Is D&D Next going to flop?

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Post by Username17 »

Cyberzombie wrote:They actually had some decent ideas with D&DN.
No. They really don't.
The concept of a modular game with interchangeable systems is a good idea.
No it isn't. We already had that edition. It was called "2nd Edition Advanced Dungeons & Dragons". Everything was modular and interchangeable. Even before we got to the crazy shit like Combat & Tactics, the entire way characters interacted with space and time was modular and interchangeable. The rules reminded you every couple of pages that everything was optional and could be changed by the DM, and everything from character skills to the tactical grid was given as a series of options of varying complexity.

Everything you could ever want a modular version of D&D with interchangeable systems was on the table in 1989. And we don't fucking play that edition, because 3rd edition is better. The reality is that having a single system that actually works is worth a million times more than having three shitty and non-functional optional subsystems to handle every single thing you might want to do. Yes, DMs are going to change rules, both unilaterally and by table vote. But it isn't at all helpful to have the rules not be nailed down and explicable before that happens.
Bounded accuracy is also a good idea, in concept anyway.
No. It isn't. If you carry through on such a concept, then titans can't kick open doors. The reality is that powerful things are supposed to succeed at simple tasks. And if you enforce bounded accuracy at all, that isn't going to happen.

Worse, you're still going to want powerful creatures to be able to take out large numbers of bullshit opponents. And if you freeze attack and defense scaling, then you're just going to have to scale damage and hit points that much faster. Which would you rather have? High level monsters that can't threaten villages because a bunch of peasants with slings will murderate the dragon? Or high level monsters with ten thousand hit points? If you embrace bounded accuracy you must have one or the other. And both options suck.

There are no good ideas on display in D&D5. If anyone thought through the ramifications of these ideas for even half an hour, they would be forced to conclude that there was nothing there worth saving. Not even as a concept or design goal.

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Post by Ed »

I think you're being a little too harsh, Frank. "MAKE FAT STACKS OF CASH hopefully without doing any work" is a pretty compelling design goal.
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Post by Cyberzombie »

FrankTrollman wrote: No it isn't. We already had that edition. It was called "2nd Edition Advanced Dungeons & Dragons". Everything was modular and interchangeable. Even before we got to the crazy shit like Combat & Tactics, the entire way characters interacted with space and time was modular and interchangeable. The rules reminded you every couple of pages that everything was optional and could be changed by the DM, and everything from character skills to the tactical grid was given as a series of options of varying complexity.
And that's actually good, because D&D games tend to play out vastly different from table to table. Some people run hack'n'slash, other people want complex deep roleplay sessions, some want low magic, and others want fantasy-themed superheroes. You're going to find hundreds of different permutations as to how people actually play D&D.

And when you tell people they can't have what they want, they get upset and either house rule the game or drop it entirely. Unfortunately many DMs are not good game designers, and so the game suffers because they try to adapt the game into something they want to play. And they're going to do that shit whether you create modules or not.

People want variants. They have since the inception of D&D. And that doesn't change whether you're playing AD&D or 3E. What do you really think Pathfinder is but a series of house rules for 3E? What are the Tomes that you yourself helped create? Variants, house rules, modules... whatever you choose to call them, they amount to the same thing. People want to run D&D their way. The very fact that you've created pages and pages of house rules proves just that.

We already know people love altering the game to fit their style, it's part of the heart and soul of D&D. The designers should embrace that philosophy and provide variants that have actually been playtested and balanced. AD&D may have had a lot of problematic issues, but the desire to create variants was not one of them.
No. It isn't. If you carry through on such a concept, then titans can't kick open doors. The reality is that powerful things are supposed to succeed at simple tasks. And if you enforce bounded accuracy at all, that isn't going to happen.
Strength checks have never worked right. AD&D strength checks have been the best out of the editions, and that's pretty sad. Even then, it was possible that an 8 strength character succeeds where an 18 strength character fails. In 3E, that was just a 5 point difference, and in 4E, a 20th level archmage was automatically stronger than a 1st level barbarian for whatever reason.

With kicking down doors and other pure strength tasks, we just need a non-d20 resolution mechanic. I always tended to use a strength threshold given to each door and anyone above that threshold can kick it down in one try, anything within 4 points of it has a 50% chance and everyone lower just auto-fails.

