going to happen for you to win that bet?

The world record for the Czechs keeping a country together would be them holding it into 2017. I said that the current group of clowns probably couldn't keep the country from collapsing longer than the first republic - which would imply a collapse by 2014. They are well along in that regard, the President/Prime Minister (like Putin, he switched from one to the other) who divided the country in the first place is being forced out by term limits in 2013 and he said last week that he doesn't intend to leave politics after that.

-Username17

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:53 am

Oh right. So they have two years to fall over and look ready to do so with confidence. And then when they finish doing that, they can get absorbed into this new United Republic of Russia and Friends, presumably.

Also banned in Belarus: browsing foreign websites. Seriously. It's a misdemeanour offence. And that'd be like, all websites. I didn't even think the country had the Internet, just smoke signals (spam is the flood of smoke when the crazy president burns your house down).

Kot · Post by **Kot** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:29 pm

Okay, I've got acquaintances there. Time to ask them about this...

sabs · Post by **sabs** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:54 pm

Ethnic Hungarians? REALLY? WTF Hungaria is a giant cesspool of muttishness. What does Ethnic Hungarian even mean. That's like the wackjobs who go on about Ethnic French.

On the flipside, it depends if the government starts purging or not. Claiming to speak for all Ethnic X, including all those people in your neighboring countries is how the Nazi's started WWII. That being said, Hungaria is no Germany.

If the government fucks with foreigners causing Tourism to flatline, I give them till 2020. If they don't fuck with tourism, I suspect they can keep on going until 2040.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 3:45 pm

Sabs wrote:On the flipside, it depends if the government starts purging or not.

Funny you should mention that.

The Transitional Acts, Hungarian Constitutional Addendum wrote:The Hungarian Socialist Worker’s Party and its legal predecessor (the state party) are responsible:
a. For the elimination, with the help of the Soviet Army, of the democratic, multi‐party effort of the post WWII years
b. For a legal system based on illegality and the exclusive use of power
c. For the elimination of an economy based on the freedom of property, indebting and for permanently destroying the competitiveness of the economy
d. For subjecting to foreign rule Hungary’s economy, military, foreign policy and human resources
e. For the systematic destruction of the traditions of European values and the undermining of the national self‐identity
f. For depriving or seriously limiting the fundamental rights of individual citizens or groups, specifically
1.   For the murdering, subjecting to foreign rule, unlawfully imprisoning, forcing into labor
camps, torturing, and inhumanly treating people
2   For confiscating property from citizens and limiting their rights attached to property
3.  For entirely confiscating people’s right to freedom, and subjecting political opinion and expression of will to state coercion
4.    For the negatively discriminating against people based on origin, view of the world or political conviction, and for obstructing their progress and self‐fulfillment based on knowledge, diligence, and talent
6.     For the self‐serving intrusion based on political and ideological grounds into education, cultural education, scientific life and culture
7.    For creating and operating a secret police to illegally observe and influence people’s personal lives
g. For strangling in blood the October 1956 revolution in collaboration with soviet troops, for the subsequent rule based on fear and retribution and forced migration of 200,000 Hungarians.
h. For reducing Hungary’s place in the ranking of European and global nations
i. For those public crimes which were carried out for political reasons and which the justice system failed to prosecute for political reasons.
3. MSzMP  [the Hungarian Socialist Worker’s Party], its predecessors and the political organizations created in the communist ideology for their service were all criminal organizations, and their leaders are responsible without statute of limitations for maintaining a repressive system, violating fundamental rights, and betraying the nation.
4. The Hungarian Socialist Party shares the responsibility of the State Party – through the continuity in party leadership that bridged the old and the new party ‐ as the legal successor to the Hungarian Socialist Worker’s Party,  as the inheritor of the illegally amassed wealth, or as the benefactor of the illegitimate advantages acquired during the transition.
5. Under the communist dictatorship, it was impossible to prosecute crimes involving the construction and maintenance of the system, nor was it possible to do so ‐ in the absence of constitutional turn that broke legal continuity – after the first free elections. The leaders of the dictatorship were never held responsible in a legal or moral manner. The Basic Law will allow for delivering justice.

They haven't actually started purges. But they did just pass a constitutional addendum that allows them to try any member of the main opposition party for any crime performed at any time during the Communist regime at any time of their choosing with no statute of limitations.

Special points go out to the apparent constitutional mandate to transfer any amount of wealth from members of the political opposition (because they were unfairly given wealth by the communist system) to any member of the ruling party (because they were unfairly denied wealth by the communist system). That is an awe inspiring lack of respect for private property for a supposedly radical capitalist political faction.

-Username17

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 4:13 pm

Yeah, honestly, if I were a member of the socialist party there, I'd be packing up and and moving somewhere with a more hospitable climate. Like antarctica.

sabs · Post by **sabs** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 4:18 pm

Yeah, that seems pretty much horrid. With those goals, if they actually start rounding people up Jewish Ghetto style. I'm thinking 2020. But it's amazing how long people will live under horrible conditions. Europe has bigger fish to fry, so they'll only step in if there's Syrian levels of bloodshed on the streets.

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 4:24 pm

Just read these.

