So now, even if we have all the sales data to conclusively show that 4e sold like garbage, you still will refuse to believe that it sold like garbage, because we won't have the stats on who plays the game? How the fuck does that even make sense in your twisted bullshit world?CaptPike wrote:again SHOW ME THE DATA ON WHO PLAYS 4E, without that we are just guessing.
D&D 4E Sales Figures Debate
Moderator: Moderators
The U.S. isn't a democracy and if you think it is, you are a rube.DSMatticus wrote:Kaelik gonna kaelik. Whatcha gonna do?
That's libertarians for you - anarchists who want police protection from their slaves.
No, we have data. The RollD20-data, the ICv2-data, the Wizard-Marketing and Wizard-Sales... And yes, the amazon-bestsellerlist.CaptPike wrote:I am sorry you are right, by my own logic amazon would not be enough data, I have a feeling it would be a better indicator then online gaming but that is all it is.
so we are back to the problem of having no data to go off of.
What you've done is called "reasonable doubt". It means that you reject a story if there is a possible (not likely, just possible) story that could also have happened. And if that sounds like the worst possible defence strategy ... well, it is. It's the thing you do before throwing up your hands and admitting guilt. Shit, it's so weak, most of the times admitting guilt and hoping for honesty points is better than using reasonable doubt. Because if you hated the victim, and your DNA was found at the crime scene, and you were found with the murder-weapon, and you bragged about killing someone to your friends, and you are a convicted fellon, and you have no alibi, and someone saw you leaving the crime scene, than yes, that does not technically prove that you did it. And you're still going to prison.
Frank, in the thread I had to chop up to make this one wrote: Captain Pike: you are sounding suspiciously like Titanium Dragon. Check out Hundred of Thousands of reasons for why we are skeptical to the point of open mockery of people who follow that particular line of denialism. If you can't accept the evidence that 4e did not sell well, you are living in a bubble of denial. There is literally no evidence at all that 4e wasn't a colossal failure. It was unpopular and unprofitable to the point that the DMG3 got canceled in favor of restarting the line with Essentials, and the Class Compendium got canceled in favor of bringing out absolutely fucking nothing for three fucking years. If you can look at that and call that an "objective success" with a straight face, you are delusional. The end.
Captain Pike, in the other thread fbmf had to chop up to get us here wrote: sure show me the data that shows that 4e was hated and I will admit it. but you are not, and I have yet to meet someone who will for the same reason I have yet to meet someone who can prove the earth is the center of the universe.
4e was widly popular by any and all data I have seen. that is what I use to form views on things, DATA not what I heard around the comic shop.
after all if I say that everyone I know hates 3e, that its really easy to just throw random powers together in classes that are vastly more and less powerful then each other and that 3e was a waste of paper then are you going to change your mind? do you suddenly think that 3e failed?
If it sold so well, why did the Essentials line die, why did they abandon their product release schedule, why was it an unofficial dead edition by 2011 and why was 5E announced in 2012?
What is the answer to that? It was selling so well that they decided to stop putting out books for it and declare it an officially dead edition in under 5 years?
What is the answer to that? It was selling so well that they decided to stop putting out books for it and declare it an officially dead edition in under 5 years?
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CapnTthePirateG
- Duke
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- Joined: Fri Jul 17, 2009 2:07 am
Another question: If 4e did so great why isn't 5e a revised 4e with less HP all around but more roles. builds, and online tools rather than a desperate attempt to feel like old school D&D and doing the opposite of everything 4e did?
OgreBattle wrote:"And thus the denizens learned that hating Shadzar was the only thing they had in common, and with him gone they turned their venom upon each other"
-Sarpadian Empires, vol. I
Asking Pike questions is a fools game. He said this is about data, the data has all been compiled in one thread and he has been asked to show his. If he doesn't do that then any further conversation is a waste of everyone's time. If he says anything that isn't presenting data now he is a troll.
He asked to be presented research, he has been, he has been asked to present research, he has not yet. Until that is no longer the state of affairs any defense he makes is masturbatory and an exercise in intellectual dishonesty.
He asked to be presented research, he has been, he has been asked to present research, he has not yet. Until that is no longer the state of affairs any defense he makes is masturbatory and an exercise in intellectual dishonesty.
DSMatticus wrote:Fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you. I am filled with an unfathomable hatred.
