Age of majority was raised to 17 in 2046. There is a typo somewhere, don't worry about it.
However, Talia's impassioned defense of the retarded is still retarded. While marines are indeed recruited as young adults, they sure as fuck aren't trained by young adults. A median age is never going to be extremely close to the maximum age, because that is not how demographics fucking work.
Remember: In the 2050s, there are slightly less than 50 million Elves in North America. The first cohort was born in 2011, and we are assured that the number of Elves born each year was higher than in the year before all the way to 2050. So the number of Elves born in 2011 isn't 1.2 million, it's sufficiently less than that that you can notice that that the percentage has grown 38 times. Indeed, in order to maintain a stable population of about 1/6th of the people in the 2050s, the percentage of live births that were Elves would have to be only modestly larger than that (remembering that adult mortality happens exclusively to the non-Elvish population until 2029).
Now Tir Tairngire is infinitely less retarded than Tir na nOg, because there is actually a block of Elves large enough to recruit enough child soldiers to do that. Unlike in Tir na nOg where there simply fucking isn't. But it's still absurd because you're talking about a society that has no doctors, no engineers, no lawyers, no military officers, and noone who even has a fucking master's degree. And it's even more absurd if you want to claim they were recruiting almost entirely from the 2011-2013 birth cohort. There just aren't enough Elves to do that.
-Username17
[OSSR]Shadowrun: Tir Tairngire and Tír na nÓg
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Username17
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Ancient History
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Talia Invierno
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*laugh* Nice to see you guys too.
Yup, you caught me in a typo. That should have been "17 in 2045", as per the page I referenced. (That would be p. 55, again in the original softcover version.) It came out as "2056" because the "6" is on the "wrong" side of my new split keyboard and so both numbers slipped one over. Congratulations! You all caught my mistake in transcribing what the book says.
Well, it looks as though I will be getting to some of those other points after all, if Frank permits. The whole issue about base population pool is just one of those points -- well, actually it consists of three distinct subpoints, each of which must be demonstrated independently if I want to do anything more than blow opinionated hot air. (For here and now, I will remind you of what I said earlier: the country that will become Tir Tairngire isn't just drawing from what used to be the good old US of A. The recruitment is definitely worldwide.) But all told, the whole thing gets a bit long, so tell me if you want it here or in a new thread.
In the meantime, to keep the immediate reply brief, you can't simply apply generic worldwide demographic patterns to obtain the median age of a sample population. Any non-random sampling tends to disrupt it.
You can't even assume the median age of a population is the same as the average of its extremes except in normal distribution ("normal" in the statistical (Gaussian) sense -- think bell curve). In fact, it usually isn't. Normal distribution doesn't apply to age demographics.
(That one's obvious, if you think about it. It happens because mortality continually cuts down on the population. While everyone who is alive has to be born, some don't survive to be 1 year old, more don't survive to be 2, and so on. Frank's assertion that the worldwide median age of elves in 2031 is 10(ish) could only be accurate -- maybe -- if the percentage of elves being born is increasing in direct proportion to the corresponding rate of elf mortality under the "hard cap" age of 20. That kind of population distribution is usually only found in very established, very stable countries, where the population pyramid looks almost like a vertical column. If elves are being born at an increasing rate while overall mortality is very low, the population pyramid of the elf sample looks a bit like a third world model -- but for completely different reasons.)
Nonetheless, if only for simplicity, I am willing to work with a worldwide median age of 10. (It actually works in Tir Tairngire's favour for building a new and stable society if the worldwide median age of elves is younger than that. Remember that elves take the long view?) Even with a younger median age, the existing elf population pool is more than adequate to pull the initial sample needed to populate, rebuild, and defend Tir Tairngire. The detailed proof of that comes in that longer version I mentioned.
For now, it is actually quite easy to find real-world examples where the median ages of non-random sample groups are not the same as the base population pool. There are even many real-world examples where the median ages of non-random sample groups are statistically identical with the maximum or minimum age of a particular population pool, or any particular chosen age for that matter.
Any immigrant population into an unsettled area automatically falls into the category of samples which don't fit a normal distribution pattern. I assume you have all studied the Mayflower Pilgrims? Take a look at the average ages and incomes of the Plymouth colony and then compare them with the average ages and incomes of the broader Nottingham population of 1621 (or 1607-8 if you prefer, before some of the Pilgrims left for Holland).
