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Kaelik
ArchDemon of Rage


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Oh I see, if your plan was to increase the popular vote by MIND CONTROL then yeah, I guess 5% is fine.

But you know, if you didn't mean MIND CONTROL, and you meant instead something actually possible, like convincing people to vote for you with campaign and talking and events and stuff, then you can't magically pour 4% of national voters into a single state or three.

So you need more than 55% of the popular vote.
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Lago PARANOIA
Invincible Overlord


Joined: 25 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Clinton 2016 lost on the vote (especially when you account for population growth) compared to Obama 2012 but she increased the California vote margin by a whopping 8% despite faltering across the board.

Those kinds of swings in states are absolutely possible between elections if you make a good-faith effort.
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Josh Kablack wrote:
Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Kaelik
ArchDemon of Rage


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Lago PARANOIA wrote:
Clinton 2016 lost on the vote (especially when you account for population growth) compared to Obama 2012 but she increased the California vote margin by a whopping 8% despite faltering across the board.

Those kinds of swings in states are absolutely possible between elections if you make a good-faith effort.


No they aren't.

No one made any effort in California. These kinds of swings are a function of demographics, which if anything run directly contrary to your stated goal of somehow zero fucking extra votes in California and lots of extra votes in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, PA, Virginia, Indiana.

Campaigning doesn't magically create the 5% extra votes you need in specific states, and those are the states you need the (actually way more than 5%) increase in to break the gerrymanders.

You are just a delusional idiot. Accept it. Move on. You need 60% of the vote nationally to beat the gerrymanders, you don't have it, Republicans will control the house after the 2018 election, you don't live in a democracy. Accept reality and try to operate within it instead of imagining a mythical future where California is won by 51-49 margins and Michigan is won by 60-40 margins.
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RobbyPants
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Lago PARANOIA wrote:
Especially because I was positive that Trump was going down in flames after the 'grab them by the p*ssy' tape came out.

Instead, we learned how powerful Republican apologia really is.
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maglag
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

RobbyPants wrote:
Lago PARANOIA wrote:
Especially because I was positive that Trump was going down in flames after the 'grab them by the p*ssy' tape came out.

Instead, we learned how powerful Republican apologia really is.


Did you miss Bush, second of his name, winning his re-election by chance?
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Lago PARANOIA
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Joined: 25 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Kaelik wrote:
These kinds of swings are a function of demographics, which if anything run directly contrary to your stated goal of somehow zero fucking extra votes in California and lots of extra votes in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, PA, Virginia, Indiana.
WHAT demographics? Clinton had an 8% swing against her with the Latinx vote nationally and also faltered with the Millenial vote. Given her across-the-board stumbling, there's no mere passive explanation for her kicking ass in California in 2016 compared to Obama 2012, especially considering that, due to population changes, she had to make up about 300k votes just to be at Obama's levels.

The only explanation here is that there's some unique factor in California that caused Clinton to rally the vote to record levels despite her headwinds. Without some other explanation, I'm thinking it was good, old-fashioned retail politics. And if it was good, old-fashioned retail politics there's no reason why Obama in 2012 or whoever in 2020 can't replicate the old Clinton California magic.

maglag wrote:
Did you miss Bush, second of his name, winning his re-election by chance?
I, and no doubt other Denners, have a pretty dim view of American politics but until November 8, 2012 it wasn't THAT dim.
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Josh Kablack wrote:
Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.


Last edited by Lago PARANOIA on Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:27 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Kaelik
ArchDemon of Rage


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Lago PARANOIA wrote:
WHAT demographics? Clinton had an 8% swing against her with the Latinx vote nationally and also faltered with the Millenial vote.


Clearly you don't understand what "demographics" means, so let me spell it out for you.

When Clinton does worse nationally with whites, blacks, and Hispanics, but gets more votes in some places than others, it's worth asking if those places have more of the type of voter she did well with (Hispanics, millennials) than the type of voter she did badly with (whites, old people) compared to when Obama was running.

And in fact, California population is weighted with a bellcurve around millennials, and California has had a constantly growing Hispanic population for ever, and there is no reason to think that the trend that turned California from a state with more whites than hispanics (in 2012) to a state with more Hispanics than (non-Hispanic) whites (in 2014) did anything but continue on the same path.