It's not really that unusual for a business to respond to a big failure by trying to revert to their last major success. It makes sense for the next product to be more like something that made money than something that didn't. Of course, that only works if the similarities are in the stuff that made money.Insomniac wrote:Even if 4E wasn't a commercial success, you'd think the next edition would hew closer to 4E rather than be almost entirely different than it and be a total retreat to "3.5 with really funky houserules."
DSMatticus wrote:It's not just that everything you say is stupid, but that they are Gordian knots of stupid that leave me completely bewildered as to where to even begin. After hearing you speak Alexander the Great would stab you and triumphantly declare the puzzle solved.
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Josh_Kablack
- King
- Posts: 5318
- Joined: Fri Mar 07, 2008 7:54 pm
- Location: Online. duh
This thread does a great job removing benefit of the doubt.
"But transportation issues are social-justice issues. The toll of bad transit policies and worse infrastructure—trains and buses that don’t run well and badly serve low-income neighborhoods, vehicular traffic that pollutes the environment and endangers the lives of cyclists and pedestrians—is borne disproportionately by black and brown communities."
We have concrete data on 4e.
It was released in 2008, and in the 2009 court documents over the PDF pirating, we got numbers. Numbers that are legally binding, have specific legal meaning and must be able to be shown to be fact.
We know that in a year, 4e sold less than 1 million TOTAL books. That includes all 4e books that were out at the time. Their total player base was 6 million players. At the very best they sold to less than 1/6th of their player base. The court documents state 'hundreds of thousands' which is a legally binding statement meaning above 200,000 and less than 1,000,000.
A print run tops out at about 200,000 books. As 4e was on it's 3rd printing at that time, it actual books sold tops out at ~600,000. However since they didn't sell everything (you can still find 1st printings of 4e on store shelves TODAY), that means that they sold less than 600,000, or only 1/10th of their player base picked up the new edition in the best possible circumstances a year into the game's life.
We also know that the second printing of the 4e stuff was done before the game was even released due to Sell-in sales, and that the initial 4e print run was 50% higher than the initial 3.5 print run. This is a fact and was stated by WotC. That information points out that the print runs for 4e were not the largest possible, so we know that they didn't print even 600,000 books, which makes their numbers even worse. The fact that their initial print run was so small that they had to print a second one before the game even shipped points to very low print runs.
There is no reasonable way to conclude that 4e went on to be a success in anything more than it probably didn't lose WotC money, though I'd suspect that was more due to DDI than sales of 4e books. There is no evidence that points to 4e actually being a resounding success, and a great deal of evidence that points to the contrary.
It was released in 2008, and in the 2009 court documents over the PDF pirating, we got numbers. Numbers that are legally binding, have specific legal meaning and must be able to be shown to be fact.
We know that in a year, 4e sold less than 1 million TOTAL books. That includes all 4e books that were out at the time. Their total player base was 6 million players. At the very best they sold to less than 1/6th of their player base. The court documents state 'hundreds of thousands' which is a legally binding statement meaning above 200,000 and less than 1,000,000.
A print run tops out at about 200,000 books. As 4e was on it's 3rd printing at that time, it actual books sold tops out at ~600,000. However since they didn't sell everything (you can still find 1st printings of 4e on store shelves TODAY), that means that they sold less than 600,000, or only 1/10th of their player base picked up the new edition in the best possible circumstances a year into the game's life.
We also know that the second printing of the 4e stuff was done before the game was even released due to Sell-in sales, and that the initial 4e print run was 50% higher than the initial 3.5 print run. This is a fact and was stated by WotC. That information points out that the print runs for 4e were not the largest possible, so we know that they didn't print even 600,000 books, which makes their numbers even worse. The fact that their initial print run was so small that they had to print a second one before the game even shipped points to very low print runs.
There is no reasonable way to conclude that 4e went on to be a success in anything more than it probably didn't lose WotC money, though I'd suspect that was more due to DDI than sales of 4e books. There is no evidence that points to 4e actually being a resounding success, and a great deal of evidence that points to the contrary.
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Sakuya Izayoi
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Not every player has a PHB, but you need that and a MM to play at all, and most groups would have a DMG, so there can't have been more than 200k groups even try the game, or about a million people by their 5 PC norm.
That's still terrible, and sales could include into retail chains rather than to actual end-users: it need not be that high. They did announce in court that some of their splats had only sold 10k copies, and that shit isn't even close to paying for itself at a company like WotC/DnD in '09.
