Coronavirus thread

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:01 am

Don't worry, they're still saying how under socialism you'll have empty shelves in shopping centres. As in, the actual thing that is actually happening right now under unchecked Capitalism. The hypothetical bad situations of hypothetical socialist governments are actual real problems in actual real capitalist systems.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:43 am

Koumei wrote:Don't worry, they're still saying how under socialism you'll have empty shelves in shopping centres. As in, the actual thing that is actually happening right now under unchecked Capitalism. The hypothetical bad situations of hypothetical socialist governments are actual real problems in actual real capitalist systems.

In times of deep economic depression and under-production, Keynesians, Social Democrats, Democratic Socialists, Hard Core Communists, Liberal Democrats, Technocrats, Neo-Liberals, Ordo-Liberals, and essentially every other consistent economic theory held by people with the barest minimum of good-faith advocacy will be advocating pretty much the same thing: massive government assistance plans.

You have enormous reserve armies of unallocated labor and no means for the private sector to usefully or even meaningfully employ it all, but you also have fiat money and a government so some amount of those people can be put to work productively by the government at negative real cost. How much of the economy the government should be planning is a thing that real smart people can have good faith disagreement about when the economy is at or near 'full employment' but when everything is plague masks and wheelbarrows there's no discussion to be had. Every person the government puts to work providing some kind of public service is a person who would otherwise be in house arrest waiting for the next Brazzers release.

This is precisely the time when you can test the metal of every single person who made any kind of argument against any public spending on fucking anything. Anyone who isn't behind increases in public spending now was never serious about any discussions at any time. Because now the resources that would otherwise be allocated are literally just squandered if the government doesn't step up.

There are legitimate disagreements people can have about whether they want to wind down the government's market intervention at the end of this crisis and by how much, but anyone who doesn't want to wind up the government's market intervention now is just fundamentally unserious. People can't work in the private sector, there is no cost to government employment programs right now.

-Username17

Stahlseele · Post by **Stahlseele** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:21 pm

first day working from home and i already hate it.

K · Post by K » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:58 pm

phlapjackage wrote:
K wrote:San Francisco and the Bay Area are under a Shelter in Place order.

This means "it is permissible for people to leave the house for facilities related to the following activities defined as essential: law and safety; essential government services; health care; pharmacies; child care; farming; groceries; food retailers; telecommunications; reduced capacity restaurants; hotels; social services; establishments; agencies that service the needy; gas stations; banks; laundry businesses; safety and sanitation businesses."

So yeh, shit just got real.
Do you know how they are enforcing this? Like, police patrolling and stopping people to ask why they are out? Have to show proof you are out for a permitted reason?

Mostly voluntary, right now.

That being said, there are almost no businesses open. There really isn't any place to go to.

Neeeek · Post by **Neeeek** » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:22 pm

K wrote:San Francisco and the Bay Area are under a Shelter in Place order.

This means "it is permissible for people to leave the house for facilities related to the following activities defined as essential: law and safety; essential government services; health care; pharmacies; child care; farming; groceries; food retailers; telecommunications; reduced capacity restaurants; hotels; social services; establishments; agencies that service the needy; gas stations; banks; laundry businesses; safety and sanitation businesses."

So yeh, shit just got real.

Did you read the whole ordinance? It's not as restrictive as the summary sounds. Technically, my job is considered essential enough to not be restricted, and I just do accounting stuff.

Staying home anyway. I haven't had a day off since January.

Iduno · Post by **Iduno** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:00 pm

All restaurants and similar establishments have been closed here, which means a lot of people are out of work. Our city council is aware that means they can't make rent. The solution is twofold. Give money to the companies and landlords who are losing money right now, and do more to punish all of the people who are about to become homeless.

K · Post by K » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:35 pm

Neeeek wrote:
K wrote:San Francisco and the Bay Area are under a Shelter in Place order.

