Want something less vague? These are my predictions and I'm MOSTLY sticking to them. The only one I'm changing is the one in bold.hogarth wrote:5E D&D won't last forever; that's a given. So whenever it reaches the end of its product cycle, one can just point to that and say "See? I was right, give or take a year."
It's like the joke about economists predicting 9 of the last 5 recessions.
Now, I won't, or rather can't, say exactly when 5E D&D dies out for good. I give August 2013, give or take a month, as the latest release 5E D&D will come out. I said that 5E D&D goes down in flames Summer 2013, which is a bit too pessimistic (and too bullish on 5E D&D coming out this year), so I'm changing my claim to 'less than two years after it comes out'. Like 4E D&D though, it'll hit the point of no return about a year less than that. But it's totally possible for it to come out a few months earlier than that, depending on how much Hasbro micromanages and/or gets intolerant of the D&D brand falling behind Pathfinder for several quarters.me wrote: So. I predicted three years ago that 4E D&D would go down in flames Spring 2012 and I was totally right.
Feeling drunk off of my success, I am making a whole new set of predictions:
[*] Mike Mearls avoids the initial round of yearly layoffs due to his smooth-talkingness. Nonetheless the product goes down in flames by the summer of 2014. Mike Mearls and his number two Bruce Cordell becomes a pariah in the industry having helmed two successful failures. Pathfailure probably hires him sometime in the future because once you've hired SF fucking R you've proofed/prooved/proved yourself a complicated welfare organization for washed-up douchebags and hacks. Expect to see them to hire Matt Ward, Strazyncski, and Brannon Braga soon.
[*] Rather than starting on Sixth Edition, Hasbro shelves the IP entirely for awhile. This allows Pathfailure to become the semi-official face of D&D for the intervening period.
[*] 5E D&D doesn't even try to get its virtual support off of the ground. Not that they won't make a token effort, but it'll be clearly vaporware by the end of the year except for maybe a barely functional version of the 5E character builder that will look stupid and chintzy because of 5E's greater emphasis on magical tea party.
[*] MtG continues posting years of success. Probably also gets a new X360 or PS3/Vita videro jame. There is some serious talk, and not just here, of the D&D and MtG divisions permanently merging with D&D becoming the permanent bitch of MtG.
[*] 5E D&D continues to take heavy artistic influences from World of Warcraft, because Diablo 3 isn't going to be out as long and most of the same clowns that worked on 4E D&D are still around.
[*] Their new fair-use product will be slightly less restrictive than GSL but still moreso than the SRD. No real third party settings come out.
[*] Forgotten Realms, Ninter Vale, Greyhawk, and Dragonlance die a quiet death and never ever get resurrected. So there's a bright side, at least, along with Mike Mearls being permanently known among the non-fanboys as a self-aggrandizing fuckup.
[*] 5E D&D permanently fractures the fanbase. 2E grognards get the blame for the 5E D&D fiasco since appealing to these douchnozzles seems to be what's fucking the game up.
[*] Mike Mearls tries to throw a hail Mary to save his job, taking 5E in a weird and desperate direction. Probably by turning D&D into some weird board game / CCG hybrid like DragonStrike or Culdcept.
Regardless, though, seeing how quickly 4E D&D crashed and burned I give the edition a little less than two years after its release date.