And if you increase the number of people who voted +36 points for Clinton (Hispanics) and decreased the numbers who voted +21 for Trump (Whites) you get .... DUN DUN DUN! MORE VOTES FOR CLINTON THAN BEFORE YOU DID THAT!
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deaddmwalking
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Joined: 21 May 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Even before the election, FiveThirtyEight had a 'possible scenario' that turned out to be prophetic. It involved Clinton picking up EXTRA VOTES in states she was already going to win, and falling short in states she absolutely needed.

Latino turnout rises from 48 percent in 2012 to 54 percent, and their support for Democrats increases from 71 percent to 74 percent (among other)

FiveThirtyEight wrote:

The result? Clinton would carry the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points. However, Trump would win the Electoral College with 280 votes by holding all 24 Romney states and flipping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District from blue to red. And the real disparity between the electoral and popular votes could be larger, because this model doesn’t even factor in Trump’s Mormon problem.


Last edited by deaddmwalking on Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Ancient History
Invincible Overlord


Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

http://www.newsweek.com/man-rescued-taliban-didnt-believe-trump-was-president-685861
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Lago PARANOIA
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Joined: 25 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Kaelik wrote:
And in fact, California population is weighted with a bellcurve around millennials, and California has had a constantly growing Hispanic population for ever, and there is no reason to think that the trend that turned California from a state with more whites than hispanics (in 2012) to a state with more Hispanics than (non-Hispanic) whites (in 2014) did anything but continue on the same path.
Do those two things sufficiently account for Clinton's rockstar performance in California? I don't think it does.

Median age did not change in California between 2012 and 2016. Now, this doesn't discount the possibility of median age increasing differently between races, in a direction such that the median age of Hispanics went down while everyone else's went up, but I'll show in a minute how this doesn't matter for this argument.

The Hispanic eligible vote in California increased by 1 million between 2010 and 2014, from 5.9 to 6.9 million. Obviously, not all of them are going to vote. The 2012 Turnout for Hispanics (I can't find California, specific) was a shade under 48%. I don't have data on 2016, but since 2008 had 49.9% We can assume turnout won't be more than 2% lower. California's raw population in 2012 was 38 million, its population in 2016 was 39.25 million.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/appendix-a-national-and-selected-state-results/
Obama's 70% with California Latinos.

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/california/president
Clinton's 71% with California Latinos

However, I've also read methodology that puts Clinton's performance at the 80% range, rather than 71%. Let's use that instead. So. Let's tally it up. 1 million more eligible Hispanic voters going from 2012 to 2016. 48% of them turned out. Let's say she got 80% of this cohort who did vote.

That gets her 385k+ votes from demographics + Trump being a fascist pig.

Since the pre-existing Hispanic electorate in 2012 was 5.9 million (obviously there were some deaths and the demographic isn't uniform with new voters, but let's just ignore that) and she increased the vote share from 71% to 80% according to one of my links, that's another 255k votes assuming a similar Hispanic turnout of 48% over 2012 Obama.

But she improved on Obama's margins by a million votes. Where do the other votes come from? Here's an idea.

https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-about-white-people-romney-won-white-vote-almost-everywhere/
Quote:
The pattern is not limited to the South, with its history of racism and segregation. Even in the deepest blue states, white voters went for Romney: 53 percent in California, 52 percent in New York, 55 percent in Pennsylvania.


http://www.sacbee.com/opinion/california-forum/article119870398.html
Quote:
Well, no whites have suffered more abrupt, rattling demotion than California’s. Yet, California whites, who have plenty of experience with actual immigrants, voted against Trump by a 5 percentage point margin. Reading and triangulating 2016 election exit polls shows Californian whites vote very differently from other whites around the country – including those in New York, a similarly affluent, educated Democrat bastion. New York whites supported Trump by a 6-point margin, a pro-Republican switch of 12 percentage points from 2008. At the opposite political node, Texas’ white folks may be tasting diversity but want none of it; they handed Trump a 43 percentage point landslide.

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Josh Kablack wrote:
Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.


Last edited by Lago PARANOIA on Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:41 am; edited 2 times in total
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Judging__Eagle
Prince


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
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Location: Lake Ontario is in my backyard; Canada

PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Apparently what happened under the Trump administration's watch along the Mali-Niger border might be a bigger fiasco than what happened in Benghazi.

