Lokey wrote:It's still fascinating that so few decks see tournament play/top placement out of a card pool of what 2k? Have something to ask first:
How will things change when the last block or two rotate out? Assuming the next release isn't crazy power creep of course. Of course it seems that the elder evil or whatever cards have been printed multiple times too
Well the top 8 is pretty much always made out of the most popular decks, because the difference between a tier 1 deck and a better tier 1 deck is only a few percentage points and the skill gradient between people at pro tours isn't that much. In the draft portion there were 47 3-0 records on day 1 and 6 6-0 records after day 2. That is literally exactly the result you'd get if you just had everyone flip some fucking coins.
Anyway, there's a great deal of herd mentality going on. People are mostly going to be working on established archetypes because the most
likely result is that you're going to end up playing one of them and so are most of your opponents and squeezing a few percentage points out of common matchups is the best route to top 8. Still, there were 35 different decks at Pro Tour Amonkhet, and aside from a few meme decks trying to win through surprise they were mostly pretty good. Still, day 1 looked like this:
With Mardu Vehicles being the deck to beat, Mardu Vehicles did real bad, and Top 8 was four Marvel, 3 Zombies, and 1 Black Green. Which is again almost exactly what you'd expect to happen if everyone was just flipping coins. So there's no particular reason to think you shouldn't play White Black Control or Jund Gods or Cryptolith Rites or whatever, because all those decks did fine. I got my Worthy Champion playmat on Gamesday playing Mono-Red Hazoret's Monument to Vampires.
As to what happens when Rotation happens, the most likely result is: Nothing. Currently the deck to beat is Marvel. Marvel runs a big Energy package and Energy is only available in Kaladesh. When Innistrad and Zendikar rotate out, we lose Allies, we lose Eldrazi, we lose Emerge, we lose Madness, we lose Delirium. But Energy stays put. Marvel can run Aetherwind Baskers and Whales instead of Ulamog and that is fine. The big deck of the moment doesn't actually need
any of the cards that are rotating.
That being said, there's two more sets that come out and two more ban list updates for the rotation. Hour of Devastation could create a few new archetypes, as could the first set of the Ixalan block, which launches simultaneously with Innistrad and Zendikar leaving Standard. I think it's really likely that Marvel is going to end up on the banned list for Hour of Devastation.
-Username17