Skill checks in general probably need an overhaul. Right now there's far too big a gap between the lock that you can pick easily and the lock that is beyond your abilities to pick. And that issue has less to do with bounded accuracy as it does with the d20 being the wrong dice to use for such tests.
Worse, you're still going to want powerful creatures to be able to take out large numbers of bullshit opponents. And if you freeze attack and defense scaling, then you're just going to have to scale damage and hit points that much faster. Which would you rather have? High level monsters that can't threaten villages because a bunch of peasants with slings will murderate the dragon? Or high level monsters with ten thousand hit points? If you embrace bounded accuracy you must have one or the other. And both options suck.
I don't want to go to the crazy extreme of no scaling. That's pretty dumb. I'd just like to see reduced scaling, so that lower level stuff remains somewhat relevant and doesn't just devolve into tossing a bunch of dice hoping a 20 comes up. I'd be happy if AC scaled a lot slower than attack bonus, so that you'd always hit the orcs, but you wouldn't necessary be unhittable to them. It would work fairly well with 3E style iterative attacks or a power attack mechanic, since you'd now have scaling damage too.

Granted I don't like the solution the designers came up, because Mearls can't find his ass using both hands, but I felt that the spirit of BA is in the right place. I'm not certain what the best method for achieving that goal actually is. I hated the minion system in 4E. I do like the idea that I can toss down 40 orcs against a group of level 7-10 characters and have them be more than a waste of the DM's time. That's not to say that low level monsters never get phased out, simply that the level range is wider.

I realize this may not be the flavor you want in your games, so it's probably something you wanted to make modular. Everyone has their own particular tastes and if a company want to be successful as an RPG giant, they need to cater to many different styles.
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Post by Voss »

Cyberzombie wrote: Strength checks have never worked right. AD&D strength checks have been the best out of the editions, and that's pretty sad. Even then, it was possible that an 8 strength character succeeds where an 18 strength character fails. In 3E, that was just a 5 point difference, and in 4E, a 20th level archmage was automatically stronger than a 1st level barbarian for whatever reason.
That... isn't true. At all. Not only is the archmage not stronger, his DC for that same check (and indeed, on the same door) is arbitrarily much higher.
Skill checks in general probably need an overhaul. Right now there's far too big a gap between the lock that you can pick easily and the lock that is beyond your abilities to pick. And that issue has less to do with bounded accuracy as it does with the d20 being the wrong dice to use for such tests.
Yeah, this isn't a d20 problem. At least not in the D&D Next version, because the d20 is barely relevant to those DCs, which range from 15 to 30. If you don't have an extra special class bonus of another die type added in for no reason, you can't do skill checks. A 'typical' lock is DC 20, and your max stat bonus is 5. That is just fucked- and the mathematical problems should be obvious. And it would be fucked with any die type, even if it reverted back to percentile checks as in 1st and 2nd.
The inconsistency is also aggravating- other skill checks, average is 15, not 20, but that white-washes the real issue: for typical adventuring tasks that you'd bother to take dice out for, Next assumes a failure rate of 70%; assuming you're maxed out in the relevant stat. If its a really hard task, it isn't actually possible to do it at all, except for a very small number of tasks for specific class/skill combinations.
Cyberzombie wrote:
D&D has never been about rules quality. Every edition has had elements that flat out suck that people have learned to ignore. Whether it's unplayable rogues in AD&D, Casters and Caddies in 3E or godawful long combats or skill challenges in 4E, fans of D&D are experts at turning a blind eye to rules problems in their favorite edition. D&D has never been about math or good design.
'Fuck it, it has never been good, and no one should ever try to make it good' is a fucking terrible argument.
Last edited by Voss on Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by Username17 »

cyberzombie wrote:I realize this may not be the flavor you want in your games, so it's probably something you wanted to make modular. Everyone has their own particular tastes and if a company want to be successful as an RPG giant, they need to cater to many different styles.
No.

:educate:

You should make something that actually works and then let people modify it. Possibly you should even have some sidebars where you explain your design choices and tell people what the expected effects of various changes would be. Under no circumstances should you attempt to make the underlying scaling function of the game "modular". Because that's impossible and doesn't even make any sense.