Briefly:
Sending in troops:
  • w/out remotely good intel (i.e. "it was unlikely that they would meet any hostile forces.") about potential opposition (Instead: 50+ Isis-aligned enemy combatants vs 12 US troops) Thanks Trump Pentagon
  • w/out air support (French Mirages w/out authorization to fire, just "fly bys")
  • w/out armoured vehicles (pickup trucks; not even up-gunned or up-armoured pickups (i.e. technicals))
  • w/out military pickup (private contractors who didn't perform headcounts)

    Which resulted in abandoning US personnel on the ground; who was alive (and activated their location monitor equipment); but was found dead 48 hours later.
    The fact that their funeral service will be closed casket means that they were also disfigured xor mutilated before or after they were killed.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/18/politics/us-niger-investigation-what-we-know/index.html

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/10/19/1708310/--Somewhere-in-Niger-was-worse-than-Benghazi
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    RobbyPants
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    PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    Putin calls on Americans to respect his puppet
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    erik
    Prince


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    PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    Trump plans to release most of JFK government assassination investigation documents.

    Honestly this is probably more of the bidding of his Russian masters since they'd delight at stirring up any of our dirty laundry, but I don't care. It is long past due. Even if there's nothing to know, I don't see what the virtue is in keeping crap classified for 50 years.
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    Voss
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    PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    You're reading only the title, apparently, because you've got the situation entirely backwards. The presidents approval here is a rubber stamp to the natural end of the classification period- they become declassified unless he decides to keep some of them secret (as the CIA head and a couple others seem to want).

    Despite Trump's tweets, this isn't some 'victory' or major achievement of his. This is the end of the 50 year period, so they become declassified automatically if the President (Trump) doesn't decree otherwise. The only potential obstacle here is himself
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    FrankTrollman
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    PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

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    erik
    Prince


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    PostPosted: Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    Voss wrote:
    This is the end of the 50 year period, so they become declassified automatically if the President (Trump) doesn't decree otherwise. The only potential obstacle here is himself


    And on any other issue that would be a more than sufficient obstacle to fuck everything up.
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    FrankTrollman
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    PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    The JFK documents become public access on October 26 due to a 1992 law signed by George Bush Senior. The President has the option of meeting with national security and law enforcement experts to determine which (if any) of those documents need to be designated with a new classification status at that point.

    Donald Trump is simply declining to go to the meetings or do any actual work. It's possible that a reasonable president would conclude that none of the documents need to be classified. But that's not what's going on. Donald Trump is just too lazy and incompetent to have the result be anything other than tthe default output of the President doing nothing.

    And then he's taking to twitter to boast about his accomplishment of doing nothing and taking no action. Because of course he is.

    -Frank
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    Koumei
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    PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    Can everyone brag about not doing a fucking thing? Because if so, I have some big announcements regarding the last few years.
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    Thaluikhain
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    PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    FrankTrollman wrote:
    And then he's taking to twitter to boast about his accomplishment of doing nothing and taking no action. Because of course he is.


    Eh, if he were continue to do nothing and just sit quietly for the next few years I'd consider that a big step forwards.
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    Ancient History
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    PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/10/21/the-cascade-of-missteps-that-turned-one-white-house-error-into-a-messy-week/?utm_term=.d9ca9b7a9cee
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    angelfromanotherpin
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    PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    My favorite part was when Drumpf issued his denial and all the Trumpists immediately pivoted from 'it was a perfectly reasonable thing to say' to 'how dare you suggest he'd say such a thing.'
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    Ancient History
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    PostPosted: Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List


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    Voss
    Prince


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    PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    erik wrote:
    Voss wrote:
    This is the end of the 50 year period, so they become declassified automatically if the President (Trump) doesn't decree otherwise. The only potential obstacle here is himself


    And on any other issue that would be a more than sufficient obstacle to fuck everything up.


    Surprise!
    He blocked an undisclosed amount.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41771923

    Quote:
    "I am ordering today that the veil finally be lifted," Mr Trump wrote in a memo directing the heads of executive departments and agencies to release the documents.

    ...except on the ones being kept secret for 6 more months, or more.


    And what is being released is strange. The first things that come up
    https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/2017-release
    are conversations between Kissinger and Ford in '75 about missile agreements with the Soviets. It mentions assassinations in passing, but isn't clear on whose. Another goes over CIA assassination plans of foreign leaders, again from the 70s.

    Whoever managed these records did a shit job. Or they had a box of unrelated material they accidentally declassified.
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    RobbyPants
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    PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    Keep people talking about something other than Trump's failures?
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    angelfromanotherpin
    King


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    PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

    RobbyPants wrote:
    Keep people talking about something other than Trump's failures?

    Or his collusion.

    Spoilered for length.
    Click here to see the hidden message (It might contain spoilers)

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