Count_Arioch_the_28th at [unixtime wrote:1200924233[/unixtime]]I actually intend to vote in the Virginia primary on the 12th.
Normally, I dislike politicians in general because they've all sold out to different extents. But I feel it is too important for a republican to not win the election that I'm actually watching and participating in this one.
You do realize that voting in the primary has no meaningful effect on the actual election, right? The real one where you choose Red or Blue? Just don't bother voting for Edwards. He's just wandering around hoping the winner will pick him for the VP slot in an effort to pick up a southern state or two in November.
By the time the VA primary rolls around, you're just going to be choosing between going on the books for 'first real black candidate or first real woman candidate'. Assuming Super Tuesday doesn't settle it for you.
The primaries are a little weird this year because they actually matter a little. Several of these candidates are questionable when it comes to electability in the national election, what with all the funky prejudices of the American public. Or at least the 25% percent or so of the total population that actual can and will vote.
You've pretty much have to coldly work out the odds. Mellow & Safe Black Guy can probably beat Crazy Religious Nut, but probably not Two-Faced War Veteran. He, in turn, might lose to Angry Queen of the Bitch People, but only if Chubby Hubby can continue to wrangle the 'minorities' into the voting booth. Not Particularly Conservative Catcher's Glove might be able to win with a centrist (and economy focused) position, but only if he can keep his family's freakishly deformed chins off national television. But he has to drag the whole fucking thing out and win delegates the hard way, because they're no way in hell he's outright winning primaries in the south.
That actually works, too. 'Winning' the primaries doesn't mean shit. (Except for the momentum thing in the next state, but even that isn't doing much this year) Most states divvy up their delegates based on the percentage of the vote the candidates actually got, which means in the states that have actually had primaries, Obama and Clinton basically have equal shares of the delegates, regardless of who actually won. Of course, with the funky pre-pledged delegate thing that the Dems do, Clinton actually has a fair lead.
On the GoP side, Romney is ahead on the delegate count despite the fact that he didn't 'win' the highly publicized primaries. As long as he can keep doing well, he doesn't have to actually win the South. And South Carolina has pretty much demonstrated that Huckabee can't win. If he can't take crazy southern states, he doesn't have a prayer in the rest of the country.
So take your pick. Obama or Clinton vs Romney or McCain.