It's very clear that no matter how many people tried it, and a lot must have at things like the weekly gamestore events, it never translated into book sales for them, particularly with the supplements. The only rational reason they'd have cancelled most of essentials before it even hit the shelves would be because game stores were refusing to order it, because they still hadn't shifted their load of suddenly obsolete 4e core books yet.
That's still terrible, and sales could include into retail chains rather than to actual end-users: it need not be that high. They did announce in court that some of their splats had only sold 10k copies, and that shit isn't even close to paying for itself at a company like WotC/DnD in '09.
It's very clear that no matter how many people tried it, and a lot must have at things like the weekly gamestore events, it never translated into book sales for them, particularly with the supplements. The only rational reason they'd have cancelled most of essentials before it even hit the shelves would be because game stores were refusing to order it, because they still hadn't shifted their load of suddenly obsolete 4e core books yet.
PC, SJW, anti-fascist, not being a dick, or working on it, he/him.
Koumei wrote:I'm just glad that Jill Stein stayed true to her homeopathic principles by trying to win with .2% of the vote. She just hasn't diluted it enough!
Koumei wrote:I am disappointed in Santorum: he should carry his dead election campaign to term!
Just a heads up... Your post is pregnant... When you miss that many periods it's just a given.
]I want him to tongue-punch my box.
The divine in me says the divine in you should go fuck itself.
I'm sorry, I'm still stuck on the earth is round comment.
Like, you understand that the reason we don't post proof that the earth is round is because someone posted proof hundreds of years ago that the earth is round, and anyone who asks to be shown proof today that the earth is, in fact, round, can show them that proof as well as all the other evidence corroborating that fact that humanity has amassed incidentally over the intervening timespan. Because that shit is fucking documented and recorded.
People here have done just that to you, by the way. When you demanded proof that 4e fucking bombed, it was given. Your best argument in return isn't even "I have proof that 4e didn't bomb", it's "I DON'T have proof 4e did bomb." And that's sad.
Like, you understand that the reason we don't post proof that the earth is round is because someone posted proof hundreds of years ago that the earth is round, and anyone who asks to be shown proof today that the earth is, in fact, round, can show them that proof as well as all the other evidence corroborating that fact that humanity has amassed incidentally over the intervening timespan. Because that shit is fucking documented and recorded.
People here have done just that to you, by the way. When you demanded proof that 4e fucking bombed, it was given. Your best argument in return isn't even "I have proof that 4e didn't bomb", it's "I DON'T have proof 4e did bomb." And that's sad.
The court case is damning. Never read it, just heard about it.
The claim that 6 million people played Dungeons and Dragons could easily be prior edition and 3.0/3.5 players. That 6 million has very little to do with 4E players.
"22. In its first week on sale, Player’s Handbook 2 reached #28 of the USA Today Bestseller List, for all genres, and #4 of the Wall Street Journal Nonfiction Best-sellers List. As of April 1, 2009, Player’s Handbook 2 had already sold out of its initial print run."
Very few people realize how just how little a book has to sell to be on best seller list. Being number 1 at Amazon, for instance, amounts to as little as 300 to 400 books a day.
http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-t ... eller.html
For the USA Today List, being #28 seems lame and is lame.
Selling out the initial print run, if the supplement got 1/10th the printing that the core books got, that is something like 20,000 books. Out of a Dungeons and Dragons potential playerbase alone that WOTC claims is 6 million, that seems pretty weaksauce.
32, On or about March 19,2009, Wizards discovered an unauthorized electronic copy of Player’s Handbook 2 uploaded to the document-sharing website Scribd, on the Scribd webpage of Defendant Nolan. The uploaded copy allowed Scribd users to view and download Player’s Handbook 2 for free.
33. Wizards promptly notified Scribd and asked that the unauthorized copy be removed. Scribd complied. However, by the time Scribd removed the unauthorized copy of Player’s Handbook 2 from Defendant Nolan’s Scribd page, approximately 1,010 copies had been downloaded and 1,604 copies had been viewed. Upon information and belief, Wizards believes that unauthorized copies were downloaded and/or viewed by individuals in every, or nearly every, state of the United States of America.
1000 instances of piracy in 2 days?
The claim that 6 million people played Dungeons and Dragons could easily be prior edition and 3.0/3.5 players. That 6 million has very little to do with 4E players.
"22. In its first week on sale, Player’s Handbook 2 reached #28 of the USA Today Bestseller List, for all genres, and #4 of the Wall Street Journal Nonfiction Best-sellers List. As of April 1, 2009, Player’s Handbook 2 had already sold out of its initial print run."
