MtG: Hour of Devastation Draft

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MtG: Hour of Devastation Draft

Post by Username17 »

So there's a new set coming out, and that means a new draft format. This will be drafted with 2 packs of Hour of Devastation and 1 pack of Amonkhet. So let's talk a little bit about Amonkhet drafting and how things are going to be different.

The first thing to note about Amonkhet is that the equilibrium was based around fast decks. Turn 1 and Turn 2 plays were really important and slow durdly decks were not very good. You could play the control and win, but you needed to invest in your own set of early plays so that you could block and trade in the early game and not just fucking die. A deck drafted with a normal sort of curve and some pretty decent cards would just get smashed to bits by high quality bears. This is a format with Cycling, but the cost of cycling is really high because your opponent is packing a bunch of 2 drops with upside.

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Shit like this is essentially unplayable in Amonkhet Draft, which is surprising because in most draft formats it would be an all star.

Now with added Hour of Devastation, things undeniably are going to slow down, which means that big dumb hippos and shit are a lot better than they used to be. The primary reason is the lack of 1-drops. In the Amonkhet packs there are playable 1 cost creatures in every single color. At common. In fact, White got two 1-cost creatures at common, and Black and Red got a 1-cost creature at Common, Uncommon, and Rare. Hour of Devastation does not have those. Only White, Green and Blue get 1-cost creatures at all, and the White one is hot garbage. So while the effective number of 1-cost creatures for Green/Blue decks has gone up substantially, every other color is looking at basically having 66% less access to 1-drops in any pod.

Now there are still plenty of 2-drops (there are 2 separate common 2-cost creatures in every color except Black that gets 3, and most of them are good at attacking). Hour/Hour/Amonkhet is still a format where you'll want to beat face, play a tight curve, and have 16 lands in your deck. But remember that there are literally no Fanbearers or Festering Mummies until pack 3, so the format simply cannot be as fast as Amonkhet was in the hands of skilled drafters. But you still can't plan to survive to play a 5 or 6 cost haymaker without playing early blockers or removal.

Another thing to note is that Blue is simply a lot better and a lot more aggro than you remember it. The new blue commons are super aggro and high quality. Blue is also the proud owner of the only 1-drop creature you don't feel stupid about playing in the first two packs.

Amonkhet is a larger set than Hour of Devastation. And while that has various effects on the chances of drawing any particular rare, it is most felt in the commons for Draft. There are 75 Commons in Hour of Devastation and 116 Commons in Amonkhet. So while in triple Amonkhet an eight person pod would open an average of 2.07 copies of each common, in Hour/Hour/Amonkhet the same 8 player pod opens 2.13 copies of each Hour Common and only 0.69 copies of each Amonkhet Common. So an average table in Amonkhet draft would open 6.21 blue common creatures of cost 1 or 2, but in Hour of devastation the table opens an average of 8.47 blue common 1 and 2 drop creatures. That is the difference between the table supporting "maybe up to two Blue drafters" and "definitely two Blue drafters and maybe three." On the flip side, known super-deep color White used to have an average of 10.3 1 and 2 cost creatures in a pod, and now is down to 9.85 (7.78 if you don't count the 1 cost 0/4). Which pushes White down from "usually supports three drafters" to "may support three drafters."

Anyway, on to the archetypes:

White/Blue
Before:Tokens

Now: Go Wide

White/Blue was hard to make work because Blue was the worst color. I don't think that's true anymore. You're still looking to play cheap critters and/or tokens and load them up with auras and equipment. But now you have more access to cheap aggressive creatures from the blue side.

White/Black
Before: Zombies

Now: Zombies

White/Black Zombies was a great archetype because it could play both sides of attack and defense easily and well. That still appears to be true. You get early blockers if you want them and some grindy card advantage stuff, or you can just bring the beats. An important thing to note is that most of the Zombie tribal bonuses in Hour of Devastation only work while attacking, so despite getting a 0/4 for W that gains you life, the archetype should probably be a bit more likely to want to be the aggressor in any matchup.

White/Red
Before: Exert Aggro

Now: Exert Aggro
It's just harder to make an ultra-low curve Red/White deck because there are less agrro white creatures and less aggro red creatures being opened. This archetype is still real good, but my guess is that it will probably continue to be overdrafted for a bit because of how much better it was than other archetypes in triple Amonkhet. With less high impact low cost creatures, the deck has to rely more on combat tricks and burn.

