Annoying Game Questions You Want Answered

[Ancient History]

3d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 7.23% of the time, or once every 13.8 rolls.
4d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 20.9% of the time, or once every 4.78 rolls.
5d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 43.1% of the time, or once every 2.32 rolls.

Chance of rolling 6 on 1d6 is 1/6 = 0.1667 ~ 16.7%.

So if you roll X dice and one explodes, that's the same as the probability of rolling (TN - 6) with Y dice times the probability of the exploding die (1/6).

So for example, let's say our TN is 20. 20 - 6 gives us an adjusted TN of 14 or higher for three dice after the first die explodes. The probability for rolling 14 or higher with three dice is the sum of the individual probabilites:

14: 6+6+2, 6+2+6, 2+6+6, 5+6+3, 6+5+3, 6+3+5, 5+3+6, 3+6+5, 3+5+6, 5+5+4, 5+4+5, 4+5+5, 6+4+4, 4+6+4, 4+4+6 (15)
15: 6+6+3, 6+3+6, 3+6+6, 5+6+4, 6+5+4, 6+4+5, 5+4+6, 4+6+5, 4+5+6, 5+5+5, 5+5+5, 5+5+5 (12)
16: 6+6+4, 6+4+6, 4+6+6, 5+6+4, 6+5+4, 6+4+5, 5+4+6, 4+6+5, 4+5+6, 5+5+6, 5+6+5, 6+5+5 (12)
17: 6+6+5, 6+5+6, 5+6+6 (3)
18: 6+6+6 (1)

Or (15+12+12+3+1) divided by 6^3 = 43/216 = 0.199..

So, just to recap for anybody I lost there. Your chances of rolling 14 or higher on 3d6 is about 20%. If you assume that one of the die explodes (i.e. it rolls a 6 and you roll it again), then your odds of rolling 20 or higher are (1/6)(43/216) = 0.0331, or about 3%.

Now, that could be a little higher if the other dice explode when they hit 6, but generally speaking you are, as Frank pointed out, probably looking at rolling a 20+ about every 30 rolls using 3d6. I don't even know how Tussock got his numbers.

Assuming I can do math at all.

[fectin]

I filled in cells in excel. It skips the fun theory part, but 10,000 trials is accurate to less than one percent. I got about 12%

Your error is that there are a bunch of ways to get 20 on 4d6 without any explosions (4,4,6,6; 4,5,6,6; etc)

[Ancient History]

Yes, but 3d6 + 1 explosion is not the same as trying to roll 20+ on 4d6. You're presuming that you roll a 6 and then you roll 3d6 more.

...or I guess you could roll 3d6 and on any 6 roll to see see if you get enough to roll a 20+. I didn't think of that.

[fectin]

I don't know where 3d6 comes from. fbmf asked about 4d6, one of which explodes (I assume from the WEG Star Wars). I modeled that as a short row of cells:
A: floor(rand()*6+1)+floor(rand()*6+1)+floor(rand()*6+1)
(I.e. the three inert dice)
B: floor(rand()*6+1)
(I.e. the explosive die)
C: if(b=6,floor(rand()*6+1),0)
(if column b is a 6, this is the first explosion, else zero)
D: if(c=6,floor(rand()*6+1),0)
(if column c is a 6, this is the second explosion, else zero)
E: if(d=6,floor(rand()*6+1),0)
(if column d is a 6, this is the third explosion, else zero)
F: Sum(a:e)
(I.e. the outcome of that 4d6 roll. I assumed originally that 3 explosions in a row was not going to be statistically significant. I validated that; it's not.)

I stretched that down for 10,000 rows, counted how many occurrences of each result, divided those counts by 10K, and reported that as the likelihood of seeing that result. It's not perfect, but is accurate to about 0.5%. I got CDF from summing PDF.

[Username17]

I don't know where 3d6 comes from.

Suppose I am rolling 4d6, one of which explodes on a 6. How many rolls, on average, before I hit TN 20? What about 3d6, one exploder, TN 20? What about 5d6, one exploder, TN 20?