Having an inconsistent design paradigm as regards level scaling just puts you in a nightmare realm where none of your CRs are "right" because none of them are written according to the same assumptions.

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Post by Cyberzombie »

FrankTrollman wrote: You should make something that actually works and then let people modify it. Possibly you should even have some sidebars where you explain your design choices and tell people what the expected effects of various changes would be. Under no circumstances should you attempt to make the underlying scaling function of the game "modular". Because that's impossible and doesn't even make any sense.

Having an inconsistent design paradigm as regards level scaling just puts you in a nightmare realm where none of your CRs are "right" because none of them are written according to the same assumptions.
It's not impossible, so long as you don't use the 4E arbitrary number paradigm. All it really takes is doing your monsters with a breakdown of where their bonuses come from, along with keywords like "incorporeal" defined in other places. That's something that 3E and PF already does.

So lets say you have these modular style bonuses.

-Enhancement bonuses (from magic items)
-Level based bonuses (from class/monster levels)

So instead of saying: AC 32 (+20 natural, +2 dex).

You'd say: AC 32 (+10 level, +6 natural, +2 dex, +4 enhancement).

Now lets say you were playing low magic, we just remove the enhancement out from that monster. So the aforementioned monster in a low magic setting would have an AC of 28. If we were playing reduced scaling for levels, you might halve the level bonus. If we were using both of those, we'd do both. All in all, the adjustments wouldn't be that difficult to pull off and require simple math.

You want to build the potential for modularity into your system from the start, not apply it afterwards. Right from the beginning, it needs to be accepted that people might use your system for different styles and you provide some methods of backwards engineering your work.

You can also redefine keywords based on what module you're using. So incorporeals may take half damage from non-magical weapons in low magic. Energy drain might do something else depending on what level of lethality you want in your game. So in casual module you can sleep it off, and in hardcore, it may well be a permanent drain unless cured.

You can apply keywords to spells to. So you have a Save or Die keyword, or a Resurrection keyword, etc. Then it becomes relatively easy to make a "Death is permanent" module.

@Voss:

I wasn't recommending Bounded Accuracy for the skill system. This is purely a combat stat thing.

I also wasn't saying that D&D shouldn't be fixed, I was just saying that it might not impact the sales as heavily as one might think. Combine the D&D label with good production qualities, and even a polished turd can do fairly well.
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Post by gamerGoyf »

Gonna cut in here to repost this. 'cause it would be a shame to let it go unacknowledged. I feel it's a good summary of why people their are so attached to 5e ^_^
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and then they fuck I guess :?

So when I come along and state inconvient facts like Mearls being a master ruseman or 3e actually being fairly popular. It sort ruins their fantasy wedding with Mike I guess ;3
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Post by Username17 »

Cyberzombie wrote:So lets say you have these modular style bonuses.

-Enhancement bonuses (from magic items)
-Level based bonuses (from class/monster levels)

So instead of saying: AC 32 (+20 natural, +2 dex).

You'd say: AC 32 (+10 level, +6 natural, +2 dex, +4 enhancement).
Oh fuck no. Things are not that easy. Things will never be that easy. To even approach things like that actually working, you'd have to make the game as simplistic and shitty as 4e. And it still wouldn't work in 4e.

Let's consider a small sampling of why that's a shit idea.
  • The Goblin Warrior goes to war in leather armor with a light shield. Needless to say, a higher level monster such as a Deathknight might expect to go to war in magic platemail. Fiddling with the "level bonus" won't make the Goblin fight at the level of a Death Knight, nor would it bring the Death Knight down to the level of a Goblin.
  • Abilities are more than numbers. No matter how big you make the numbers on a bear, it's still just a bear, and higher level characters can and will kite it to death. On the other hand, a first level party with no magic weapons cannot fight an incorporeal creature no matter how shitty its numbers are.
  • Force multipliers are totally a real thing. And they will react wildly differently to numeric shifts. Just on the most basic level, if you shift the defenses of a regenerating creature up, it will spend more time healing which in turn will make it more resilient than the exact same increase in defenses of a non-regenerating creature. You can't say that two enemies are going to get the same relative benefit from increasing their bonuses in the same way. In fact, you can be almost certain that they won't.
  • But basically, this is a shit idea, because it is obviously a shit idea!