White/Green
Before: Stuff

Now: Go Wide Stuff

White Green lacked an identity, and while you could make good White/Green decks, they were usually fairly eclectic piles of cards. I drafted a super sweet token spam deck with Annointer Priests and Sacred Cat and shit, and it was basically like Sam Black's deck except much shittier because it was draft. But the Green in the deck did not contribute very much that was on-theme. It was there for some extra cheap creatures and a couple of bombs.

And to be honest, Green/White is still kind of like that. But your uncommon Gold card is now a big more focused on going wide and your Green cards are a bit better in the early game.

Blue/Black
Before: Cycling Control

Now: Cycling Midrange

Blue/Black was the deck that came together least frequently in Amonkhet. Which is another way of saying that it was the worst archetype. Blue/Black Cycling might still be the worst archetype, but it's a lot more likely to come together. The big difference is what your Cycling payoff cards look like. Where before they tended to be big dumb creatures you wouldn't survive to cast, now they have a tendency to be 2 and 3 cost creatures that get modest bonuses to attack power for cycling. It's a much more plausible game plan, though still unlikely to be great.

Blue/Red
Before: Prowess

Now: Prowess

Blue/Red was the hardest deck to put together in triple Amonkhet. It was a delicate blend of combat tricks, counters, removal, and agile creatures. Decent when it worked, but you had very little control over how many Enigma Drakes got opened. Blue/Red in Hour of Devastation is much the same, but the addition of common Red and Blue creatures with Prowess that are also hard to block profitably makes this archetype much better.

Also it's important to note that decks that run a lot of instants get better when you have two sets mixed together, because it becomes harder for your opponent to guess what tricks you have up your sleeve when you have two sets to draw from.

Blue/Green
Before: Ramp or Evasion Rush

Now: Same Choice

There were two main Blue Green decks in Amonkhet. The one you were most likely to end up in was Blue/Green Ramp. That deck is mediocre even when you get good ramp targets. The better one was an aggressive deck with evasion and card draw. Slither Blade plus Sixth Sense is OP.

You are presented with the same choice in Hour of Devastation. The aggro evasion deck looks like it's a little easier to draft because Green and Blue have the only aggressive 1-drops in the first two packs, but the fact that there are less Cartouches and Slither Blades probably means the ceiling is a bit lower. Ramp looks better, because the new bridge card is a 4 mana 2/4 that can exert for 2 mana, so a turn 5 Hippo or Sandwurm is totally reasonable.

Black/Red
Before: Empty Hand Aggro

Now: Regular Aggro

In Amonkhet they pushed a "Heckbent" mechanic where cards would go off when you had one card in hand. The rarities on the good ones were such that it was honestly rarely a thing that came together. In Hour of Devastation there aren't any heckbent synergies, and while there are a few Minotaurs who get bigger when you discard (and thus Neheb is even better if you get him in pack 3), you're mostly just a standard aggro deck with a bunch of removal. This is a perfectly fine place to be, and I think the archetype will be better.

Black/Green
Before: Wither

Now: Control

Black Green was the best controlling archetype in Amonkhet. And it still is. The wither tokens are pretty much all in Black, so you can do Withering stuff as Black/Red or whatever, but there are still some payoffs in Green. Teh self damaging Green cards are nowhere to be seen in the first two packs, so it'll be less often that you can go off with Nest of Scarabs in this format.

Red/Green
Before: Stompy

Now: Stompy

Red Green is almost always a midrange deck with a lot of oversized tramplers and some damage based removal. That has not changed.

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Post by Username17 »

And now I think it's time for some predictions about major over and undervalued cards.


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Look carefully at these two cards. They are basically the same card. There's some minor advantages and disadvantages to both, but the bottom line is that both are 4 mana cards that attack for 3 every turn and make blocking a nightmare for the opponent and get to do it again next turn. A deck that is aggressive enough to want either probably wants both equally. Would you believe that the current consensus among pros is that the zombie is a top draft pick and that the torment is unplayable trash? Don't make that mistake.

The issue here is that historically "punisher" mechanics are much worse than they appear, because even if both options are quite bad, the fact that your opponent gets to choose the one that impacts them the least means that the impact is much less than you'd hope. That having been said, punisher cards being worse than they appear doesn't mean that they are bad. Sin Prodder and Combustible Gearhulk are quite nice (Combustible Gearhulk is a core card in Mardu Reanimator and 4C Panharmonicon, Sin Prodder is played in fucking Legacy). Especially repeated punisher mechanics like Sin Prodder or Torment of Scarabs rapidly grind your opponent out of acceptable options, and then they just generate a ridiculous amount of value one way or the other.