Bolded for you.

3d6 is obviously the simplest case, so we're mostly discussing that one.

-Username17

[fectin]

Derp. I'll get that in a bit.

[fectin]

Okay. here's 3,4,5 d6, a specific one of which can explode:

This is probably accurate to slightly less than 0.1%

[Koumei]

Is anyone here good at Exalted character creation? It's hard to figure out what the numbers should look like, where the latest rules happen to be, where the various fucking charms and equipment people recommend might be, and so on. It's 2.5Ed with Scroll of Erata and "the Inkmonkey stuff", if that helps.

[Prak]

This may help.

[Koumei]

Oh I know that exists, I have it, but I specifically mean "helping with creating a good build for a character". Basically the MC for the Direction I'm in drowned in a canoe*, so I'm making a secondary to play in a separate Direction in that game. It's a big forum game.

My current is an Alchemical, with some decent areas of expertise, but I'm looking at Sidereal (Serenity) for the secondary. The house rules for Sidereals are:
1. Simpler Astrology rules (as seen in the spaceship splat book)
2. Four free Excellencies, one must be for Martial Arts
I'll have 130 starting XP for the character. I'm looking at going for a basic Perfect Defence (which can be gained from either Performance or Dodge), and I like the idea of taking the Performance charm that allows for turning Spirits into Allies and the Socialise things that make people want to please me, then going Martial Arts.

For the specific martial arts, I was thinking of going Black Claw (Inkmonkey creation, basically lets you manipulate people socially in combat and burn their Willpower away). Downside is that it's properly unarmed (not even "unarmed, plus Martial Arts weapons"), so I'd want to grab some kind of "make your unarmed attacks fucking deadly" Charms. Even at that much XP, I probably couldn't actually qualify for a proper Sidereal martial art, but somewhere down the line I'd totally supplement Black Claw with the "Sailor Venus Martial Art" from the Maidens book.

It's not a Sexytimes game**, so I don't want to mix it up with Pearl Courtesan + Laughing Wounds to be a bondage queen or anything, I'm focusing on "making lots of friends to get what I want".

*or whatever, they disappeared.
**well it's Exalted, so obviously it's pretty faces, short skirts and seductresses at every turn, but there won't be the playing out of any actual fucking and I won't be mind-controlling people into sex-slaves.

[Prak]

I wish I could help, and I really should be able to, since there's a cute, kink-compatible chick from school who wants to try Exalted, but I haven't read up on it yet.

[fectin]

I'd say just play around with Anathema.
Off the top of my head, here's a few things to consider:
The Maidens are basically trolling their chosen, as far as I could ever tell, so your charms aren't great. Notable exceptions include Blade of the Battle Maiden (possibly errata'd) and Avoidance Kata. There are others which are situationally very powerful, like the one which lets you move cities into the Wyld. Within that, it really depends what you want to do. Also, remember that you probably want any game breaking equipment up front. Starmetal celestial battle armor covers a lot of sins, and is quite anti-sidereal. Sorcery is fairly breakable, especially the second circle one which makes followers awsome (imbue amalgam, I think) and the demon-summoning ones. Not shaping the Wyld means you don't get nearly as crazy, but demons and amalgams are enough to comfort yourself with.
I remember astronomy being great for spy vs. spy games, and terrie for Exalted; smarter people may disagree.
There are a few right answers for favored skills: martial arts, craft, and occult are all good (MA and occult have many, many charms, tagging craft tags about 10 skills ate once (5 elements, fate, genesis, magitech, etc)).
Manses are abusable.
The Savant background is pretty great, and no-one else gets it. Unfortunately, you're a sad panda at crafting, etc.
Buy essence up at chargen. Take disadvantages to do so. It is massively cheaper, and less hassle.

[Koumei]

The Maidens are basically trolling their chosen, as far as I could ever tell, so your charms aren't great.

Yes and no. The normal "attack somebody" Charms are pretty shitty compared to Celestial ones. The "make your attack better" ones are also shitty compared to everyone else who isn't Dragon-Blooded.

