Election 2016

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:05 pm

You mean she's running so that she'll get the VP slot post primary the way that Trump's running for the money?

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Thu Sep 17, 2015 11:32 pm

Pretty much. Offering Fiorina the VP slot is the easiest way to get her delegates after the first vote at the primary, and she's smart enough to avoid being Sarah Palin 2.0.

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 12:04 am

I just want to put out right now that if the post primary ticket is Trump/Fiorina we call it the hatefuck ticket.

Maj · Post by **Maj** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:03 am

Fiorina is confusing with her don't-change-the-$10-because-women-aren't-a-special-interest-group. She's right in that women shouldn't be [considered] a special interest group because we make up half of the voting population. But that's exactly why we should change the $10 bill.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:51 am

As far as that goes, obviously we should put a woman on the twenty dollar bill and keep Hamilton on the ten. Hamilton is on money for having laid the groundwork for the American Dollar, Jackson is on money for betraying and murdering a bunch of Indians in order to take their gold mines. The first is a reasonable thing to celebrate, especially with money. The second is like putting Hitler on the Euro. In any case, the fact that neither Jeb! nor Carly could name a woman from American history was really weird.

Carly's shtick was that she carved up pieces of her regular stump speech and fed it out as if it was answers to questions. That was effective because she hadn't been allowed onto the big people stage before and most of the audience was unfamiliar with her power point presentations. She can't do that a second time because she will sound incredibly stale. Basically she's pulling a Herman Cain or a Michele "Crazy Eyes" Bachmann from 2012. She's grabbing some publicity and getting a (still early) spike in the polls. I assume that since she's running for VP, that her plan is to bow out of the race when she still has a noticeable chunk of support from being a fading flavor of the month, and endorse some front runner in an effort to get them to agree to let her be the VP nominee.

Not a terrible plan, and one that means we have to pretend she matters in a way we no longer do about Mike Huckabee.

-Username17

Kaelik · Post by **Kaelik** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:42 am

I agree that Jackson should be offed money and Hamilton shouldn't. The main reason they are doing the ten is because they have to redo the ten anyway right about now for the usual security update.

So whenever the next security update for the 20 comes around, it should damn well be a different woman and/or Hamilton. Because Fuck Jackson.

RobbyPants · Post by **RobbyPants** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:03 pm

FrankTrollman wrote:Polls of people just after the debate showed about half of people giving the win to Trump and a quarter giving the win to Carly Fiorina. All other candidates fight over the scraps, so they all clearly lost. Given the stark choice to declare either Trump or Fiorina the winner, the media has universally tripped over their own dicks in the rush to declare Carly Fiorina the winner of the second debate.

-Username17

Remembering the 2012 election, I can't help but wonder if Carson's and Fiorina's current success is going to be like the one week of fame everyone that wasn't Romney got in 2012. Cain, Bachman, and Perry all shot up in the polls and got good media coverage for about a week, before their campaigns collapsed. Santorum and Gingrich had similar rises, although their's lasted longer, and they both refused to drop out long after they'd lost steam.

Of course, two to three months ago, I would have assumed Jeb! would be the presumptive front runner, just like Romney was. I figured people would eventually flock to him as others dropped out. I was not expecting Trump to hold a lead ever, let alone for several months. 17 candidates does weird things to the math.

Maj · Post by **Maj** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:37 pm

Kaelik wrote:I agree that Jackson should be offed money and Hamilton shouldn't. The main reason they are doing the ten is because they have to redo the ten anyway right about now for the usual security update.

So whenever the next security update for the 20 comes around, it should damn well be a different woman and/or Hamilton. Because Fuck Jackson.

I'm totally with you guys. Jackson really should go.

hyzmarca · Post by **hyzmarca** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:59 pm

FrankTrollman wrote:The second is like putting Hitler on the Euro.

Well, Hitler is pretty much responsible for the EU, albeit indirectly. He indelibly shaped the geopolitical landscape of the latter 20th century. He's directly responsible for nationalism and fascism falling out of favor. Without him European politics would look much, much different and the EU wouldn't exist. .

Schleiermacher · Post by **Schleiermacher** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:53 pm

Yes. And he was a terrible person whose accomplishments we do not want to celebrate in any way. The analogy to Jackson is clear.

