Probability: Elennsar MUST Read

[zeruslord]

I don't even know if I want the average attack hitting (but that being okay because your armor saves you) or not. Until that decision is made, picking a number doesn't do anything.

Figure out what the hell you want or stop wasting our time.

[Elennsar]

The only reason your time is being wasted is that you insist on me giving you the answer I want to that question before I know what answer I want.

If you want to help with the project I'm working on, then that is going to involve figuring out what that answer should be.

If you don't, then go off and ignore it.

Very, very, very simple.

[spasheridan]

ever see that dilbert where the chick sits down with the client and says

"OK, to make your software we need to write some specs. What would you like your software to do?"

The client looks at the chick and says

"Hrm, I don't know. Can we make the software tell me what I'd like it to do?"

And then the chick punches him the face.

[Roy]

ever see that dilbert where the chick sits down with the client and says

"OK, to make your software we need to write some specs. What would you like your software to do?"

The client looks at the chick and says

"Hrm, I don't know. Can we make the software tell me what I'd like it to do?"

And then the chick punches him the face.

*makes Bluff check to grasp the meaning of hidden messages*

Ok then, got it. I cast Summon Koumei IX. Go get him.

[Elennsar]

ever see that dilbert where the chick sits down with the client...

Yes, I have.

It doesn't apply here, however. I don't know what I want designed, and I'm not asking you to make stuff without knowing what I want.

[spasheridan]

If you don't know what you want designed, then what are you posting about.

It looks to me like you had something very specific in mind - a combat system that includes location specific attacks, defenses, and damage. You want every attacker to have a possible lethal attack option. You want shields to block, armor or toughness to soak, agility or speed to dodge. You want shields to block well and soaking head wounds difficult. Or is that what you used to want and now you want something else....

[Elennsar]

I don't know whether I want "50%" or "80%" or "30%" or whatever.

I know some of the elements I want, but I don't know how I want them to relate - is it okay for defense rolls to be hard because soak rolls are easy?

I don't know the answer to that. The fact I know I want both doesn't help much.

[opera]

And I don't have the first idea how many people will.

Again, you have just described a uniform probability distribution - a perfectly legitimate probability distribution which is used all the time in statistics, often for situations where a person is unable or unwilling to posit a more informative distribution. If you were to use that uniform distribution as part of a model, the model would not just be "guesswork," it would be an informed estimate of one possible distribution of likely outcomes.

At any rate, it seems to me that in this thread you clearly have two separate arguments, Elennsar: 1) if one doesn't have a completely clear idea of event likelihoods a priori, then trying to conduct any type of statistical modeling will be meaningless; and 2) if one doesn't have any idea of what sort of distribution you want for your ultimate variable of interest (for example, dying), then it's premature to start throwing probabilities together.

I am actually sympathetic to your second point, as I understand it (although it leaves me wondering why you are bothering to take the time discussing the statistics at all). Concerning the first point, however, you need to recognize that one can model the uncertainty you describe and formally incorporate it into the model; if later on you get better estimates or find reasons to reject that uniform probability distribution, then you can easily update and improve the model.

[spasheridan]

you want shields to block attacks often

you want dodging difficult

you want soaking head wounds hard

1) Shield block 80%

2) Dodging 50%

3) Soaking head wounds 10%

now make rules that aproximate that. if you do not like them change the goal posts or change the rules.

like writing an essay-

outline
first draft
edit
2nd draft
edit
rewrite
edit
final draft
edit
DONE

[Elennsar]

If you were to use that uniform distribution as part of a model, the model would not just be "guesswork," it would be an informed estimate of one possible distribution of likely outcomes.

And it would be guesswork whether or not that model has any possible relationship to what will actually happen. Insertnig in the formula that 50% of the people will drink poisoned wine may allow you to come up with an excellent set of statistics for what happens if that's the case - but the 50% is either informed or a guess.

At any rate, it seems to me that in this thread you clearly have two separate arguments, Elennsar: 1) if you don't have a completely clear idea of your event likelihoods a priori, then trying to conduct any type of statistical modeling will be meaningless; and 2) if you don't have any idea how you want sort of distribution you want for your ultimate variable of interest (e.g., dying), then it's premature to start throwing probabilities together.