Very few people realize how just how little a book has to sell to be on best seller list. Being number 1 at Amazon, for instance, amounts to as little as 300 to 400 books a day.
http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-t ... eller.html
For the USA Today List, being #28 seems lame and is lame.
Selling out the initial print run, if the supplement got 1/10th the printing that the core books got, that is something like 20,000 books. Out of a Dungeons and Dragons potential playerbase alone that WOTC claims is 6 million, that seems pretty weaksauce.
32, On or about March 19,2009, Wizards discovered an unauthorized electronic copy of Player’s Handbook 2 uploaded to the document-sharing website Scribd, on the Scribd webpage of Defendant Nolan. The uploaded copy allowed Scribd users to view and download Player’s Handbook 2 for free.
33. Wizards promptly notified Scribd and asked that the unauthorized copy be removed. Scribd complied. However, by the time Scribd removed the unauthorized copy of Player’s Handbook 2 from Defendant Nolan’s Scribd page, approximately 1,010 copies had been downloaded and 1,604 copies had been viewed. Upon information and belief, Wizards believes that unauthorized copies were downloaded and/or viewed by individuals in every, or nearly every, state of the United States of America.
1000 instances of piracy in 2 days?
without the DDI data all the other data is worthless. that might be 3/4 of the money from 4e, it might be 1/10 we have no way to know.Previn wrote:We have concrete data on 4e.
It was released in 2008, and in the 2009 court documents over the PDF pirating, we got numbers. Numbers that are legally binding, have specific legal meaning and must be able to be shown to be fact.
We know that in a year, 4e sold less than 1 million TOTAL books. That includes all 4e books that were out at the time. Their total player base was 6 million players. At the very best they sold to less than 1/6th of their player base. The court documents state 'hundreds of thousands' which is a legally binding statement meaning above 200,000 and less than 1,000,000.
A print run tops out at about 200,000 books. As 4e was on it's 3rd printing at that time, it actual books sold tops out at ~600,000. However since they didn't sell everything (you can still find 1st printings of 4e on store shelves TODAY), that means that they sold less than 600,000, or only 1/10th of their player base picked up the new edition in the best possible circumstances a year into the game's life.
We also know that the second printing of the 4e stuff was done before the game was even released due to Sell-in sales, and that the initial 4e print run was 50% higher than the initial 3.5 print run. This is a fact and was stated by WotC. That information points out that the print runs for 4e were not the largest possible, so we know that they didn't print even 600,000 books, which makes their numbers even worse. The fact that their initial print run was so small that they had to print a second one before the game even shipped points to very low print runs.
There is no reasonable way to conclude that 4e went on to be a success in anything more than it probably didn't lose WotC money, though I'd suspect that was more due to DDI than sales of 4e books. There is no evidence that points to 4e actually being a resounding success, and a great deal of evidence that points to the contrary.
and of course if you wanted to compare it to pathfinder you would need their data as well, and that data would have to be as trusted as the court docs.
so what is your point? we STILL do not have enough data.
Um, CaptPke you haven't show any data at all. Also I don't think you even read the links that I posted.
Koumei wrote:I'm just glad that Jill Stein stayed true to her homeopathic principles by trying to win with .2% of the vote. She just hasn't diluted it enough!
Koumei wrote:I am disappointed in Santorum: he should carry his dead election campaign to term!
Just a heads up... Your post is pregnant... When you miss that many periods it's just a given.
]I want him to tongue-punch my box.
The divine in me says the divine in you should go fuck itself.
I am wise enough to know the data is not out there (where we can get at it anyway) to prove one way or the other. I THINK 4e was a wild success, but I lack the data to prove that just as you lack the proof to disprove it.Leress wrote:Um, CaptPke you haven't show any data at all. Also I don't think you even read the links that I posted.
why would I need to? you told me it was court docs that show how many books 4e sold for a period of time. I believe you, I also know that DDI would be needed to have enough to matter.
and of course to get persective you would need pathfinder data, so...short of you showing up with both those data sets I fail to see what good your links are.
it would be like you only had the sales data for 4e from monday-thursday and nothing else. that would not be enough, I would need more nor would I need to look at it to know this.
Essentials went against the grain of 4e, it failed because if you loved 4e for what it was you did not like Essentials.Insomniac wrote:If it sold so well, why did the Essentials line die, why did they abandon their product release schedule, why was it an unofficial dead edition by 2011 and why was 5E announced in 2012?