A very easy example of a non-random sample group where the median age is very close to a specific chosen number is any given public school classroom.
An example where the median age is very close to the minimum possible adult age (base population pool being male adults between 18 and 25) is Selective Service registration.
An example where the median age is very close to the maximum possible age (base population pool being adults who have not yet retired) is the set of people who have won the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. (Sorry for using the long form, but the economics prize is not technically a Nobel prize.)
I'll also toss in a couple of other, much younger, real-world examples for maximum possible age, because they have some relevance to Tir Tairngire. The first is the sample of Americans who enlisted underage for service during just about any 20th century war in which the U.S. was one of the combatants, where the base population pool is all underage Americans. The second is the sample of teens who are high school graduates, where the population pool is teenagers generally.
You will be able to find valid reasons why all of these non-random samples come out the way they do. That is exactly the point. There are also valid reasons why the median age of the Sinsearach elf immigrant population is going to be at least 16 and probably closer to a minimum 18.
Btw another key thing you have forgotten, Frank: one of the most important reasons immigrants come to a new land is to build a better life for their children. For Tir Tairngire, this would include human parents with elven children. A fair number of those human parents have skills too.
But, hey, it's your board. You get to decide what kind of analysis you'll tolerate. I'll post again only when you tell me where I should dump a rather long analysis of your "review". By all means, don't let me get in the way of a good full-out rant by introducing logic and facts! *grin*
Yup, you caught me in a typo. That should have been "17 in 2045", as per the page I referenced. (That would be p. 55, again in the original softcover version.) It came out as "2056" because the "6" is on the "wrong" side of my new split keyboard and so both numbers slipped one over. Congratulations! You all caught my mistake in transcribing what the book says.
Well, it looks as though I will be getting to some of those other points after all, if Frank permits. The whole issue about base population pool is just one of those points -- well, actually it consists of three distinct subpoints, each of which must be demonstrated independently if I want to do anything more than blow opinionated hot air. (For here and now, I will remind you of what I said earlier: the country that will become Tir Tairngire isn't just drawing from what used to be the good old US of A. The recruitment is definitely worldwide.) But all told, the whole thing gets a bit long, so tell me if you want it here or in a new thread.
In the meantime, to keep the immediate reply brief, you can't simply apply generic worldwide demographic patterns to obtain the median age of a sample population. Any non-random sampling tends to disrupt it.
You can't even assume the median age of a population is the same as the average of its extremes except in normal distribution ("normal" in the statistical (Gaussian) sense -- think bell curve). In fact, it usually isn't. Normal distribution doesn't apply to age demographics.
(That one's obvious, if you think about it. It happens because mortality continually cuts down on the population. While everyone who is alive has to be born, some don't survive to be 1 year old, more don't survive to be 2, and so on. Frank's assertion that the worldwide median age of elves in 2031 is 10(ish) could only be accurate -- maybe -- if the percentage of elves being born is increasing in direct proportion to the corresponding rate of elf mortality under the "hard cap" age of 20. That kind of population distribution is usually only found in very established, very stable countries, where the population pyramid looks almost like a vertical column. If elves are being born at an increasing rate while overall mortality is very low, the population pyramid of the elf sample looks a bit like a third world model -- but for completely different reasons.)
Nonetheless, if only for simplicity, I am willing to work with a worldwide median age of 10. (It actually works in Tir Tairngire's favour for building a new and stable society if the worldwide median age of elves is younger than that. Remember that elves take the long view?) Even with a younger median age, the existing elf population pool is more than adequate to pull the initial sample needed to populate, rebuild, and defend Tir Tairngire. The detailed proof of that comes in that longer version I mentioned.
For now, it is actually quite easy to find real-world examples where the median ages of non-random sample groups are not the same as the base population pool. There are even many real-world examples where the median ages of non-random sample groups are statistically identical with the maximum or minimum age of a particular population pool, or any particular chosen age for that matter.
Any immigrant population into an unsettled area automatically falls into the category of samples which don't fit a normal distribution pattern. I assume you have all studied the Mayflower Pilgrims? Take a look at the average ages and incomes of the Plymouth colony and then compare them with the average ages and incomes of the broader Nottingham population of 1621 (or 1607-8 if you prefer, before some of the Pilgrims left for Holland).
