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Kaelik
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Post by Kaelik »

fearsomepirate wrote:A more plausible scenario for this skill not mattering is if your DM always has the party in cramped spaces. If there are never any balconies, ledges, or chasms, this ability would be useless. If your DM is boring and uncreative, this would be a bad path to choose.
See, things like this make me despair. You are saying that a DM is boring and uncreative if they don't give a level 14 or higher party engagments with balconies and ledges.

That is fucking stupid, because level 14 parties should be having flying lazer battles in a field of colliding asteroids (that all happen to perfectly square) or swimming in a literally infinite ocean to assault a super fortress, or micromanageing a kingdom.

Not fucking flying up to a balcony with their cool balcony flight ability.

Red Hand of Doom has the level 6-8 party encounter a few balcony circumstances, and they feel kind of pathetic at those levels.
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Post by Username17 »

Insomniac wrote:Wow. Two adventure style books released when Paizo does APs monthly and has a years long backlog of them. They aren't even writing the freaking adventures themselves! How in the world do they think that is competitive?
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Some of it's diminished expectations. D&D went dark for a few years with no products at all. The chief executive of Hasbro is on record being surprised that D&D is selling considerably more than it was a year ago. When it didn't have any new products and hadn't had any new products for years.

And some of it is that the D&D Tabletop people don't even make RPGs, not really. They put the brand on Attack Wing sets and board games and shit. They aren't beating Pathfinder because they aren't even fighting Pathfinder. They've conceded the RPG market.

"D&D Sales" are driven not by game books, but by board games that have D&D branding on them. Which is why there aren't even any game books to buy.

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Post by Insomniac »

So the miniatures, board games and video game agreements are where all the focus is then? It certainly seems like it. 4E went dark after publishing less than half of the material promised and there wasn't something related to pen and paper Dungeons and Dragons for pretty close to 3 entire years.

Are they even losing if they aren't "playing the game?" How much of the pen and paper side is just a facade to keep the board game, miniatures, paperback books and video game agreements going?
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Post by RelentlessImp »

A better question is, 'How much does WotC really give a shit about D&D sales compared to Magic?'
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Post by Insomniac »

In the past 5 years, Magic the Gathering has increased by almost 200 percent. The last several blocks have been well-received moneymakers and smash hits. As pen and paper Dungeons and Dragons went underground for almost 3 years, Magic: The Gathering basically doubled its value.

Forbes has reported that Magic: The Gathering grew 182 percent from 2009 to 2014 and right now is an international smash hit valued at more than a quarter of a billion dollars.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... rowth.aspx

In 2013 alone, there were more than 600,000 Magic:The Gathering tournaments.

Anything Dungeons and Dragons is doing as a pen and paper, board game, miniatures line AND video game enterprise has got to pale in comparison. The totality of Dungeons and Dragons is substantially smaller than Magic: The Gathering Online, which is about 40 percent of Magic's value. Even at 40 percent, that makes it a 100 million dollar valued enterprise that makes millions every year. Dungeons and Dragons was promising to be a 40 or 50 million dollar valued enterprise with 4E. Even a goal that grandiose, were it achieved, would have meant that the totality of Dungeons and Dragons would be lesser than the online component of Magic.

HASBRO thinks Dungeons and Dragons right now are "Airheads." If Mike Mearls want to record Pip farting on a snare drum, so be it, so long as cardboard crack is flying off the shelves.

That is probably why they tolerated 4E being a dead edition in about 2011 and not putting out pen and paper product for 3 years, with a farcical "release schedule" of Mearls and Co. letting their fired friends moonlight on 5E while creating and publicly selling competing pen and paper RPG content. HASBRO just don't care.
Last edited by Insomniac on Sun May 10, 2015 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by erik »

Honestly trying to leverage D&D brand as a board game or minis line is a smarter play than as an RPG.

Much smarter obviously when they have no one in their employ who knows how to make a good RPG but even with good designers (which are hard for suits to identify) it is not going to be an earnings monster.

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Bigger than

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Tripling board and RPG sales did not matter to the owner

Post by Smeelbo »

Insomniac wrote:In the past 5 years, Magic the Gathering has increased by almost 200 percent. The last several blocks have been well-received moneymakers and smash hits. As pen and paper Dungeons and Dragons went underground for almost 3 years, Magic: The Gathering basically doubled its value.