What is the answer to that? It was selling so well that they decided to stop putting out books for it and declare it an officially dead edition in under 5 years?
it was made to sell the game to people who did not like it, and that went about as well as you think it would. At the same time it soured the waters for those of us who DID like 4e for what it was.
and again, why do people assume companies only take perfect actions? they canceled 4e yes, that could be becuase 4e was doing badly and was not making money, it could be because it was doing more then good enough, but they had unrealistic goals for D&D, it could be because they wanted the short term gain of a new edition, it could be because they were stupid, it could be because the person who made the decision though it would look better for him to do it.
the fact they canceled 4e only means that at least one person in Wotc thought it was a good idea, either for them or for Wotc, nothing more nothing less.
because the people in charge do not know what they are doing? your acting like they are perfect or something, they are not.CapnTthePirateG wrote:Another question: If 4e did so great why isn't 5e a revised 4e with less HP all around but more roles. builds, and online tools rather than a desperate attempt to feel like old school D&D and doing the opposite of everything 4e did?
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and again, I know it is tempting to use what data you have to form a conclusion even if you know you do not have enough, but it is a fools game. it is much better to just admit you can not form a informed conclusion then to randomly guess using "data" that tells you nothing.
were books the only way 4e could make money you would be right but without DDI info we do not enough know how much data we are missing.Kaelik wrote:Hey guys, we only know how many books 4e sold, and that it sold less than Pathfinder, but there is one store somewhere that sold some pathfinder books, but no 4e books, and we don't know how many books that one store sold, so we just don't have enough data, and maybe 4e is the GREATEST EDITION OF ALL TIME.CaptPike wrote:I am sorry you are right, by my own logic amazon would not be enough data, I have a feeling it would be a better indicator then online gaming but that is all it is.
so we are back to the problem of having no data to go off of.
and of course because you have to normalize for the market you have to compair 4e to something being sold when it was being sold. so we need pathfinder data. ALL of it, not just book sales.
so....you have all that right? surely you would not just be pointing to a fraction of a fraction of the data and saying it is enough?
yes you data, but not enough.sandmann wrote:No, we have data. The RollD20-data, the ICv2-data, the Wizard-Marketing and Wizard-Sales... And yes, the amazon-bestsellerlist.CaptPike wrote:I am sorry you are right, by my own logic amazon would not be enough data, I have a feeling it would be a better indicator then online gaming but that is all it is.
so we are back to the problem of having no data to go off of.
What you've done is called "reasonable doubt". It means that you reject a story if there is a possible (not likely, just possible) story that could also have happened.
and yes there is doubt, if I was 51% sure that the data we have is enough that would not be enough. but we have so little idea about how big DDI was, and how much pathfinder sold that we can not even guess as to what we are missing.
also the bolded is not data, it is nothing more then what a few people said, people who could have made a mistake, could have a good reason to lie.
what is it about large companies that makes everyone trust them implicitly? if you met a random guy on the street and he told you that 4e sold twice as much as 3e would you trust him?
EDIT: not a big deal but the amazon list points to 4e being ahead of pathfinder, not the reverse.
ICv2-data and the amazon list points to 4e being ahead until they started publishing essentials
RollD20-data does not help because I would need to know how that corresponded to non-online games,
Last edited by CaptPike on Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:47 am, edited 6 times in total.
How do you know Essentials failed?CaptPike wrote:Essentials went against the grain of 4e, it failed because if you loved 4e for what it was you did not like Essentials.
Come see Sprockets & Serials
How do you confuse a barbarian?
Put a greatsword a maul and a greataxe in a room and ask them to take their pick
How do you confuse a barbarian?
Put a greatsword a maul and a greataxe in a room and ask them to take their pick
EXPLOSIVE RUNES!
admittedly true, I do not know but it make sense.virgil wrote:How do you know Essentials failed?CaptPike wrote:Essentials went against the grain of 4e, it failed because if you loved 4e for what it was you did not like Essentials.
it did almost certainly LOOK like it failed to those in charge, that is about all we can know.
Last edited by CaptPike on Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
doublepost
Last edited by virgil on Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Come see Sprockets & Serials
How do you confuse a barbarian?
Put a greatsword a maul and a greataxe in a room and ask them to take their pick
How do you confuse a barbarian?
Put a greatsword a maul and a greataxe in a room and ask them to take their pick
EXPLOSIVE RUNES!