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zugschef
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The most important fact to remember about the brexit is that it was a public opinion poll. Its result was not binding and it still isn't.
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SlyJohnny
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

zugschef wrote:
The most important fact to remember about the brexit is that it was a public opinion poll. Its result was not binding and it still isn't.


The lib dems are the only party that sees it that way, and they're never going to do a coalition again.
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hyzmarca
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:

Brexit doesn't weaken the hand of the austerians, it strengthens it! Theresa May is a hardcore austerian and she now gets to pay for her gifts to rich people however she fucking wants. And that means huge cuts to public services and rollbacks of EU worker protections and restrictions on access to healthcare to poor people. That's what it means to reduce the size of the EU. You get absolutely nothing of what you claim to want and the fascists win. Actual fascists. Actual winning. And we all lose, and you're still a fucking idiot for ever supporting any part of this. Because it was always completely obvious that this is the direction it was going.

-Frank


Don't insult actual Fascists, Frank. Italy Under Mussolini implemented massive welfare, food assistance, and health care programs. Real Fascists are paternalistic, and that means that they feel that they have a responsibility to take care of the people.

The "Fuck You, I Got Mine" attitude is generally Right-Libertarian. Fascism is infinitely preferable to that.


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Starmaker
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

hyzmarca wrote:
Don't insult actual Fascists, Frank. Itally Under Mussolini implemented massive welfare, food assistance, and health care programs. Real Fascists are paternalistic, and that means that they feel have a responsibility to take care of the people.

The "Fuck You, I Got Mine" attitude is generally Right-Libertarian. Fascism is infinitely preferable to that.

What is Russia, then?
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OgreBattle
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Was Chiang Kai Shek's Republic of China fascist?
Was 1900's Japan fascist?

I generally hear fascism applied to 20th century west, but I'm not sure if it applies to early 20th century Asia.
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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

zugschef wrote:
The most important fact to remember about the brexit is that it was a public opinion poll. Its result was not binding and it still isn't.


While the poll was never binding and isn't now, I think May passed something through parliament triggering article 50 a bit ago, so Germany has a coherent position that Article 50 is triggered and the UK will be gone in 2 years (or whatever the time is) now.
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That's libertarians for you - anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.
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zugschef
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Theoretically. But right now May doesn't think they have to pay anything and the EU commission is thinking of figures around 70 billion euros. Also, Airbus is threatening the UK with moving to European mainland if there is any chance that their employees have any kind of trouble with their visa. You can bet that Airbus won't be the last company doing so.

Realistically the Brexit won't be fully done before the Brits had two more elections (since they are already talking about yet another early election).
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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

zugschef wrote:
Theoretically. But right now May doesn't think they have to pay anything and the EU commission is thinking of figures around 70 billion euros. Also, Airbus is threatening the UK with moving to European mainland if there is any chance that their employees have any kind of trouble with their visa. You can bet that Airbus won't be the last company doing so.

Realistically the Brexit won't be fully done before the Brits had two more elections (since they are already talking about yet another early election).


I mean... Yes lots of shit about Brexit, but Germany is basically holding trade/immigration deals hostage for 70 billion, not exit. Germany is going to force a withdrawal as punishment to prevent others.

I'm saying the UK backing out of Brexit is not a thing they can choose to do anymore, where they used to be able to, because the referendum was non binding and had no authority, but the parliament passed a thing, so we are past the point about caring whether it was binding.
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That's libertarians for you - anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.
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hyzmarca
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Starmaker wrote:
hyzmarca wrote:
Don't insult actual Fascists, Frank. Itally Under Mussolini implemented massive welfare, food assistance, and health care programs. Real Fascists are paternalistic, and that means that they feel have a responsibility to take care of the people.

The "Fuck You, I Got Mine" attitude is generally Right-Libertarian. Fascism is infinitely preferable to that.

What is Russia, then?


Russia is just Russia. No matter what system they have, it's terrible.

Monarchy, terrible. Communism, better than the Monarchy, except for the mass murders. Democracy, worse than Communism, but fewer mass murders.
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zugschef
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

You can reverse anything with enough votes, especially if it's not constitutional. This particular votum didn't even need more than 51% of all members of the parliament if i recall correctly. I'm not so sure that they won't reconsider. They might have to if they want to save their economy.