The Transitional Acts, Hungarian Constitutional Addendum wrote:The Hungarian Socialist Worker’s Party and its legal predecessor (the state party) are responsible:
a. For the elimination, with the help of the Soviet Army, of the democratic, multi‐party effort of the post WWII years
b. For a legal system based on illegality and the exclusive use of power
c. For the elimination of an economy based on the freedom of property, indebting and for permanently destroying the competitiveness of the economy
d. For subjecting to foreign rule Hungary’s economy, military, foreign policy and human resources
e. For the systematic destruction of the traditions of European values and the undermining of the national self‐identity
f. For depriving or seriously limiting the fundamental rights of individual citizens or groups, specifically
1.   For the murdering, subjecting to foreign rule, unlawfully imprisoning, forcing into labor
camps, torturing, and inhumanly treating people
2   For confiscating property from citizens and limiting their rights attached to property
3.  For entirely confiscating people’s right to freedom, and subjecting political opinion and expression of will to state coercion
4.    For the negatively discriminating against people based on origin, view of the world or political conviction, and for obstructing their progress and self‐fulfillment based on knowledge, diligence, and talent
6.     For the self‐serving intrusion based on political and ideological grounds into education, cultural education, scientific life and culture
7.    For creating and operating a secret police to illegally observe and influence people’s personal lives
g. For strangling in blood the October 1956 revolution in collaboration with soviet troops, for the subsequent rule based on fear and retribution and forced migration of 200,000 Hungarians.
h. For reducing Hungary’s place in the ranking of European and global nations
i. For those public crimes which were carried out for political reasons and which the justice system failed to prosecute for political reasons.
3. MSzMP  [the Hungarian Socialist Worker’s Party], its predecessors and the political organizations created in the communist ideology for their service were all criminal organizations, and their leaders are responsible without statute of limitations for maintaining a repressive system, violating fundamental rights, and betraying the nation.
4. The Hungarian Socialist Party shares the responsibility of the State Party – through the continuity in party leadership that bridged the old and the new party ‐ as the legal successor to the Hungarian Socialist Worker’s Party,  as the inheritor of the illegally amassed wealth, or as the benefactor of the illegitimate advantages acquired during the transition.
5. Under the communist dictatorship, it was impossible to prosecute crimes involving the construction and maintenance of the system, nor was it possible to do so ‐ in the absence of constitutional turn that broke legal continuity – after the first free elections. The leaders of the dictatorship were never held responsible in a legal or moral manner. The Basic Law will allow for delivering justice.

Pot, meet kettle.

Edit: Honestly, if you're so concerned with correcting the playing field to let the Free Market (TM) sort it out, you really ought to take everyone's money, put it in a big pot, divvy it up equally per-person, and then let everyone line up while you ready the starting pistol and do a big countdown as you reboot the economy.

It wouldn't work and it'd cause fiscal insanity, but it'd still be more fair and intelligent than this.

Starmaker · Post by **Starmaker** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:02 pm

Koumei wrote:Also banned in Belarus: browsing foreign websites. Seriously. It's a misdemeanour offence. And that'd be like, all websites. I didn't even think the country had the Internet, just smoke signals (spam is the flood of smoke when the crazy president burns your house down).

It isn't, but I don't give enough of a fuck to put citation needed where it belongs on that Wikipedia page.

The law says firms and entrepreneurs can get crap by using foreign websites in their business - meaning if you do business in Belarus, you have to do it through a .by site, registered with the government as per one of the prior laws. Which means Regula.ws should be in deep yogurt, but I know for a fact they aren't. Huh.

Private citizens are subject to the usual threefold censorship crap:
1. Provider-level firewalling: this one is for providers, and the banned list is not public. If you're a provider, you have to fuck with DNS or face a fine up to $17000.
2. Don't break the line: basically, if you're out on blogspot or wherever reading/posting about how Lukashenko sucks a barrel of cocks, don't like it on facebook. Easy target is easy.
3. "Gotcha!" - there's a list of sites that are actually banned and a private visit apparently constitutes an infraction of some sort. The list is currently empty, it's been empty since forever, and there are no plans to fill it - apparently, the government had a bout of sanity and decided not to provide free advertizing to the opposition.

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 5:51 am

So less assholish than the Australian Internet laws. Fantastic.

Fuchs · Post by **Fuchs** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:15 am

There's an uproar in Romania after their ice hockey team beat Hungary's in December, but both teams sang the hungarian hymn before and after the game, remainign silent when the Romanian hmyn was played.

Kot · Post by **Kot** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 5:54 pm

Okay, I've managed to get a hang on her and ask a few questions, and it's not pretty. They're bitter, and scared, especially because things were bad enough before. It might be really as bad as we think...
I wanted to write something more, but then someone patted me on the arm, and when i turn around... 'Whoa, you scared me there Mr. Godwin...'

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 7:46 pm

Kot wrote:Okay, I've managed to get a hang on her and ask a few questions, and it's not pretty. They're bitter, and scared, especially because things were bad enough before. It might be really as bad as we think...
I wanted to write something more, but then someone patted me on the arm, and when i turn around... 'Whoa, you scared me there Mr. Godwin...'

Eesh...