On that note...
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This card is very expensive, but as 7 mana finishers go it certainly is one. LSV marked this card as "Bad Filler" but it's a legit bomb. It's pretty much like Toxic Deluge where your opponent pays the life.

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You see some of the pros rating cards giving this ridiculously high ratings. It's not a particularly good card. You will play it in Green/Blue because you are interested in a 1/3 flyer for 2 mana. But is this thing actually better than a Feral Prowler? Probably not. Games will not go on long enough for you to activate a Hoopoe very often, and when they do, you'd rather have a Devotee of Strength threatening to activate to make you win fights and win the game.

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LSV rated this a "solid playable" and PV thought it would be a cornerstone of Blue. This card is basically unplayable. I mean, it's basically a Winged Shepherd except you get a 5/5 Hexproof instead of a 3/3 Flyer. And it costs 7 mana. You need a 7 drop to do more for you than to trade with a Hooded Brawler. Even if the game lasted long enough to play a 7-cost finisher, this isn't a finisher. It's a midsize creature with no evasion.

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Post by Prak »

I got Torment of Hailfire as my prerelease card and it was fucking amazing. It's expensive, sure, and usually people will choose to discard, but it is a very good card.
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Post by Ancient History »

We talked about this, but Solemnity is a bit of an odd duck. Is there any draft deck which would be more inclined to pick it up, or is it better suited to constructed deck sideboards?

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Post by Username17 »

Solemnity is mostly a Legacy card where you use Phyrexian Unlife to live long enough to draw your Dark Depths.

Image Image

In Modern, Solemnity is usally just a hate card for Infect decks, but it's also acceptable to use it in some sort of Kitchen Finks sacrifice engine combo deck:

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The thing is that for going infinite in Modern, you'd usually rather have the Vizier of Remedies from Amonkhet:

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Not only is the Vizier 1 mana cheaper and searchable with Release the Menagerie and Collected Company, but it also is involved with an infinite combo that Solemnity can't do.

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Placing the -1/-1 counter on Devoted Druid is a cost, so with Solemnity in play you can't do it. But with Vizier in play you can still put the counters on, you just put one less (which is to say: no counters at all) and you get infinite mana. Either goes infinite with a Kitchen Finks and a sac outlet.

Anyway, in limited you wouldn't play Solemnity. You might possibly sideboard it in if your opponent had a Nest of Scarabs, but probably you wouldn't even do that because if they don't get their nest the -1/-1 counters they are putting on their Crocodiles and shit are actual legit drawbacks and Solemnity is quite likely to help them out.

Edit: in older formats you might also be able to do something with Solemnity and the fact that it technically prevents Cumulative Upkeep costs from happening by keeping the Age Counters at zero.

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Last edited by Username17 on Wed Jul 12, 2017 5:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Prak »

Mirage Mirror also has some interesting synergy with older cards like Dark Depths, since it becomes a copy in play rather than creating a copy and thus ETB effects on the thing you copy don't trigger.
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Post by OgreBattle »

Do any of the new cards stand out art wise?
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Post by Prak »

There's a full gallery here: http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/ar ... evastation

I think in general the Hours cycle of cards have some really stand out art, the Torment vertical (rarity) cycle, less so, but still pretty spectacular. And, as usual, the art for the full art lands is pretty amazing too.
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Post by ...You Lost Me »

I think Riverwinder will see play, if only because it's the only blue common with CMC>4. The next in line is Aven Reedstalker, a 3U flying for 2/3. You'd likely prefer a Shimmerscale Drake, Ominous Sphinx, or Angler Drake, but you're not guaranteed to get those. A big blue creature that dodges removal is decent, and the cheap cycling means you can probably squeeze an extra one in your deck.
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Post by Username17 »

...You Lost Me wrote:I think Riverwinder will see play, if only because it's the only blue common with CMC>4. The next in line is Aven Reedstalker, a 3U flying for 2/3. You'd likely prefer a Shimmerscale Drake, Ominous Sphinx, or Angler Drake, but you're not guaranteed to get those. A big blue creature that dodges removal is decent, and the cheap cycling means you can probably squeeze an extra one in your deck.
I think Blue decks want to be real low to the ground and real aggro. The premier common is a 2/1 with Prowess and Afflict. That does not scream "wait around to play a 7-drop" to me.

Blue decks want to be lean and aggressive, with relatively few heavy hitters. So I don't actually think they give a single god damn about expensive commons. They can afford to play only Uncommons and Rares in their bomb slots because most of their 12 cards are going to want to be aggro creatures and tempo spells.

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