Maj · Post by **Maj** » Fri Sep 18, 2015 11:55 pm

House move through bill to defund Planned Parenthood if they don't stop performing abortions

Kim Davis back in jail for altering marriage licenses against the judge's orders

Rand Paul aide claims Rubio aide punched him in the face in a bar in Michigan

Was their strategy to start the primary season so early in order to show the world their crazy? Because it's working.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Sat Sep 19, 2015 12:04 am

http://www.brobible.com/life/article/ic ... -debate/3/

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Sat Sep 19, 2015 10:53 pm

If you haven't read Ancient History's link and you're interested in American politics at all, you really should. That shit is hilarious.

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Sat Sep 19, 2015 11:18 pm

It really is. I now wish I'd watched the debate and Bernie Sanders and Ice-T livetweeting it.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:13 pm

And another one bites the dust, as Scott Walker drops out:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/21/politics/ ... an-donors/

angelfromanotherpin · Post by **angelfromanotherpin** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:25 pm

And then there were... motherfucking fifteen? Still?

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 8:42 pm

Barring late entries, ja, which I hope we're past. I wouldn't be surprised to see one candidate drop out every week, their donors and volunteers and staff getting shuffled around and absorbed by the other campaigns. But soon enough it'll just be a question of money rather than poll numbers - Huckabee will likely stay in it as long as there's funding to make a show of it.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Tue Sep 22, 2015 11:18 pm

Also, Jeb - still in the race, since he at least has name advantage, which might have been enough eight years ago - bares his eager, well-used asshole to big business by claiming what we need is less regulation.

http://www.aei.org/publication/hey-anti ... g-for-you/

Aside from showing that he has learned nothing from the Great Recession, this isn't enough to save Bush's campaign - Kasich in particular is also pushing deregulation, and I'm sure if you asked any of the candidates point-blank most of them would nod their heads along with.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Sat Sep 26, 2015 3:32 pm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post ... ree-stuff/

While it's far from a by-gone conclusion that Jeb! will be anointed to take up the struggle against the Democrats, saying shit like this is not going to help him in the general election.

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:20 am

Carson's whole "Muslims can't be president and I'm not sold on them being congressmen either" thing has gotten me thinking about running for president out of spite so that fundamentalist conservatives can suck on satanic cock and shut the fuck up with their islamophobic bullshit.

But that idea/fantasy makes me realize that I don't even know how one goes about running. I mean, obviously, if you have more money than god then you just crow about how you should be president and everything will be amazing and you don't even have to do your paperwork correctly, but other than "be 35" what else would I have to do to actually throw my pointy black hat into the ring?

And beyond that, what's a realistic 9 year route to having an actual chance?

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:55 am

Step-by-Step Guide

The short version is, you just need to register with the Federal Election Commission and work to get your name on the ballots of every state - which is trickier than it sounds, because different states have different requirements. But overall, that's the super-simple requirements.

The tricky bit comes from parties - and unless you're a Ross Perot-level billionaire or a Teddy Roosevelt-level established politician who can found their own party, you're going to want to be nominated by one of the Big Two. This gives you a built-in voter base, easy access to fundraising, support from established politicians, etc. All of which you probably need if you're going to have a serious chance at running for the presidency.

And that's a good and bad thing. The bad thing is, the entry barrier is relatively low and the groups you're catering to that control nomination at the state-level are bullshit small, so you can seriously wow them by throwing red meat to the crowd like appealing to Islamophobia in Iowa. It's why the Republican nomination is such a fucking clown car.

The Democrats aren't much better in this regard; there's nothing to stop them from having 15 nominees either - except that the base is a little more sane. The USA is generally center-right on a lot of issues, and Democrats in particular aren't very "left" by international standards, no matter what the GOP paints them all as Socialists that take their marching orders from Stalin and Marx. So you can go about as far left as Bernie Sanders and be a respectable candidate, but you'll notice that few people think Bernie can win, because he actually wants to put a lot of his policies into practice and doesn't except large donations from corporations and lobbyists and crap.