This means "it is permissible for people to leave the house for facilities related to the following activities defined as essential: law and safety; essential government services; health care; pharmacies; child care; farming; groceries; food retailers; telecommunications; reduced capacity restaurants; hotels; social services; establishments; agencies that service the needy; gas stations; banks; laundry businesses; safety and sanitation businesses."

So yeh, shit just got real.
Did you read the whole ordinance? It's not as restrictive as the summary sounds. Technically, my job is considered essential enough to not be restricted, and I just do accounting stuff.

Staying home anyway. I haven't had a day off since January.

Well, the governor was talking about possibly using martial law in a press conference yesterday, so I think this thing might be more restrictive as we go.

K · Post by K » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:36 pm

Iduno wrote:All restaurants and similar establishments have been closed here, which means a lot of people are out of work. Our city council is aware that means they can't make rent. The solution is twofold. Give money to the companies and landlords who are losing money right now, and do more to punish all of the people who are about to become homeless.

Classy.

deaddmwalking · Post by **deaddmwalking** » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:12 pm

Not that this should shock anyone, but financial markets are down sharply.

The Dow 1 month ago was 29,232.19 (not a record high, but not far off from it). The low today was 18,917.46, but it is currently just above 20,000. That is, American's have lost about 1/3 of their wealth in their 401k in 1 month.

Many people consider the S&P a better indicator. On Feb 18th, it was 3,370.29 - again, not the record but not far from it. It's been mostly steadily falling since February 20th. It's currently at 2,345.16 with a low of 2,280.52 today. That's a decline in value of approximately 30% during this time.

The collapse of wealth in the stock market has impacts on how people recover. In the long run, stocks are a good investment, but they can be highly volatile - this is not unusual. This will certainly have an impact on Consumer Confidence.

Josh_Kablack · Post by **Josh_Kablack** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:40 am

deaddmwalking wrote:Not that this should shock anyone, but financial markets are down sharply.

Briefly in the interday today they were below the numbers they held at Drumpf's inauguration.

Maj · Post by **Maj** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:52 am

My sister has been notified that a coworker tested positive.

Josh_Kablack · Post by **Josh_Kablack** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:09 am

Britain is fucked in all projections:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/ ... ly-impact/

erik · Post by **erik** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:14 am

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Italy seems analogous to US with a 2 week lead.

My 2 year old nephew apparently is throwing up and has a fever I learned today. Probably just regular flu, but this is the Missouri side of the family and they've been spectacularly nonchalant about all this so far and I'm worried about them. The family is so big that statistically we are almost certain to be having COVID funerals this year (pretty sure my wife has about 50 first cousins, and those cousins have more than 50 kids). It took an hour phone call to convince my mother in law not to come visit us this week.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:34 am

Josh_Kablack wrote:Britain is fucked in all projections:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/ ... ly-impact/

Working in British healthcare I can confirm. This week we had to cancel a bunch of daycase surgeries to make empty beds... which just stayed empty because we haven't been hit by the surge yet.

Like, management genuinely doesn't seem to understand our argument that we should be doing more surgery this week because we will be able to do none of it in two weeks. And each level of the pyramid above that seems even more out of their depth, very much including the prime minister's office which is a very British rolling shambles.

erik wrote:Italy seems analogous to US with a 2 week lead.

The US is large enough that it's more like Europe as a whole. I suspect California will end up somewhere between France and Germany, while Florida is on the Italy train.

-Username17

MisterDee · Post by **MisterDee** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:30 am

Well, this is weird.

I've just been sent home (with full pay and benefits) by my employer. Technically I should be working from home but my job flat-out doesn't work that way so thank to the magic of strong unions and permanent positions, I'm supposed to "stay available" instead.

Given that my girlfriend still gets her full salary as long as she does her best to work from home, and that we don't have to pay for daycare/parking/public transportation/all the other small costs incurred by going to work, we're actually going to be making more money (and have more free time) for the duration of this crisis.

So yeah, there's a bit of guilt here. I know several persons who are going to get thoroughly screwed by this whole mess, and more than a few who're in for a rough if survivable ride.