Until you have some idea what numbers you're putting in, modeling how those numbers will interact does not produce information you can actually do something to achieve your goals with. It just produces information that IF something happens THEN something else happens - but if you don't know if the something else is something you want, finding out what that something is doesn't help.

although it leaves me wondering why you are bothering to take the time discussing the statistics at all

Because people are badgering me to "give us concrete numbers!"

I am trying to design something that works in a good and desirable way, but I'm not sure on the details of what would be desirable. I don't know if I want armor to protect you from most attacks. So figuring out how to make it do so is a waste of time.

I don't know if I want the PCs to generally be fighting rank and file opponents in large numbers (where the main danger is being unable to respond effectively to everyone and someone managing to slip an attack in) or something else.

[opera]

And it would be guesswork whether or not that model has any possible relationship to what will actually happen.

More accurately speaking, the question is how well that model comes to approximating reality. If you honestly have no idea about the likelihood of someone drinking the wine, then a uniform distribution with mean (0% + 100%)/2 = 50% is your best estimate, statistically speaking. If you want to argue that this is not the best estimate, then you need to argue that some distribution other than the uniform is a better choice. (Note that I am ignoring the possibility of using things like hierarchical models, which would allow for stuff like modeling the likelihood of events that might arise from multiple probability distributions - say, for example, a mix of a uniform and a normal distribution).

At any rate, I'm not trying to be combative or anything. Since you haven't decided on the basic structure of events in your game, then all this discussion is clearly academic. All I'm trying to say is this: the math will help you construct your game if you let it. Once you have an idea of the sequence of events, constructing a probability model will allow you to simulate outcomes and see how changes (for example, switching from a d4 to a d6 to a 2d6, or from a static soak roll to a probabilistic one) will impact the outcomes you are interested in. If you don't have much of an idea about the likelihood of events, then you can pick different plausible numbers and see which assumptions give you results that feel more acceptable, or identify numbers that give you unacceptable results.

[norms29]

I beleive I've identified a much more serious problem Elennsar, you have a serious bootstrap issue. you don't know what the mechanical processes will be, which is very reasonable at this stage for obvious reasons.
You don't know what the Inputs will be, also understandable, as the designer doesn't directly control the inputs.

But the serious issue is that you also deny knowldege of what the desired output will be. you literally have no goal here. This is a problem.

if you had an end goal then we could determine how to acheive it. if you had a particular process (the ruleset) you wished to use we could predict the outputs for given inputs, and determine likely inputs, this is essentially what the den has been doing with D&D. Hell, if you had some idea of the inputs we could probably connect processes one to one with outcomes.

but all you have currently is that you want UnknownFunction(UnknownVariable)=GIANT FROG

[Maxus]

I had a moment where I was considering making a thread for you, Elennsar, so we could list the various types of game-purposes.

For example, I'm writing Techno-Dungeon to try to get a sci-fi dungeon crawl where one can also play with making and using cool gear. So I'm going to need rules for technology--both making and using it--and rules for traps and obstacles.

Really, man, come up with some ideas for types of games that interest you, and we'll do our best to give an idea of what kind of system would work best for them.

[Koumei]

I cast Summon Koumei IX. Go get him.

Where are my goddamn pyrotechnics and entrance theme?

[TavishArtair]

I cast Summon Koumei IX. Go get him.

Where are my goddamn pyrotechnics and entrance theme?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVIlTJ6ebrU This is it, right? ( Unsafe if you do not wish your boss looking at you... funny. )

[CatharzGodfoot]

I cast Summon Koumei IX. Go get him.

Where are my goddamn pyrotechnics and entrance theme?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVIlTJ6ebrU This is it, right? ( Unsafe if you do not wish your boss looking at you... funny. )

Perhaps you were looking for this.

[Draco_Argentum]

but all you have currently is that you want UnknownFunction(UnknownVariable)=GIANT FROG

This.


I note that a lot of lurkers have come out of the woodwork and tried to help explain stats to Elennsar. Apparently we have some rather friendly and patient lurkers.

[norms29]

but all you have currently is that you want UnknownFunction(UnknownVariable)=GIANT FROG

This.