That said, they gain easy access to powerful Social Charms and to Perfect Defences, although they don't have flurry-breaking ones. They only have like one Soak-booster that isn't from a martial art (IIRC it stacks with the martial art ones, but you can't wear armour... like the martial art ones). Also they can give their Crippling/Shaping/Sickness effects to other people. As in "I was suffering from syphilis, but now you can suffer from it instead!"

Now, they have the shittiest Ox-Body: 1x -0. -0 levels sound awesome, but basically, it's so easy to negate Wound Penalties or turn them into Wound Bonuses that you'd much rather the -2/-2/-2 of Alchemicals or whatever.

So for actually attacking and defending, you want to use Martial Arts, not your innate Charms. But there are awesome things they can do with their Charms.

Starmetal celestial battle armor covers a lot of sins, and is quite anti-sidereal.

The martial arts I'm looking into are "no armour allowed". That said, there are two armours that are not armours that stack with each other, so I'll be getting both of those (Steelsilk and the magical cloak thing).

Martial Arts as a Favoured Skill is a no-brainer, yeah. Occult... there aren't actually that many for a Sidereal, all you really want are the Sorcery Charms (and spells are learned as separate things to the Charms, with a fixed cost). Crafting in this game uses the rule of "Craft (Element) is one skill. Each dot unlocks an element that uses the full dice pool" (see: D&D Perform skill). And then stuff like Magitech, Vitriol, Fate and whatever are purchased as Specialties (with the Specialty being mandatory for attempting it).

Manses are definitely a good choice, and there's Salary, which is literally "Resources, except 2 points higher".

The Savant background is pretty great, and no-one else gets it.

Actually, as of the errata, everybody gets Savant. And it's just a bonus to Lore for the purpose of "ancient knowledge" such as operating long-buried magitech. I don't really see that cropping up too much.

Buy essence up at chargen. Take disadvantages to do so. It is massively cheaper, and less hassle.

True as that is, the Merit/Flaw system is pretty much the one thing that is banned.

[tussock]

Let's try this again, shall I? This time without the foot in the spreadsheet.

And to answer the original question ...

3d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 3.87% of the time, or once every 25.8 rolls.
4d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 12.4% of the time, or once every 8.10 rolls.
5d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 35.5% of the time, or once every 2.82 rolls.

50%+ after 6 rolls, and 95%+ after 23 rolls for the 4d6 case. Hello 6 rolls, thank you @fectin, well done sir. My errors for those playing along at home where many and varied, including having the some of the odds upside down. Wheee.

Those numbers precisely, 301/7776, 5761/46656, and 99225/279936. Work being the direct sum of probabilities, this time the right way. PRNG's in spreadsheets being good for a couple of percent extra relative error, exact numbers far more awesome.

6d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 65.6% of the time, or twice every three rolls.

[fectin]

That said, they gain easy access to powerful Social Charms and to Perfect Defences, although they don't have flurry-breaking ones. They only have like one Soak-booster that isn't from a martial art (IIRC it stacks with the martial art ones, but you can't wear armour... like the martial art ones). Also they can give their Crippling/Shaping/Sickness effects to other people. As in "I was suffering from syphilis, but now you can suffer from it instead!"

You don't want to boost soak anyway. There are too many nastinesses which are the moral equivalent of touch attacks. You want perfect defenses, and failing that you want regular defenses. Soak is a distant third.
As to their charms generally, giving people syph is a perfect example: it's neat, and weird, and no-one else can do that, but at then end of the day everyone else's feats are "forge a race of people from the Wyld with willpower alone" or even just "have more health", and yours is "mildly irritating rider on a melee attack".

Starmetal celestial battle armor covers a lot of sins, and is quite anti-sidereal.

The martial arts I'm looking into are "no armour allowed". That said, there are two armours that are not armours that stack with each other, so I'll be getting both of those (Steelsilk and the magical cloak thing).

Yeah. That would push you pretty hard into celestial monkey style. Destiny Interdiction Field is pretty win though, and Dematerializing is sheer awesome.

