You must use as much oil as possible. For the children.

[Psychic Robot]

Once the oil's gone, the oil conglomerates will all roll out alternative fuel systems, thus saving the planet from pollution and saving us from dependence on fossil fuels. So buy an SUV, fill up your propane tank, drink gasoline at every meal. You're doing it for the children.

[RobbyPants]

I was just thinking about oil companies and consumption earlier.

The thing that bugs me is really, with several companies all competing, it's in each of their best interest to try and get as much oil as possible as cheaply as possible as long as they can before being forced to fully invest in alternative energies. It seems that a proactive company would be hurting themselves for quite a while to invest too much into a less profitable energy source, so none of them want to do it.

I'm having trouble finding a number for how long we think we have until we run out of oil. Wikipedia has an estimate of reaching peak oil production at about 2020, but that's just the peak. It seems that the companies have quite a while to go before they have to seriously shift gears.

[Crissa]

We already hit peak oil. The only reason we haven't started seeing price spikes again is because of a global depression the size of which hasn't been seen in 80 years.

-Crissa

[CatharzGodfoot]

Alas, the tragedy of the commons.

[Maj]

What I want to know is what will happen to farming without oil.

[Count Arioch the 28th]

[K]

We already hit peak oil. The only reason we haven't started seeing price spikes again is because of a global depression the size of which hasn't been seen in 80 years.

-Crissa

Actually true.

I recall watching a documentary about inventions and someone had come up with a machine that turned garbage and a crapload of energy into oil. The problem was that since it used a crapload of energy, it made each barrel like 100 dollars. The program's narrator then interviewed several financial guys saying "100 dollars a barrel will never happen!" and that the invention was in fact useless.

Then six months later I was flipping through the channels and saw that oil was in fact at 100 a barrel.

Luckily, the economy of the planet tanked and no one could afford 100 a barrel. The free market is kinda wonderful in that when no one has money, prices go down.

The problem is not that we will run out of oil and move to alternatives, it's that people will do more and more dangerous shit to get oil as reserves are depleted. Widespread offshore drilling is just one consequence.

And considering how much of the earth's oxygen is produced in the ocean from marine algae, the end of the world for humans may not come from nuclear fire as we imagined or some pandemic, but from a few hundred dollars worth of explosives strapped to oil platforms which when they explode and send even more millions of gallons into the oceans, they might touch off a big enough algae die-off that the mammals of the planet won't survive.

Oil sucks. Renewables ftw.

[RobbyPants]

Luckily, the economy of the planet tanked and no one could afford 100 a barrel. The free market is kinda wonderful in that when no one has money, prices go down.

I don't know if "luckily" is a good word.

If gas prices stayed continually high, there might be enough pressure and incentive to start investing in other resources. It may actually become more profitable.

Of course, the problem with that is a lot of poor people have to proportionally bear the brunt of that burden.

[Koumei]

And considering how much of the earth's oxygen is produced in the ocean from marine algae, the end of the world for humans may not come from nuclear fire as we imagined or some pandemic, but from a few hundred dollars worth of explosives strapped to oil platforms which when they explode and send even more millions of gallons into the oceans, they might touch off a big enough algae die-off that the mammals of the planet won't survive.

Can I actually hope for the end of all human life in my li... er, lifetime isn't really appropriate here. In the next ~50 years?

[Count Arioch the 28th]

BP moves from Mexicans to Africans

Crap like this makes me wish that right to bear arms would be upgraded all the way to ICBMs, because there are few people on the planet that deserve a tactical nuke than BP.

[Juton]

Luckily, the economy of the planet tanked and no one could afford 100 a barrel. The free market is kinda wonderful in that when no one has money, prices go down.

I don't know if "luckily" is a good word.

If gas prices stayed continually high, there might be enough pressure and incentive to start investing in other resources. It may actually become more profitable.

Of course, the problem with that is a lot of poor people have to proportionally bear the brunt of that burden.

Part of the problem is that gasoline was being traded very heavily by commodities traders. I forget if it was the SEC or the economy in general caused them to stop trading in oil so heavily, and it went from $140 a barrel to less than half that in a few months.

[mean_liar]

More on that here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_price_ ... ent_demand

US says that speculation and investment weren't to blame and that it was production shortfalls; OPEC says the opposite.

http://oilinsights.net/blog/wp-content/ ... dOilo2.jpg

This shows that at least some of the oil price rise and collapse was correlated with dollar valuations: that oil is/was bought and sold with US dollars was reflected (to some extent) in it's value on the market independent of speculation.

Correlation is not causation, however:

http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf

This report states that investment correlates with rising prices, and draws from that speculation driving prices higher.

My grasp of economics is marginal, but my own perspective is that dumping billions into a paper market setting prices for a very active real market is only going to increase volatility. The future trading dwarfed the real trading - it seems reasonable to expect that activity to filter into the pricing.