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gamerGoyf wrote:Gonna cut in here to repost this. 'cause it would be a shame to let it go unacknowledged. I feel it's a good summary of why people their are so attached to 5e ^_^
Yeah...could you not do this please? Or link it or something so I don't have to see that garbage. I don't go to that shitty site, stop bringing that shitty site over here.
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Post by deaddmwalking »

I think modular design is a bad idea. A very, very, very bad idea. I don't know why people keep telling me it is a good idea, because it isn't.

When you have a uniform ruleset, you can design everything around it. For example, if you try to make 'feats' a module, you either have to make two versions of every monster - one with feats and one without or you have to decide which version to support in which case everyone who chooses not to use the module has to modify it.

By choosing a set and being consistent, anyone who chooses to modify the rules will be familiar with how to apply that change. Now, designers can offer suggestions for alternate rules, or how to discard a particular rule... But from the design point, they should have an idea of what the rules actually are, and write material around that.

And if they make good rules, that's going to be the ones that most people use.
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Post by Koumei »

I'll add that it's definitely good to add little sidebars saying "If you want to change your game to be more like X then..." or whatever. For Bakuhatsu High*, it has a section on the back saying what basic things you should change if you specifically want it to be an X-Men Mutant Academy game, or a Harry Potter game, or a Freezing! game. Less extreme cases should certainly exist for sidebars of "So this is D&D, but if you want a more gritty game, then..." or "If you're playing Vampire but don't cut yourself at night, then perhaps..."

But make those just some guidelines for how to mod the game if you want to, and make it known that the core assumption is "you're not doing that".

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Post by PhoneLobster »

I think it is pretty clear modularity only really has a place at the level of items that could reasonably appear as campaign setting materials.

Places, items, classes, races, and in a system where abilities are selectable options (like say feats) then abilities for races, monsters, items, places etc... can be modular to some extent (though there really needs to at least be a common core foundation).

You can make "Ghost Thief" a modular class that might not be in core. You can make "Dire Flail" a modular option, Light Purple Elves can be added to your elf sub race rainbow if you like, and so on.

But you can't say "if you feel like it roll 3d6 instead of 1d20 as your base rolling mechanic", you can't say "classes get X abilities per level or fuck it, whatever, don't and make all the numbers bigger instead", you can't say "The Stealth Mechanics are either a functional set, or MTP, or an advanced set that is fubar or another set that is functional but dramatically different in requirements, expectations and outcomes!".

There is a lot of potential flexibility in a good RPG system, but it has limits, you are going to be playing mostly the same game and style of game with maybe some slightly different settings and options. Your modular materials can potentially be as potent as to be metaphorical game changers, but in the end you really can't have them be literal game changers, not in a modular manner, that just leads to chaos and insanity.
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Post by Wiseman »

So if dndnext does tank like it's predicted to, what happens to the franchise? I mean, is Mearls the only one left? If they fire him then what happens next? Does Hasbro drop D&D entirely?

P.S. I heard they would be bringing back planescape for 5E. Are they? That is really the only reason I'm even interested in it in the first place. And even then, I'd be buying the books only for the fluff.
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Wiseman wrote:So if dndnext does tank like it's predicted to, what happens to the franchise? I mean, is Mearls the only one left? If they fire him then what happens next? Does Hasbro drop D&D entirely?
Hasbro won't drop the IP. It's way too valuable. When we say that D&D does poorly in terms of income it brings it, we're talking about the game rulebooks and not the IP as a whole. The novels actually pull in a decent amount of cash, and D&D is a hugecultural icon which makes it way more valuable than just the numbers on a paper.

