That said, my analysis missed something huge when predicting the collapse of the GOP: a similar weakness mirrored within the Democratic Party. Now, in theory, the Democratic Party isn't in as bad of a position as the GOP. They could become an electorally dominant force not seen since the 1930s just like that. They have the positions and they have the votes and they have the infrastructure. Whether we're talking about voting rights, abortion, imperialism, education, LGBT rights, racial justice, unions, WHATEVER the Democrats usually have a majority position and sometimes have the supermajority.
Again, in theory.
The problem is, and the Democratic Party goes to great pains to hide this, is that it's being led by the dick and balls by a faction of bourgeois, even haute bourgeois, coastal liberals who have a monstrously unpopular agenda. That agenda being: handjobs to cops and statesec, techdick entrepreneuralism, tech-enabled workplace managerialism, increasingly accelerating educational requirements for academia, a vigorous (but smartly led!) military-industrial complex, turning bureaucracies into a source of profit, austerity and low inflation, taxes as a replacement for social engineering, and status-quo legalism. You know, stuff the capitalists who own if not outright directly chair the Democratic Party want.
This friction between what the leadership wants and what the voting base wants makes its purported electoral strength largely illusory. 2014 and 2018 being years of record electoral triumph for both the liberals and the fascists, especially in absence of an exogenous event like a recession or war, is unheard-of. It's an outcome that only makes sense if you believe that both parties are unsustainably weak.
So where's all this going? Here's my prediction.
- The parties stay weak. There's no reason for them to change. The capitalists are winning under Trump and they're winning under Biden. Yes, some Tea People and Pepes are going to be very upset/juiced depending on how 2022 turns out. But their opinion doesn't matter. And fascists aren't smart enough to realize that they're the housebroken and gelded lackeys of the cuckservatives they so hate. As we can see by Trump agreeing to slit his own throat and sabotage his Presidency to keep the billionaire class happy.
- There isn't going to be a replacement party or a viable 3rd-party. Why would there be? Way too many people believe that the Democratic Party is reformable. Even after President Ted Cruz chews up the party and spits it out in 2024, vowing to use his Constitution-rewriting statehouse supermajority to pass a Right To Work and a Balanced Budget Amendment, there will always be some scared bunnypants willing to reinflate the saggy corpse of the Democratic Party juuuust enough so that there can be no viable alternative.
- The 2024 and especially 2022 landscape looks really fucking bad for the Democratic Party. Not as bad as 2018 had Clinton been President, thank God, but still really fucking bad. The GOP recapturing a Constitution-rewriting statehouse supermajority just during the 2022 midterms is not out of the question. If 2022 and 2024 end up looking like 2014 and 2016, it's all but guaranteed.
- The Democratic Party (and its adjacent consultancy and media apparatuses) is shielded from failure. There are no personal or professional consequences for electoral failure, even spectacular electoral failure like we saw in 2010, 2014, and 2016, so long as the failure was within the bounds of liberal orthodoxy. The apparatchik still get to wet their beaks, the politicians still get to stay rich, the party still gets to keep its captured voting base who only alternatives are the fascists. So don't expect for them to be even the tiniest bit fazed about the oncoming 2022 disaster except for some Twitter weirdos who ironically don't actually have a vocational stake in politics.
- A Bernie Sanders or AOC type isn't going to stave off this collapse. On the contrary, it would've accelerated it if Bernie became President in 2016, let alone 2020. As of September 2021, there simply aren't enough Democrats willing to break with the doctrine of liberal capitalism to make even a mildly social-democratic agenda a success. On the contrary, they have every incentive to make such an endeavor a leftism-discrediting failure. As in, the liberal consensus consensus would LOVE to say: shut up about a 15-dollar minimum wage, Bernie's failed administration the reason why we have President Tom Cotton.
- We're getting a fascist takeover sometime in the next couple of years. It will not be as bad as it could've been had the takeover happened 40 or even 20 years ago, mostly because fascism relies on a vital base of petit bourgeois to really inflict its terror. And, for better or for worse, the liberal-conservative consensus has reduced this hotbed of fascism to a rump as capitalism continues to reproletarianize workers and commoditize the economy. There are still some boat dealership and law firm partners out there, but they're nowhere as politically or militarily strong as they were just a few decades back. Let alone as during the 1930s. There will be fascist terror, of course, but it'll be largely indistinguishable from Reagan and Obama's brand of fascist terror. No jackboots, but the powers that be will lean on the courts to empower the police and statesec to squeeze our nuts a bit harder.