[K]

And considering how much of the earth's oxygen is produced in the ocean from marine algae, the end of the world for humans may not come from nuclear fire as we imagined or some pandemic, but from a few hundred dollars worth of explosives strapped to oil platforms which when they explode and send even more millions of gallons into the oceans, they might touch off a big enough algae die-off that the mammals of the planet won't survive.

Can I actually hope for the end of all human life in my li... er, lifetime isn't really appropriate here. In the next ~50 years?

Yes.

Oil production is on the decline because we have run out the the "dig a hole in the ground and oil shoots out of it" oil and now we are moving on to "under the ocean or trapped in shale which we have to process just to get the oil to then process" oil.

This means rising prices, and greater expenditures into risky drilling operations. Foreign wars in the Mid-east are going to be small potatoes compared to the bullshit governments will go to in the effort to secure more oil. We have to secure more oil because our economy will stop and our population will die off if we don't have it (never underestimate the fragility of modern society and how we are dependent on the transportation of goods....you won't eat if the trucks don't fill up the grocery store, and there isn't shit you can do about it.... especially if you can't drive anywhere).

Remember, the Japanese attacked the US to kick off our part in WWII because we blockaded them from their oil. Widespread and poorly maintained oil platforms are just one of the easier ways we could die.

[Surgo]

Given how it's very obviously the single biggest weakness America has, I can't see why the push for alternative energy isn't a #1 priority for anything not being paid for by the oil industry.

[RobbyPants]

Because the people have a lot of control stand to make a lot of money keeping things they way they are as long as possible.

But yeah, I agree. If we know we're going to run out, I don't see why we wouldn't invest in alternatives now so they won't be so expensive when we need them.

[Psychic Robot]

If we know we're going to run out, I don't see why we wouldn't invest in alternatives now so they won't be so expensive when we need them.

Because those things are expensive, and most Americans don't want to pay more for shit they need. I recall a blurb in Time where a man commented wished that he "could afford outrage" at BP, as their gas was about $.30 cheaper per gallon than the competitors.

[Count Arioch the 28th]

Because those things are expensive, and most Americans don't want to pay more for shit they need.

Most Americans CAN'T afford to pay more for shit they need. Granted, the rest are tight bastards who are willing to pay 10x as much for medical care just to make sure one cent doesn't go to welfare moms for their children, but most of us are living on a thread.

The problem is that Americans aren't willing enough to solve things ferally. We've become a nation of weak pussies. Other nations would be rioting in the streets for far less than having their government processes usurped by corporate interests.

The fact that the CEO of BP was in America and the American people didn't collectively yank him out of his vehicle and lynch him in the streets is a failing.

[Psychic Robot]

The fact that the CEO of BP was in America and the American people didn't collectively yank him out of his vehicle and lynch him in the streets is a failing.

[Prak]

Honestly I didn't even know he was here, or that I have any special reason to be pissed at him as an american, rather than just a person who gives a shit about the environment. I have a feeling most americans are in similar circumstances.

[Orca]

IIRC one of the standard problems with getting corporations (or gov'ts that think like them) interested in alternatives to petroleum, is that costs are far enough away that standard time discount rates say that spending 0.1% of the projected costs is too much. Money now is worth more.

[Count Arioch the 28th]

The fact that the CEO of BP was in America and the American people didn't collectively yank him out of his vehicle and lynch him in the streets is a failing.

I understand perfectly what you are saying (Because no matter how tough any one individual happens to be, most people are within minutes of having trained people with weapons appear to maintain order, who can summon more if needed). I'm just frustrated that there are 93 regular and broke people for every 7 millionaires in America, it boggles my mind that we have to do their bidding when we could easily overpower them. They should be terrified shitless of us, and yet Americans are more than happy to bend over and take it like a man whenever a rich person has the slightest whim.

[Lago PARANOIA]

I just object to your implication that this is a recent development, as if Americans had somehow turned into pussies rather than always worshipping a gospel that hurt themselves and others because the rich people said so.

Civil War, Roaring 20's, and 60's-70's say hi.

[Count Arioch the 28th]

I just object to your implication that this is a recent development, as if Americans had somehow turned into pussies rather than always worshipping a gospel that hurt themselves and others because the rich people said so.

Civil War, Roaring 20's, and 60's-70's say hi.

A valid point, sir! May I re-clarify and say that the pussification happened more on an incline rather than all at once recently?

[Zinegata]

Every civilization has had rich and poor. Except in the old days the rich wore armor and used swords against malnourished peasants armed with sticks.

[Lago PARANOIA]

May I re-clarify and say that the pussification happened more on an incline rather than all at once recently?

No.

Americans don't learn ANYTHING until it up and punches them right in the fucking groin. The problem is that the stakes are higher this time and that since the 40s-50s Americans have been fed a steady diet of propaganda that this country is unconditionally fuckawesome and that it's because we deserve to be awesome.

It's the like the first commandment. That kind of attitude is POISON towards any kind of introspection or tolerance. Fortunately the Information Age and the very probable fact that Generation X and Y are going to be poorer than the Baby Boomers are starting to break at this attitude. It probably won't be in time to save the planet, but if we don't kill ourselves I do hold out hope.