A very easy example of a non-random sample group where the median age is very close to a specific chosen number is any given public school classroom.
An example where the median age is very close to the minimum possible adult age (base population pool being male adults between 18 and 25) is Selective Service registration.
An example where the median age is very close to the maximum possible age (base population pool being adults who have not yet retired) is the set of people who have won the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. (Sorry for using the long form, but the economics prize is not technically a Nobel prize.)
I'll also toss in a couple of other, much younger, real-world examples for maximum possible age, because they have some relevance to Tir Tairngire. The first is the sample of Americans who enlisted underage for service during just about any 20th century war in which the U.S. was one of the combatants, where the base population pool is all underage Americans. The second is the sample of teens who are high school graduates, where the population pool is teenagers generally.
You will be able to find valid reasons why all of these non-random samples come out the way they do. That is exactly the point. There are also valid reasons why the median age of the Sinsearach elf immigrant population is going to be at least 16 and probably closer to a minimum 18.
Btw another key thing you have forgotten, Frank: one of the most important reasons immigrants come to a new land is to build a better life for their children. For Tir Tairngire, this would include human parents with elven children. A fair number of those human parents have skills too.
But, hey, it's your board. You get to decide what kind of analysis you'll tolerate. I'll post again only when you tell me where I should dump a rather long analysis of your "review". By all means, don't let me get in the way of a good full-out rant by introducing logic and facts! *grin*
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Username17
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Talia, first of all you can say whatever you want. It's not my board. If you want to be thought an idiot you can say things that are as dumb as you want and I can't stop you. And if i could stop you, I still wouldn't because freedom and shit.
Anyway, demonstrating that populations don't have to have even age distributions doesn't help you. At all. Remember that the whole spiel is that the number of Elf births rises every year between 2011 and 2050. In fact, while some sources claim that the first Elf birth was on January 13th, 2011, other sources say that no observable magic effects were recorded before December 24th, 2011. This means that the cohort of Elves born between January and December of 2011, far from being an even 1/39th of 1/6th of the population of the planet in 2050 was in fact so small that there are rational people who doubt that there even are any.
The entire Gaia Rising plotline posited that the population of Elves was a pyramid, with the biggest end being the youngest Elves. Your claim is that Tir Tairngire was formed with a pyramidal population where the biggest end was the oldest Elves. Do you not see how that's a problem? You're positing, with essentially no textual evidence at all, that Tir Tairngire's age demographics are the literal opposite of regional, national, and global Elf age demographics. What possible basis do you have for that claim?
-Username17
Anyway, demonstrating that populations don't have to have even age distributions doesn't help you. At all. Remember that the whole spiel is that the number of Elf births rises every year between 2011 and 2050. In fact, while some sources claim that the first Elf birth was on January 13th, 2011, other sources say that no observable magic effects were recorded before December 24th, 2011. This means that the cohort of Elves born between January and December of 2011, far from being an even 1/39th of 1/6th of the population of the planet in 2050 was in fact so small that there are rational people who doubt that there even are any.
The entire Gaia Rising plotline posited that the population of Elves was a pyramid, with the biggest end being the youngest Elves. Your claim is that Tir Tairngire was formed with a pyramidal population where the biggest end was the oldest Elves. Do you not see how that's a problem? You're positing, with essentially no textual evidence at all, that Tir Tairngire's age demographics are the literal opposite of regional, national, and global Elf age demographics. What possible basis do you have for that claim?
-Username17
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RadiantPhoenix
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I stuck some math on the numbers assuming that:
And here with 25% more elves each born year (something I think people might actually notice)
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- No elves die ever.
- Elves start being born in 2011.
- There are ~50 million elves in 2050.
- There are 5% more elves born each year (barely noticeable).
And here with 25% more elves each born year (something I think people might actually notice)
[img]data:image/png;base64,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[/img]
The number given in Shadows of North America, circa 2063, has about 35 millions elves north of the Aztlan border (formerly US+Canada). Even if you use the larger figures from Native American Nations volume 1 and 2 circa 2050 instead (you still have to use the number from SoNA for the UCAS and CAS), it only goes up to 45 millions.
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RadiantPhoenix
- Prince
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