I note that a lot of lurkers have come out of the woodwork and tried to help explain stats to Elennsar. Apparently we have some rather friendly and patient lurkers

I'm not sure if your serious, or if you're being sarcastic because you think my giant frog accusations are being too harsh.

but all you have currently is that you want UnknownFunction(UnknownVariable)=GIANT FROG

This.

I'm not even sure if that was a question, or a declarative statement

[Roy]

I cast Summon Koumei IX. Go get him.

Where are my goddamn pyrotechnics and entrance theme?

*cuts to Ebla, fires Massacre gun at Elennsar* Better?

[Elennsar]

But the serious issue is that you also deny knowldege of what the desired output will be. you literally have no goal here. This is a problem.

I have a general goal - I haven't put enough thought into this (yet) to have a goal I can say anything that specific just yet. There are a variety of things that interact to lead to the goal for say, combat - and I'm not sure if I -want- armor to be more improtant than defense skill, or vice-versa. So of course I answer "I don't know".

So what I have currently is "working out what kind of thing I want to try and create" as the first step, not "now that I know exactly what I want to try and create, what's the best way to create it?"

Really, man, come up with some ideas for types of games that interest you, and we'll do our best to give an idea of what kind of system would work best for them.

First do your best to figure out that I'm trying to sort out in a thinking aloud sort of way what exactly that is.

If you want to help with the project, then deal with that. If you don't want to deal with that, that's on you.

Its kind of difficult to go from "I've an idea somewhat inspired by Dux Artorius (Arturius?)" to the details in one bound - there are several things floating around in there that I'm thinking about, some of which inspired by others - Alfred's struggle against the Vikings, say.

[spasheridan]

I have a general goal - I haven't put enough thought into this (yet) to have a goal I can say anything that specific just yet

Then why did you bring it up?

Are you simply saying "hey - wouldn't it be cool to have a campaign that simulates this kind of a story?"

If you can't or wont advance the discussion past that point then where is the discussion? Don't post every random thought that dribbles through your head, we have no desire to see your mental diarrhea

[Elennsar]

Because I have enough of an idea to want to get started, but not enough of an idea to be able to say "I know exactly how I want this to go".

Gee, who would have thought someone might try to figure out how things work while working on design, instead of knowing exactly how they want things to look in advance.

[Neeeek]

Because I have enough of an idea to want to get started, but not enough of an idea to be able to say "I know exactly how I want this to go".

Gee, who would have thought someone might try to figure out how things work while working on design, instead of knowing exactly how they want things to look in advance.

Here's where you are going wrong:

When people try to figure things out while working on design, they make decisions. It really doesn't matter at all if your decision is the right one because you can always change it later if it doesn't work out. The important thing is to just start choosing because it gives you something to work with. Don't like what you end up with? Change it up and try something else.

That's why everyone is so frustrated with you. You don't have a starting point, you have a sticking point.

[Elennsar]

No, everyone is frustrated because they demand that I define what I want before I know what I want, despite that being a highly unreasonable demand.

If someone wants to help, then they need to accept that this is at best the outline of an idea, which will be refined, not something complete with everything save numbers.

So if you're not willing to actually help with figuring out what to do, then don't claim you're willing to help but I'm "wasting your time", because the only person making you spend ANY time on it is YOU - so if you're not interested in the "still being worked out stage", then don't bother with it!

[NineInchNall]

No, everyone is so fucking frustrated because you refuse even to start the process.

Because I have enough of an idea to want to get started, but not enough of an idea to be able to say "I know exactly how I want this to go".

Put your money where your typing fingers are: What is it exactly that's bumping around in that mind of yours? Type it out. Zheezyz. It doesn't have to be the final fucking draft, for fuck's sake, it just has to be a starting point. But you keep refusing to use a starting point, instead objecting that because the ultimate goal has not been finalized, any current drafts are worthless, invalid, or what-the-fuck-have-you.

Damn it all, man! Get your starting point, start fucking around with it, get pissed off at it, change it, decide to go somewhere the fuck else entirely, and repeat process until you are sick of it or satisfied. Just don't keep defusing any attempt to actually fucking start the process.