That's important because once - if - you get the party's nomination, the real process of campaigning begins...and that's expensive. Presidential election organizations are massive endeavors, soliciting donations and votes, creating and airing commercials and ads on all available media, organizing the candidate's schedule so they can meet with as many people as possible, planning strategies and evaluating poll data for different states, wringing endorsements from candidates and celebrities...all that takes money, even with vast amounts of volunteer work. The best campaigns are well-organized as well as well-funded, with coherent plans of action.

The really good ones are amazingly economical, and remind you of professional musicians like Bon Jovi, who has a crew that can keep the tour moving smoothly...and that's important! You don't want to rent a convention center for an extra day because you didn't pack up smoothly the night before; that's another $10k you could have spent on radio ads. You don't want to spend the extra three hours flying commercial when you could take your private jet and meet the president of <insert_large_local_organization_here>. If the president's brother gets caught with a hooker, your campaign should be there with the bail money and quietly keeping the media out, or better yet make sure security keeps him away from Ashley Madison and on the discreet pre-approved escort service list. The candidate doesn't even plan all that crap, or they shouldn't; that's what campaign managers and chiefs of staff are for. The candidate's big job is normally to look presidential at all times.

And of course today, there's a big online component...which it's still not clear if the GOP have embraced. I mean, they were seriously behind in 2012 when Romney's organization was trying to gear up against Obama's re-election monster, and the Obama campaign made a sincere effort through social media to get young people to go out to vote.

At this point, you might have cottoned to the fact that all this seems rather businesslike, and that there might be perpetual national-level election machines that are mercenary-like and are hired to the highest bidder...not quite. The four-year downseason is a bit killer. But there are lobbyist groups and ad agencies and things that rather specialize in campaigns, just as there are campaign managers and the like who make politicking for candidates to get elected their profession of choice - which is why, as the GOP candidates fall out one by one, you see the surviving campaigns fighting over their key personnel. A good exploratory committee in the pre-declaration-for-president phase should identify and, if possible, headhunt the best people to be part of your organization.

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:16 am

Well that's a bit disheartening, but neat. Is there a kind of optimal 9 year path from "unemployed college student" to "quasi-viable presidential hopeful?"

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Sun Sep 27, 2015 6:14 am

Prak wrote:Well that's a bit disheartening, but neat. Is there a kind of optimal 9 year path from "unemployed college student" to "quasi-viable presidential hopeful?"

Fundraising. In the meantime, getting a public presence. Blog a lot, write editorials, make youtube videos, whatever. Do it in a way to stir shit up and get recognition going.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Sun Sep 27, 2015 9:33 am

Well, there's the Teddy Roosevelt/FDR method, where you basically start out by getting your feet wet as a low-level elected official, move from there to a higher elected office, springboard from there to Secretary of the Navy or some other powerful non-elected gig, and then pivot from that to the presidency, making friends and influencing people all the way.

Except, that's not quite how it works for everybody else - you'll notice a lot of the would-be-nominees for the GOP are governors and House reps, and Hillary was Secretary of State and Governor of New York. So position alone won't get you the gig, just like money alone won't get you the gig. You'll notice a lot of politics at the highest level is dominated by old people; it can be hard for youngsters to break in. But yeah, the general path you'd be looking at is starting out fairly small with a local elected office, join a lot of organizations, meet the right people, and gradually claw your way to higher office.

erik · Post by **erik** » Sun Sep 27, 2015 12:39 pm

Senator of NY not guvnor. Also First Lady of US and Arkansas. And previous primary front runner.

I wouldn't say you have zero chance at being elected prak, but the only way I see it happening is with a mega lottery win for the instant celebrity and funds. So would put your odds on that scale, maybe a bit worse. If you wanted to make waves and change i would consider realistic paths that don't require the highest office in the land.

But to return to fantasy some people can seize the day like Carson. He had a pocket of medical and authorial celebrity which got him speaking gigs and was political at a White House engagement which got him extra looks. Basically he was good at building his brand as a Christian neurosurgeon and snowballed his celebrity. Hell even I read a book by him a dozen or more years ago and I wasn't near his target demo. People thought he seemed electable and decided his lack of policy knowledge and experience didn't matter and wanted to draft him. In this field he could've been a contender if he wasn't a twit and had good political instincts and an awesome campaign manager. But he is a twit who will never be a serious contender.

[edit: blah, removed ramble about anecdotal experience that surgeons would make terrible heads of state]