ETortoise · Post by **ETortoise** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:35 am

What magical land do you hail from?

Also, as an early-childhood educator I wonder, are the daycare workers where you live getting screwed by the reduced demand?

MisterDee · Post by **MisterDee** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:55 am

The Frozen Wastes of Soviet Quebec.

And the daycare workers are actually on paid leave as well since they've closed all the daycare centers (except for those kept open to offer services to health care and other essential workers). The government actually runs the bigger part of our child-care network and they're going to be compensating the rest.

We have an extensive set of government services here (and the tax rates to pay for them). We're also benefiting from years of public finance clean-up both at the provincial and federal level. And like everybody else in the long run we'll suffer economic consequences from the pandemic.

(Or in the not-so-long run: there are measures being taken to help private sector workers and corporations but I fully expect a lot of job losses and bankruptcies.)

violence in the media · Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:57 am

So, my girlfriend is quarantined in New Zealand and is waiting for the test results to come back, but it appears likely that she has the virus.

Maj · Post by **Maj** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:10 pm

My mom is quarantined and they don't have any tests.

SlyJohnny · Post by **SlyJohnny** » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:04 pm

I'm still going to work, because I am a temp in a call centre, and I'd like to be able to continue to eat.

Thaluikhain · Post by **Thaluikhain** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:50 am

I'm a permanent in a call centre, and it's a government thing so we'll probably have to stay open with as many people as don't get sick.

Meikle641 · Post by **Meikle641** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:54 am

I'm sorta under quarantine, and I definitely have some form of virus but the province is basically only testing people with direct links to China and such. I've no idea what I've got, but it is frustrating.

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:48 am

I work two jobs, one delivering for a national chain, and one at a vape shop.

Delivery is considered essential, so I'll be working this weekend and for the foreseeable future. The vape shop... well, my boss tried to get us declared essential*, and today found some exception to the tune of "if shutting down would drive a small business out of business, they can remain open." And I picked up a shift yesterday on the back of an extremely busy ereyesterday due to all the people running in to stock up on vape juice.

So, for the time being, I'm still working. I'm considering coughing on anyone I deliver to that doesn't tip. Given that I already struggle to pay my bills, I'm still hoping on some cash assistance bill being passed, and a rent freeze. And strongly considering participating in a Rent Strike on April 1.

*His reasoning is that if the vape shops close, our customers will wind up going to gas stations, which are essential, to buy cigarettes. Given that vaping, while not necessarily healthy, is harm reduction, I can understand the logic, even if I don't necessarily agree with it

Korwin · Post by **Korwin** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:53 am

Home Office for me since Mondey afternoon.
And the company is applying for 'Kurzarbeit' (only work 25% of the normal time, get ~80% of money, company gets the difference back from the state).

Edit:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
According to this site, death in Italy via Corona are higher than in China at this point in time.

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:08 pm

I'm on day seven thousand and something of isolation. I fear I may have gone mad, but that was 20 years ago, not a result of current events. In reality I feel super lucky about a lot of my situation despite being unemployed.

A lot of the exchange students, including the one staying with us, are getting sent home early. Now, I'm pretty sure doctors specifically said not to load people onto giant flying cocktail shakers of bacteria, with 60% recycled air, and trap them there for hours at a stretch, but what do I know? The reasoning according to the agency is "there might not *be* any flights in 3-6 months time when you're normally meant to return home, and if there are, they'll probably be more expensive than we signed up for and we don't want to support you in a way that doesn't make a profit".

These problems could be managed by a sensible government taking measures such as "extending visas for the length of the crisis" and indeed "buying out and nationalising one of the airlines". But our government only just banned "loading into football stadiums and beaches" (waiting until after a big pentecostal "greed is good" mega-sermon run by the PM's favourite paedophile), they're not sensible, and they couldn't manage their way out of a paper bag. Hell, the Minister for Corruption who prides himself on STOPPING THE BOATS RAAAAA has let a cruise ship unload all its passengers into Sydney, with no checks or follow-ups.