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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

No the point is that at this point the UK can't reverse anything with enough votes because they've already sent the Article 50 Letter to the European Parliament. At this point the only thing the UK can do is to present possible deals to the rest of Europe and beg them to ratify them in less than 2 years despite the fact that the treaties they are meant to replace took decades to negotiate.

The UK is completely fucked. Right now the people of the UK are living in a bizarre fantasy world where they have lots of negotiating power and a bunch fo serious adults in charge who are going to fix everything, but they don't. They don't have any of that.

Article 50 was never meant to be invoked. But it has been invoked and now all it does is give a hard deadline for when a bunch of treaties expire. That's fucking it. The UK has given itself a hard deadline by which they have to speed date every other country in Europe.

-Frank
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Omegonthesane
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The writer of Article 50 is convinced that you absolutely can revoke your invocation of Article 50, deciding after seeing which way the wind is blowing that actually you'd rather stick around. I don't think there's been an official ruling from the EU lawyers to the contrary, though this would presumably invalidate any negotiations you'd done up to that point rather than being a means to extend the deadline.

To my knowledge it is not in the EU's interest to obstruct a country that, having triggered Article 50, wants to forsake that invocation and cancel their exit altogether. After all, if a country has prominently declared they want to leave, having them go back on that decision sends the message that leaving the EU is a Bad Idea without having to weaken ties with an EU trading partner. Nor am I aware of any legal obligation upon them to do that.

The Tories have promised to just let the treaties expire. They have repeated a definitionally false mantra that "no deal is better than a bad deal" knowing that the EU will never offer them a deal that is even worse than a trainwreck departure. They know they have no negotiating chips*, so their plan is to not negotiate.

* except destroying the Republic of Ireland's economy, which for some reason they're not keen to mention...
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And if there are any weeds that grow better in barren soil than laziness and ignorance, I don't know what they are (and don't care enough to find out).
Kaelik wrote:
Because powerful men get away with terrible shit, and even the public domain ones get ignored, and then, when the floodgates open, it turns out there was a goddam flood behind it.
FrankTrollman wrote:
As far as death and human misery goes, Tobacco is basically World War II grinding on forever with no real sign of stopping in our life times. Death camps and nuclear bombs and stuff are certainly dramatic, but public health crises are always and forever bigger than wars on the global scale.


Zak S, Zak Smith, Dndwithpornstars, Zak Sabbath. He is a terrible person and a hack at writing and art. His cultural contributions are less than Justin Bieber's, and he's a shitmuffin. Go go gadget Googlebomb!
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zugschef
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Article 50 is so obscure that it is definitely not set in stone that it can't be revoked. And the EU would absolutely let them do that. It could actually be the only chance to keep the union stable. The Brits gave all the far right-wing parties all over Europe -- who almost all want to leave the EU -- an example for their campaigns.

They are losing most elections in the western countries eventually (see Austria, France) but Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic are really on the verge to becoming sham democracies. As soon as they don't receive a net sum from the EU anymore, they will try to leave.

All that has been a theory so far. With the Brexit, it's become a possible reality.


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Parthenon
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It just keeps getting worse and worse. Why can't Farage and UKIP just go into obscurity and be ignored.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/12/nigel-farage-to-gain-brexit-role-under-dup-conservative-deal--reports.html
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Omegonthesane
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I can't find any British sources reporting that, and while the DUP tick some ways of being evil that the Tories misesd, they really don't want a hard border with the RoI so are unlikely to want Nigel Fucking Farage anywhere near Brexit negotiations.
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FrankTrollman wrote:
And if there are any weeds that grow better in barren soil than laziness and ignorance, I don't know what they are (and don't care enough to find out).
Kaelik wrote:
Because powerful men get away with terrible shit, and even the public domain ones get ignored, and then, when the floodgates open, it turns out there was a goddam flood behind it.
FrankTrollman wrote:
As far as death and human misery goes, Tobacco is basically World War II grinding on forever with no real sign of stopping in our life times. Death camps and nuclear bombs and stuff are certainly dramatic, but public health crises are always and forever bigger than wars on the global scale.