Forbes has reported that Magic: The Gathering grew 182 percent from 2009 to 2014 and right now is an international smash hit valued at more than a quarter of a billion dollars.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... rowth.aspx

In 2013 alone, there were more than 600,000 Magic:The Gathering tournaments.
When I moved up to Sacramento to take care of my Mom, I almost immediately got hired by the local game store. At that time, I was done with Magic, and made that clear to the owner. In the first two years, I tripled the store's board game and role playing game sales. Armed with spread sheets demonstrating this, I fully expected my boss to be impressed. Instead, he wrote a number on a napkin (which I cannot share), which was his gross take on Magic singles for one year. My number was well under 1 per cent of that gross.

Since then, I have gotten back into Magic.

Magic players, and other CCG players are the only customers willing to pay good money to sit and play. We had a tournament a couple weeks ago, with about 40 players each paying $25 to play. Every day of the week, we run at least one CCG tournament, with entry fees of mostly $6-$12 per player.

In contrast, even at the height of D&D 4E, 4rries were the worst customers. They bought almost nothing other than sodas and occasional dice and miniatures, and instead of buying books, they exchanged pirated PDF's, even complaining that we did not provide WiFi to facilitate these exchanges. Needless to say, we no long provide them with table space, and instead the local D&D Meetup group roves from Denny's to Denny's like locusts, stripping good will towards gamers from public play spaces.

PathFinder books still continues to sell strongly, and the vast majority of campaigns "associated" with the store are PathFinder campaigns, both Adventure Paths and home brews.

Certainly I sell more D&D board games than actual 5E books.

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Post by OgreBattle »

How do other card games fare compare to mtg?
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Post by Username17 »

Smeelbo wrote:In contrast, even at the height of D&D 4E, 4rries were the worst customers. They bought almost nothing other than sodas and occasional dice and miniatures, and instead of buying books, they exchanged pirated PDF's, even complaining that we did not provide WiFi to facilitate these exchanges.
That's hardly surprising. RPGs have gotten too long in terms of wordcount, and 4th edition D&D and nWoD were The Worst Offenders. 4th edition D&D produced less than half the content that was promised, and in three years they still churned out considerably more words than the combined books of the Wheel of Time. People today read more than people of previous generations, but that's insane. Asking people to read over a million words a year to stay current in a game is an obvious non-starter.

And let's be brutally honest here: the 4e books had a content to filler ratio that was atrocious. And they had a usable content even lower than that. Divine Power was about a hundred thousand words, but two thirds of that is class powers for four classes. The rest of the book is almost entirely feats and epic destinies. There are only about 4 pages of the whole book that could plausibly be called worldbuilding, and it's a god list. Each god gets two paragraphs about them and then one paragraph discussing their relationship with each of the four character classes the book gives a shit about.
  • So let's break that down: you're an Avenger of Erathis. Divine Power is a book that is nominally about your character, and your character is pretty much not playable without it. You probably use about 3 of the powers in this book, two of the feats, and a total of 3 paragraphs of world building text. And... that's it. Using a space saving layout, you could get literally everything that book has to offer you down onto a 3x5 card. And that's for a character for whom this book is "extremely mandatory."
4e books were basically unusable as books. Players pretty much needed to use them as searchable pdfs because there was no other way to get at the information they needed to play the game. You couldn't take all the books to a game because they weighed over forty pounds. You couldn't read all the books straight through because 4th edition D&D is the longest book ever written in any language. Handily beating out Artamène ou le Grand Cyrus by being about twice as long.

The hilarious thing is that the amount of text you actually use out of a book like Divine Power is small enough that you can quote it in full without violating copyright. The actual usable content is so small that you could just print it in full as part of a review and it wouldn't even be copyright infringement. The bottom line is of course 4rries pirated sections of the rules on tablets rather than buying and hauling the books around. What the hell else were they supposed to do?

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Post by fearsomepirate »

Card games have a much lower barrier to entry than TTRPGs. The rules are simpler, the per-unit cost is lower, you don't have to play with the same people every time, and you don't have to play regularly. So of course they're going to be more popular.

Insider rendered the books meaningless. Why buy a $40 book when your $75 Insider account already gives you 100% of the content in a usable form? The only nice thing about the books was being able to see all the powers on one page.