Even now, D&D is profitable, it's just not profitable enough that Hasbro is going to worry about growing it. If 5e tanks, the D&D game is left to linger on on the profits it makes with no outside help, basically just like has been for years.
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Post by Voss »

deaddmwalking wrote:I think modular design is a bad idea. A very, very, very bad idea. I don't know why people keep telling me it is a good idea, because it isn't.
It is, and I think they've realized it and axed it without admitting to it. Skills have been toned down to irrelevance (basically a lore check); and everything else is a flat stat check. Feats are pretty much sidelined for everyone- yes, you can set stat boosts on fire for feats, but there aren't many that any given character would even want to take. Sure there can be splats full of items, spells, classes and races, but there isn't going to be a 'complex' fighter and a 'simple' fighter, or whatever the fuck they were talking about when they were actually enthusing about 'modules'. Just someone who traded str and con bonuses for a minor DR and +1 AC, or a big bonus to init and immunity to surprise.
Wiseman wrote:So if dndnext does tank like it's predicted to, what happens to the franchise? I mean, is Mearls the only one left? If they fire him then what happens next? Does Hasbro drop D&D entirely?
It isn't something they really care about now, as any product line that makes under $X just gets ignored by the greater company (unless it is actually draining money of course). But the license rights alone may keep it in the umbrella.

But more than likely Hasbro will do a study, and if money/time into D&D produces less than that same money/time into Magic, including licenses, they'll likely axe it. If it still looks like it makes money, they'll hold onto it, but whether they waste time and money on 6th edition is a whole 'nother issue. I know if I were giving advice for a stockholder report, I'd laugh and suggest they bury it for the future, or sell it outright. If DDO and Neverwinter and Salvatore books are bringing in positive income, it might be worth keeping that and splitting the rights to other formats off. Basically keep FR rights and digital entertainment rights and leaving the rest to be sold, buried or set on fire.

As far as cultural icons go... bullshit. A lot of people that know about D&D at all think it is dead, a joke or something they don't care about anymore. Keeping it as a 'live product' doesn't mean squat for Hasbro, other than monetarily. If they care about reputation as it concerns D&D at all, the fact that they'll have a second failure of the product line will matter much more than some bullshit 'cultural icon' status. They've got ponies and giant robots for that sort of shit.
Last edited by Voss on Sat Sep 07, 2013 5:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by Username17 »

Related news: Hasbro is no longer the second biggest toy company. It has been overtaken by Lego.

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Post by tussock »

Fail? It seems Mearls wanted an oldschool D&D (using the d20 base math) that he can play low-level extreme-spelunking D&D with forever. d20 with note that stacking checklists are terrible, prerequisites are shit, and d20+35 vs DC 40 is stupid, and ... some people actually liked 4e because it was easier for the DM to prep than 3e was, albeit players hated the grind.

They did that. The last round of fighters totally has a complex option or simple option via feat sets. It seems to do everything that most people wanted it to do. Casters run low on spells, melee carves through bunches of mook monsters, prep is pretty damn easy, healing is functionally a lot like 4e while looking a lot like classic D&D. Clever in a lot of ways.

If the casters auto-win a fight or two, you throw some more at them, no big deal. No grind, just smash-em-up goodness. Beer & Pretzels.

The problem is, naturally, people do not always like getting what it is they wanted. You'll go from dying to Orcs at 11th level to curb-stomping Orcus at 12th with one badly written feat, because there's just not that much difference. Items are all special snowflakes again, which does lead to crazy variability in group power (which you used to handle with a very big stick, but now there are none. The threats can't grow much because the PCs never really do).


So it'll have different problems to 3e and 4e, and that'll take time to annoy folk if they play it. A lot of the d20-era problems are genuinely gone, and that'll make people happy for a while. But long-term? No. The power-creep will be too obvious and thus offend people, and the limited options vs fairly bland monsters far too easy to maximise for the charop boards.

I think it looks pretty good in terms of the old-school crowd, depending on their art budget and direction (less brown would be nice). Maybe they'll sell a bunch of art-heavy setting books and novels with it, for the story-tellers that aren't too interested in Pathfinder's maths homework approach.

It's a better game than 4e at this point. It should sell better than 4e. But it's going to make people go looking for "more" once they find what a small box it is (unless it goes back to whacky-slow advancement like 2e) and that'll likely be Pathfinder. Paizo should be happy.
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Post by Voss »

How do you figure complex vs simple fighters? You aren't really going to claim that the option to take tiny packages of mostly static bonuses rather than +2 to a stat (or +1 to two) is meaningfully complex are you? Because 'Charger' is really one of the 'crazy' feats, allowing the player to choose between +5 damage or a strength check to push something.