Zak S, Zak Smith, Dndwithpornstars, Zak Sabbath. He is a terrible person and a hack at writing and art. His cultural contributions are less than Justin Bieber's, and he's a shitmuffin. Go go gadget Googlebomb!
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zugschef
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The tories are dumber than I thought: they are trying to pressure the EU by trying to set up a trade/economic relationship with the US. Alternatively they want to join NAFTA. They honestly think that the US will give them what the EU wouldn't (and they've already had a whole bunch of special liberties compared to all other members). And everybody knows that they are desperate. A not so great position to be in for these types of negotiations to say the least.

On top of that they are still members of the EU. These negotiations are basically illegal. These idiots won't like Germany/France's response.

https://twitter.com/tradegovuk/status/876385815630422017


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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Quote:
The tories are dumber than I thought


Why, it's almost like supporting plans drawn up by neo-fascists and supported by anti-western dictatorships is a terrible idea. Who could have possibly known?!

DSM wrote:
There are things we can do to stem the tide of conservatism and fascism - and one of those things is elect leftists and run up the scoreboard with victories. That could have happened in Portugal, but it didn't, because the EU didn't want it to. That could have happened in Greece, but it didn't, because the EU didn't want it to. I suspect if I spent the time researching Ireland, Italy, and Spain, I would see either very similar stories or deeply corrupt and conservative countries whose problems run far too fucking deep (cough Italy cough) to be explained in the context of a single crisis.


I missed responding to this insane rant because I was in the middle of a 12 day work week. But holy shit, no.

Your super genius plan of dividing shit up until there are times and areas that leftists can win in is called "Letting the South Win The Civil War." It is not actually a super genius plan and doesn't make the world a better place.

If you divide shit up into small pieces you don't get to spread the word of social democracy, you get to have large parts of the planet descend into savagery, slavery, and genocide.We've had nice little Scandinavian social democracies sitting around making massive gains in human social wellbeing for their few million people and they haven't managed to export their way of life very much. Neo-fascist countries like Hungary have managed to export white nationalist terrorists to Norway, but Norway hasn't managed to impose its ideas on land mine bans on anyone.

If you divide things up into smaller pieces you'll be able to win some fights that you otherwise wouldn't be able to. But much more often you'll lose fights that you otherwise wouldn't.

See the big problem with fights over small areas is that they are easy for small groups of rich people to gain undue influence over. That's why we do so much worse in Montana than we do in New York. It's not that there isn't more money in New York, it's that individual groups of rich crackpots just have an easier time dominating politics in a small pool of 1 million people than it is to push things around in a populous area of nearly 20 million people.

The Greek problem is much more complicated than the fact that they were borrowing in Euros and foreign banks were able to twist their arms. Or rather, it's exactly that simple and the country not being in the Eurozone wouldn't have stopped that problem from happening. If Greece wasn't in the Eurozone, they still wouldn't be doing their foreign borrowing denominated in Dinars, because no one fucking does international lending in Dinars.

The only reason we were able to talk about Greece leaving the Eurozone as a possible solution to the debt crisis was that their debts were denominated in Euros and their national currency was denominated in Euros and if they left the zone they could do a one-time declaration that the debts were redominated into Dinars along with everything else. If they had been on Dinars the whole time, the debts would be in Dollars, Francs, and Euros and they'd have no outs at all. It would have been like the Thai Bhat crisis of 1997 or any other foreign debt deleveraging crisis you care to name from the last hundred years.

Yes, the Eurozone is run as a defacto gold standard and that's fucking retarded, but for little countries like Greece, Ireland, and Portugal that's not actually different from having to borrow in outright foreign currency - which is absolutely what they'd have to do if they weren't part of a monetary union.

As an American you get to chuckle and chortle about how many advantages you have by having your own currency that's reasonably well managed. And yes, that's true. But that's only a thing because you're in a big and very tightly united empire. The United States has a GDP 50% larger than the Euro Area, so the individual states of the USA are very much beholden to the Dollar in exactly the same way as individual countries are beholden to the Euro. Exactly the same. Even more so, in fact, because the Dollar is more entrenched and most states don't even have a single representative on the controlling board of the Federal Reserve. The issue is only that the Federal Reserve system is older and the Dollar is better managed than the Euro system. That and there is a stronger federal government that provides cash transfers to states that have economic problems.

