Mechalich wrote:The case for the superdelegates overturning the pledged delegate result would probably rest on both a tiny margin and a discrepancy in the popular vote versus the delegate count. What happens if Clinton is down 5 pledged delegates to Sanders but has two million more total votes? That's a frightening scenario.
Considering how many pledged delegates that Sanders has gotten out of bullshit tiny caucuses (he has won all but 2 of the caucuses, which have the highest delegate to popular votes payoff by an order of magnitude), that would almost certainly be the case. If the pledged delegate counts are very close, Hillary will be ahead in popular votes by over a million,
and have the longtime loyalty of a lot of the unpledged delegates.
The only certainty is that if Hillary Clinton gets 2026 pledged delegates she wins outright and that if Bernie Sanders gets 2383 pledged delegates
he wins outright. If the results are between those numbers, it becomes a question, with "maybe Sanders?" going to "almost certainly Sanders" depending on how close to 2383 pledged delegates he gets.
The most likely result is still that Hillary gets more than 2026 pledged delegates and we move the fuck on with our lives. She only has to pick up 43% of the remaining delegates to get there and there are some big Hillary-leaning states left on the map. But if Sanders holds her to like 2024 or some fucking thing, it's a nightmare scenario and there's lots of confusion and bad blood
regardless of who wins in the end. It's why I'm actually getting pretty annoyed with the Sanders campaign. They are actually threatening to keep fighting even if Hillary gets to 2026, meaning that she would have won both the delegate count and the popular vote. That's just dickery. It's one thing to say that you want everyone's vote to count and you intend to hang on as long as you have a chance to win, it's quite another to threaten to tear the party apart and flip the board over if you lose.
I'm not at all convinced the Sanders campaign hasn't outlived its usefulness. They
aren't successfully agitating for down ballot candidates. They
aren't getting their supporters to work in all the other channels we need to fight in. In Wisconsin, 15% of Bernie Sanders voters either did not know who they voted for in the Wisconsin Supreme Court ballot, or voted for Scott Walker's evil homophobic puppet. On the Hillary side, that number was only 4%. The end result
was close enough that if Sanders supporters had voted correctly at the rate that Clinton supporters did, the progressive candidate might have won. Bernie's campaign is simply failing to direct their supporters to doing things they actually need to do to fight the overt fascism that the other party is flirting with. The stakes are simply too high to blow off downballot elections and the judiciary.
-Username17