What has been interesting in the news lately is a combination of younger voters being skeptical of voting for Biden, but an increasing share of older voters appearing to support Biden.
From PoliticoThe polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right?
NPR has an article that also investigates recent polling: Key voting groups are shifting in the race between Biden and TrumpIt’s a significant reversal from recent history: President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones.
In the four years since Biden took office, according to the NPR poll, white men with degrees have shifted another 24 points in Biden's favor, and he's gained another 19 with white women with degrees. It's a trend that Miringoff said he is seeing in the surveys Marist has conducted in various states as well.
FiveThirtyEight recently launched their Swing-O-Matic that lets you investigate what changes to the electorate by subcategory and turnout. If seniors swung toward Biden by +10 points, but younger voters swung toward Trump by +20 points but nothing else changed, Biden would win (That would be Trump winning seniors by +1 point instead of +11 points, and Biden winning young voters by 9 points instead of 29 points).It could be tough to bring some young voters back on board with so many upset over Gaza. In the survey, 61% of voters 18-29 said they disapprove of the job Biden is doing overall — and he has a lot of work to do to get Latinos even close to the level they supported him at four years ago.
I think that appealing to younger voters as the core of your political message is critically important.
The New York Times has an article (free articles limited to non-subscribers, but should be available via incognito mode) How ‘All in the Family’ Explains Biden’s Strength Among Seniors
Warning - This article lists people who will be seniors on or before election day and it may make you feel old.
There are a number of articles of various types prognosticating about the election. Also at the New York Times, Simon Rosenberg (Democratic Strategist) shared his upbeat take on the election. Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn’t.Yesterday’s hippies have become today’s seniors — and they’re still voting Democratic.
I would like to be optimistic about a Democratic victory in November. I think the 4 years that Trump was president were the worst years of my entire life. I couldn't go a full day without my outrage meter exploding. And that was when Trump didn't have a plan. I fear what it would be like knowing his plan for organized revenge and an assault on our institutions is fully formed.Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist and consultant, is pushing back against the Democratic doom and gloom.