The problem facing Portugal is not that it is too integrated into the rest of Europe. It's that it's not integrated enough.

-Frank
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 4:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:
Your super genius plan of dividing shit up until there are times and areas that leftists can win in is called "Letting the South Win The Civil War." It is not actually a super genius plan and doesn't make the world a better place.

If you divide shit up into small pieces you don't get to spread the word of social democracy, you get to have large parts of the planet descend into savagery, slavery, and genocide.We've had nice little Scandinavian social democracies sitting around making massive gains in human social wellbeing for their few million people and they haven't managed to export their way of life very much. Neo-fascist countries like Hungary have managed to export white nationalist terrorists to Norway, but Norway hasn't managed to impose its ideas on land mine bans on anyone.

If you divide things up into smaller pieces you'll be able to win some fights that you otherwise wouldn't be able to. But much more often you'll lose fights that you otherwise wouldn't.

The super genius plan is not for all seven billion people on the planet to go their separates ways and live in isolated communes, where, like, everything is free, man, and we all just, like, work together, you know? The super genius plan is to identify the institutions which advance conservative causes and reform them or replace them, because we should not support conservatism in its fight to ruin the world and our lives. So the actual fucking discussion is entirely about to what extent the EU supports conservative and progressive values, to what extent it can be reformed to do less of the former and more of the latter, and if there is no viable way to do that then what is the least painful way to replace it. Well, the EU has done nothing of substance to stem the actual rise of actual fascism and the erosion of civil liberties in some of its member states. It has used its authority to bludgeon individual state governments to economic collapse for daring to advance progressive economics as a solution to global crises. It has set monetary and fiscal standards which are deeply harmful to basically everyone that isn't Germany. It has encouraged the dismantling of public health services whenever given leverage to do so.

There are a lot of coherent responses you could make to that, and I don't think you have ever actually found a single one of them in any of our discussions about this shit. It is always bullshit strawmen. For fuck's sake, you interpreted a specific condemnation of the EU as a broad condemnation of federalization in order to suggest that I am pro-states rights and therefore apathetic to the existence of the Confederate States of America. Alternative interpretation; specific condemnations of the EU for being a harmful federal government do not suggest an underlying opposition to federal governments, and instead suggest an underlying opposition to harmful governments - harmful governments like the Confederate States of America, perhaps. So, what could you have done instead of chaining a PL-tier strawmanning shitpost into a slavery-themed application of Godwin's law?

You could have just been wrong, and disagreed that those things were happening at all.

You could have just declared that the parts you like (open borders, minimum regulatory standards) are worth letting conservatism destroy countries. And that would make you a stupid asshole because the basis for those things was successfully implemented before the eurozone even existed, and there is no dependency. The EU treaties have been renegotiated both piecemeal and in entirety several times, and we should be talking about doing that again because guess fucking what the eurozone isn't working. It demonstrably is not working. For fuck's sake, remember the Great Depression? Imagine what the Great Depression would have been like if during FDR's first term a conspiracy between foreign governments, the United States federal reserve, and a coalition of banks and private enterprises had orchestrated an even deeper collapse of the banking system, driving the democratic party into the woods and putting a Hoover 2.0 back in charge almost immediately? Because that is almost literally what the EU is doing to Greece and anyone else it can! Their unilateral demands for austerity and willingness to crush leftwing governments in order to get it is driving progressives into the woods and the left into the center. And because of assholes like you, it isn't even manifesting in significant leftwing backlash against the EU that might flip it or put pressure on it to change course.

We could have an argument about the difficulty of reforming the EU versus the shock of transitioning to a different system of treaties. I've tried to have that discussion once, digging up a bunch of shit about how the EU legislative process works and how incredibly, staggeringly, mind-bogglingly bullshit it is. For all the bullshit strawmen you trot out to avoid talking about it, this is our actual point of disagreement. You think reform is possible, and I think you're an idiot. At this point it'll be a miracle if we manage to salvage the U.S. federal government from becoming the next Russia, and the EU is arguably even more democratically fucked than that, and yet that is an institution you apparently have faith in.