Occult... there aren't actually that many for a Sidereal, all you really want are the Sorcery Charms (and spells are learned as separate things to the Charms, with a fixed cost).

Spells are separate, yes, but they cost experience exactly like occult charms: 10 xp normally, 8 if occult is favored or caste.

[Hey_I_Can_Chan]

The spell mystic aegis is from Player's Handbook 2 120, and presented below.

Mystic Aegis
Abjuration
Level: Cleric 4
Components: V, DF
Casting Time: 1 immediate action
Range: Personal
Target: You
Duration: Instantaneous

A mantle of scintillating, multicolored light appears around you to block the spell, then fades away.

You cast mystic aegis immediately when you are targeted by a hostile spell. You gain spell resistance equal to 12 + your caster level against that spell.

According to the SRD spells with an instantaneous duration channel "spell energy [that] comes and goes the instant the spell is cast, though the consequences might be long-lasting." So, by the rules as written, does a caster who uses mystic aegis keep that SR against that spell forever?

[erik]

I'd rule "that spell" to mean that casting of that spell, but it is technically ambiguous.

[shadzar]

the SRD is NOT D&D, so their rules will vary. the SRD is a generic d20 system, and D&D has it's own rules.

in D&D, when a specific thing goes against the general rules of D&D (ergo level 1 humans can't fly, but dragons have flight) then the specific overrides the general.

this was stated in editions prior to 3rd, and assumed people understood it about the game, so was maybe not published in 3rd or beyond. as with many other things that are taken for granted in newer iterations of D&D as they go forward.

in this case both agree, that "might be long-lasting" and as erik says, the spell indicates this spell is a one time thing.

[ishy]

Are there any guidelines in D&D if a spell should or should not have verbal & or somatic components?
Or an easy way to remember which spells do / don't have those.

Like how spells based on verbal commands such as suggestion obviously do have verbal components.

[shadzar]

spells are written byeveryone based on common sense like a mental suggestion requiring waving a hand to have the other person say "move along, move along".

likewise VSM are easily ignored, and most often are.

odds are if you are moving something, a hand gesture helps, ir you are trying to change something the speaking helps. that is the most basic of it.

moving a will, move your hands. command fire to appear, speak the words....but it doesn't apply universally as that to D&D spells. it has always followed the rule of... "let's do this one this way".

[Grek]

It is indeed easier to memorize the ones that don't have components. But they're all unrelated, so you pretty much have to do it by rote.

[zugschef]

If you use secret page to copy a spell into your spellbook, does the process of actually "writing" the spell (after you've spent a day to understand it) then only take 10 minutes (per page) instead of 24 hours?

[shadzar]

you are changing a page to hide what is on it. not actually writing a new spell.

to show even another spell

it doesnt mean you are putting a new spell on the page, just making it look as though it were something else. only one spell can fit on a page, because the spell inscribed on the page contains more than just the writings.

its like invisible ink, but you change the writing on the page so nobody else can read it. imagine Marauder's Map from Harry Potter, is more like what it is.

"disguised to insult someone who tries to read it"

[Grek]

If you use secret page to copy a spell into your spellbook, does the process of actually "writing" the spell (after you've spent a day to understand it) then only take 10 minutes (per page) instead of 24 hours?

Nope. It's still 24 hours, 10 minutes of which are spent casting Secret Page instead of however long you'd be spending writing it the normal way.

you are changing a page to hide what is on it. not actually writing a new spell.

Secret Page lets you choose one page of text that's written down somewhere and disguise it via illusions as another page of text that you write while casting the spell. Either page of text can be a page out of a spell formula.

[zugschef]

If you use secret page to copy a spell into your spellbook, does the process of actually "writing" the spell (after you've spent a day to understand it) then only take 10 minutes (per page) instead of 24 hours?

Nope. It's still 24 hours, 10 minutes of which are spent casting Secret Page instead of however long you'd be spending writing it the normal way.

Wait a moment... I thought the process of copying a spell takes two days: one day to understand and learn the spell and then one day to write it into the spellbook.