I'm not sold on it being a better game than 4e either ('Better than 2e' I might agree with, once they fill more gaps, but even then...). Different, yes. Less padded sumo, certainly. But they are both missing large chunks of content, it just varies as to what exactly is missing.
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Post by erik »

FrankTrollman wrote:Related news: Hasbro is no longer the second biggest toy company. It has been overtaken by Lego.

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This doesn't come as a surprise from what I've seen in the past year. First Tuesday of every month the Lego store by me has a free lego day where they let kids come and assemble like a 25-40 piece tchotchke at the store and then take it home. At the mall there is a huge line and by the number of parents I see leaving the store with purchased sets, it is paying off. I think the Lego store fronts have been a big success. On Tuesdays I imagine the mall gets a decent bump in sales just because of that little Lego store.

They've also been mastering insidious product design. Some of the sets combine by offering instructions on how to build bigger things with the pieces of 3 combined sets.

Add to that that Lego has other tentacles product lines like games, video games, and sets associated with other licenses. My dad has bemoaned that Lego is a privately held company for the last year since my eldest son introduced him to the resurgence.
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Post by fectin »

I've never been convinced the modular system is impossible. It's a good goal, you can imagine it working in concept, if not in detail, and that suggests to me that the issue is lack of actual design refinement vice the concept being unrealizable.

Of course, I have precisely zero faith in WotC's ability to pull something like that off, because that would require any sort of discipline at all.
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Post by RadiantPhoenix »

I think the real reason 5e is trying to be modular is because of the success of Lego. :p
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Post by Username17 »

fectin wrote:I've never been convinced the modular system is impossible. It's a good goal, you can imagine it working in concept, if not in detail, and that suggests to me that the issue is lack of actual design refinement vice the concept being unrealizable.

Of course, I have precisely zero faith in WotC's ability to pull something like that off, because that would require any sort of discipline at all.
I can't even really imagine the modular system working in concept. Look, we all agree that you could probably have a better game than Pathfinder. Nevertheless, I end up playing games of Pathfinder from time to time, because it's there and everyone basically knows how it works. If you make the game "modular", you make it so that I don't know how the game works anymore. Every "module" is something I have to be told about how the game is being played before I can sit down and play the game.

What the game should be is expandable. But I would think that really goes without saying. So long as Blue Elves still get special rules distinct from Yellow Elves, the expandability of the game is not in doubt. Heck, as long as it's a class system at all, they can always expand the game through simple classplosion.

2nd edition took modularity about as far as it could go, and it was bad. And it was bad for entirely predictable reasons. Characters weren't transferable between tables because the modules made games incompatible. Expansion material ended up having to take sides between the modules and the game's modularity actually decreased as time went on. All the expansion material ended up being predicated on the idea that you were using non-weapon proficiencies, so the entire secondary skill module ended up going out the window.

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wotmaniac
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Post by wotmaniac »

FrankTrollman wrote:Characters weren't transferable between tables because the modules made games incompatible.
Question: How does this differ from characters made with expansion material? If my character was made with primarily expansion material, and I show up to a table that is using Core-only ..... see what I'm getting at?
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Post by MGuy »

wotmaniac wrote:
FrankTrollman wrote:Characters weren't transferable between tables because the modules made games incompatible.
Question: How does this differ from characters made with expansion material? If my character was made with primarily expansion material, and I show up to a table that is using Core-only ..... see what I'm getting at?
Expansion material still works with the rules. If it's modular the rules themselves would differ.
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Post by Cyberzombie »

fectin wrote:I've never been convinced the modular system is impossible. It's a good goal, you can imagine it working in concept, if not in detail, and that suggests to me that the issue is lack of actual design refinement vice the concept being unrealizable.

Of course, I have precisely zero faith in WotC's ability to pull something like that off, because that would require any sort of discipline at all.
100% agree with you there.

There is no way that the current design team has any shot of pulling off a modular system. It'd be a miracle if Mearls can pull off a standard system that doesn't have untested garbage math.
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