FrankTrollman wrote:
See the big problem with fights over small areas is that they are easy for small groups of rich people to gain undue influence over. That's why we do so much worse in Montana than we do in New York. It's not that there isn't more money in New York, it's that individual groups of rich crackpots just have an easier time dominating politics in a small pool of 1 million people than it is to push things around in a populous area of nearly 20 million people.

Ten smallest states:
Wyoming (red)
Vermont (blue)
Alaska (red)
North Dakota (red)
South Dakota (red)
Delaware (blue)
Montana (red)
Rhode Island (blue)
Maine (blue)
New Hampshire (still blue, barely)

That is a 50-50 split. Also, funny note; Steve Daines (Republican, Montana) got a higher percentage of his campaign funding from small donors in his last election than Chuck Schumer (Democrat, New York) did in his. No, the big difference between Chuck Schumer and Steve Daines is that Chuck Schumer got a lot of money from large individual contributions and Steve Daines got a lot of money from PAC's. I think the take-away there is that Democrats suck a bunch of wealthy cock generally, while Republicans just suck the Koch Brothers' cock specifically, and they suck it hard. Which also explains why the Democratic party has a centrist wing where "good ol' common sense economics" prevails (and that common sense is almost variably about how to help the average citizen in the most minimally effective and plutocrat-friendly way and talk it about like it's a compromise with "harsh reality"") and the Republicans are batshit insane loot-and-pillage-the-country-from-within types.

History (specifically, the 1960's), gerrymandering, and the voter suppression (or at least voter chilling) are a better explanation for why the U.S. electoral map looks the way it does than "small states are easier to buy influence in," because Democrats are competitive in small states. And they are competitive in big states. And they are absolutely shit in a lot more middle states because those states are what we call the deep south and they're racist as shit.

FrankTrollman wrote:
The problem facing Portugal is not that it is too integrated into the rest of Europe. It's that it's not integrated enough.

That is abso-fucking-lutely not true. There are two problems with the EU.

The first is that the power afforded to the EU's federal institutions does not match their level of democratic accountability. That is the same problem that made Donald Trump president and is likely going to result in the repeal of Obamacare once the last few holdouts stop pretending to wring their hands and beg for meaningless concessions; the systems are undemocratic enough that they do not accurately reflect the desires of voters, and so voters end up getting shat on. The solution to that is either less integration or a true federal government. If the EU has less power, then its lack of democratic accountability means fuck all because they can't use it to hurt anyone. If there's a massive reform that results in a United States of Europe whose president and parliament set policy for the whole of Europe in a tangible, direct, highly visible way and the electoral systems for those offices aren't ass, then the EU can be trusted to manage Portugal. It cannot be trusted with monetary authority over Portugal given Portugal's (and other small states') current levels of representation. The system is too fucked for that.

The second problem is that European conservatives have a deep, stable well of influence (Germany being the most obvious) and European progressives... don't. The fact is that it's kind of fucking stupid for California to be a part of the United States. The government takes more from California than it puts in, the Supreme Court occasionally bitchslaps them for having the audacity to pass consumer protection laws, and whenever Republicans are in charge at the federal level (which is shaping up to be "from now until forever" unless the Supreme Court rules we have a constitutional protection against gerrymandering) they try to pass laws telling the state of California to fuck their people over as hard as they possibly can. If California were an independent nation assessing whether or not to become the fiftieth, the correct answer would be "oh fuck no please keep your stupid to yourself." But at least California has states like New York and Vermont and so forth and so on who consistently share its interest in a more progressive union, and it can work together with those states to advance that interest - and for awhile it even looked like they would win, though now things are... less hopeful. Europe does not really have that. The progressive well is shallow and fickle, and it would be stupid for progressive governments to advocate joining the EU. They're signing on to a federal government which is for the foreseeable future going to consistently lean conservative and attempt to restrain them or even sabotage them, just as it's been doing for the past eight years.
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