The Gaming Den

PseudoStupidity wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 31, 2024 7:54 pm

Any company that handed all its money to SVB for safe keeping was gambling

Technically some of them were merely complying with the terms of their loan contract in which they got a 5 million dollar zero interest loan from SVB in return for banking with SVB.

If your point is that these things can't be estimated, I disagree. If you think you have a better estimate, that'd be something worth discussing. But I absolutely don't believe that Trump will be assassinated. As you note, he has security. My take is that security will be better after the oversight...

"The liklihood of the guy who got his ear wiffed by a bullet getting assassinated is .004% because generally the people who walk around with guns aren't generally the people who want to kill him" is a pretty great example of how your post hoc rationalizations get for using an acturial tabl...

Going to ignore all the very stupid roulette example and focus on the assassination thing: 1) you are claiming to know that an assassination has less then 1/100th of a percent chance. Do you realize that? You said 1/10, but you claim it has less then 1/100th of a percent. 2) putting "all politi...

As for Trump, the odds-makers established 0.79% as the 'break-even'. All you have to do is calculate if that is too high or too low. I calculated it as too high. Assassinations (like meteor strikes) just don't make much impact. Considering how polarized our politics is, if assassinations were easy ...

The fact that dead dm thinks incrementally losing money over and over and over until you eventually get a single big payout is "incremental gains" does at least explain his political desire to keep promoting the worst democrats to incrementally make everything worse forever as "increm...

Yeah cannot stress how much that part of svb's "investment" strategy was to give companies low interest loans that no other bank would give IN RETURN FOR having them put millions of dollars in deposit accounts with svb. So it was literally the case that the federal government bailed out th...

It's extremely funny to now be like "if you assume the person posting on tgd is a billionaire investor making one of millions of investments my betting advice was good."

Doesn't really address any of the criticism but does introduce a new one.

Nah, nate silver never went anywhere after 2016. He coasted being the least wrong of the major pollsters into continuing to be the pollster guy for years. His contract wasn't renewed at 538 in 2023, so he wrote a book that's basically "confessionals of a gambling addict" though he doesn't ...

I mean if he gets his gambling understanding from a guy with an intense gambling addiction it explains why he ignores things like "the actual cost/benefit of gambling away a bunch of money vs winning a longshot bet" because presumably the high of winning a Longshot bet is the actual benefi...

Nate Silver does not show that you can calculate an answer based on probability to the question of whether or not Trump will be assassinated. The ability to make probability calculations has long predated Nate Silver and Nate Silver did not invent a heretofore unknown method of putting in bad inputs...

People told you why you were wrong. It's not our fault you are too stupid to understand. Back in the day, posters like UserName17 would explain why you were wrong using small words. But even if you think you've explained why I'm wrong (and I contend you have not) you have not laid out what the righ...

People told you why you were wrong.

It's not our fault you are too stupid to understand.

Not sure if completely failing to understand what people say and making up a new thing to imagine they say is bot posting or just normal deaddm.

If someone is asked "how likely is Trump to win the election" and you answer "I think it's about 50/50, because God spoke to me and said 'on election day flip a coin, I will decide who wins based on your coin flip'" being '"right" about the chances isn't very meaningful...

Look phone lobster you don't understand. Hillary Clinton only lost Michigan because 170k safe Democratic voters who definitely wanted Clinton to win but were so confident she was going to win that they threw away their vote by voting for GARY JOHNSON. Everyone knows that libertarians are widely know...

God fucking damn it, please stop bot posting. No one needs to understand acturial data, but if you don't understand it stop posting about it.

Fuck, what I said about acturial data, but also about elections.

LMAO.

I think that some things, like a brain aneurysm, can cause death sufficiently fast that there's nothing that the people on the Trump jet can do before it's game over. No, if you wanted him to have a functioning brain and serve as president, there are a small set of things that might prevent that. B...

Look, I think that Trump's likelihood of dying is basically the same as any other man his age, statistically. Unless he's hooked up to a hospital bed then a stroke or a heart attack are things that can happen and there's nothing that anyone will be able to do about it. There are in fact things peop...

Hey uh, quick check, if Carter dies does it throw half the country into crisis and result in hundreds of people losing their jobs who are also the exact people who will decide if he is put on an iron lung? This is such delusional shit. We can literally keep a dead guy's corpse "alive" for ...

If you don't think that Trump is a representative sample from the group of [all ~80 year old American men] you need to have some explanation for why he isn't.

Truly if only every single person in this thread was making fun of you specifically because this had already been done.

As for political figures like Trump, there's some things that make his death more likely (assassins, travel, stairs) and less likely (24-hour care, protection). Ultimately, I think that you can call those things a wash and assume that Trump's chances of dying are effectively the same as any other m...

I honestly just assumed the specific bet language was miscommunicated and it is like most bets, a bet about the next president, which actually gives a wider range of possible success, where Trump wins the election but then still dies before taking office.

I'm filing this in the chatpgt posts. Imagine saying you know what the percent chance of Trump dying is to such a weird and unjustified level of specificity. The calculations are taken from actuarial data. It's specific in that it applies to people his age and doesn't rely on knowledge of his speci...

I'm filing this in the chatpgt posts.

Imagine saying you know what the percent chance of Trump dying is to such a weird and unjustified level of specificity.