That was how I felt. I bought the books used, but I didn't actually *need* them. I just like having the stack. Or did. I'm probably going to give away all my 4e stuff except Open Grave and the Eberron books.
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Post by rasmuswagner »

OgreBattle wrote:How do other card games fare compare to mtg?
In Copenhagen, there are no other CCGs than MTG. Sure, I know a few guys who still play L5R, and the occasional yu-gi-oh kid, but calling Magic 99% of the market is probably rounding down.

LCGs on the other hand are doing fine. Android and GoT have a solid, loyal customer base. But then again, they're handled by Fantasy Flight Games, the only professional RPG company around.
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Post by codeGlaze »

fearsomepirate wrote:Card games have a much lower barrier to entry than TTRPGs. The rules are simpler, the per-unit cost is lower, you don't have to play with the same people every time, and you don't have to play regularly. So of course they're going to be more popular.
So what about a 2 to 5 page booklet outlining a usable one-shot system? 2 to 5 pages with plenty of white space padding, and graphics, btw.

Everything in those 2 to 5 pages is pre-built from a more granular/modular system (like the d20 PHB), which is sold or provided like an expansion of the rules. A la the old basic sets of yore.
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Magic vs other CCG's

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In a typical week, we host a tournament each of Yugioh, Pokemon, Weiss Schwarz, Dragonball Z, and HeroClix, for a take about $250 in entry fees. Magic would be twice that, but for weeks with a special event, like a Preliminary Pro Tour Qualifer, pre-release, or the upcoming Modern Masters 2015, we can expect $25-$40 per player for an additional 20-40 players, or about another $1K in tournament fees.

These pale in significance to selling boosters and singles, and there Magic represents an even greater portion of those sales.

Frank is of course dead on regarding 4E books. When I DMed 4E for the store, I had to keep my books in the back of the store, because it was impractical to transport them to and from home on the bus every week.

I think the D&D-model of dozen or more books is over, with PathFinder representing the tail end of that. I much prefer what I call the Few-Book model, with a single Core which contains all that is needed to play, possibly a World book with setting details, and lastly a single Options book, with expansion material. With the exception of PathFinder, I am not interested in adventures for the RPGs I play.

So I think games like Burning Wheel and FATE represent the new model for RPGs. It may be the case that WotC has recognized this, but I think the lack of books is more a result of incompetence than any intentional strategy.

Magic is certainly the most thoroughly play-tested physical game ever. The development team is two years ahead of the published material, and they now rarely make significant mistakes in play balance.

While CCGs generally have a lower barrier to entry, Magic offers the option to get your money back, plus or minus profit, by selling cards. I spend almost no actual money on games at the store I work, but just trade in some of my older cards which I will never use.

The Insider account was essentially required to create and maintain character sheets.

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Post by Windjammer »

FrankTrollman wrote:So let's break that down: you're an Avenger of Erathis. Divine Power is a book that is nominally about your character, and your character is pretty much not playable without it. You probably use about 3 of the powers in this book, two of the feats, and a total of 3 paragraphs of world building text. And... that's it. Using a space saving layout, you could get literally everything that book has to offer you down onto a 3x5 card. And that's for a character for whom this book is "extremely mandatory."
That was my exact impression while I was still solely DM'ing and not playing 4e regularly. By the time I was, and my PCs were regularly clerics, my opinion of Divine Power changed. I thought the book was spectacular, esp. if you didn't chance across it at mid-campaign stage, at which point the things you could swap out were indeed limited, as were the things you could still opt in (like paragon paths).
But contrast that to starting a new character. I especially loved building characters from scratch for paragon level campaigns, and loved building those PCs without DDI. I'd restrict myself to three books always - 1. the book in which the PC class was published, 2. Adventurer's Vault, and 3. the Power splat (first generation) for that class. So, two examples:

Cleric: PH 1, AV, Divine Power
Bard: PH 2, AV, Arcane Power

Eye-balling for synergy effects between crunch elements from just these (respectively) three books was, and remains, a highly enjoyable exercise. Because the builds really shine once you complement your feat, gear, and power choices, and the three books are filled to the brim with them, you can (in theory, and in my experience) spend hours with the books to browse through them. Because they are filled with just that - feats, gear, powers. Now, admittedly you end up choosing only a small portion of that - Frank got that absolutely right - but on the way there you explore quite a bit.

Same for building bards, except that they are even more versatile if you played half-elves and their race based paragon path which let you pick powers from ANY class. Then you'd obviously need to reach beyond the main 3 books. But that was rather a special build, and most bard builds - e.g. the archer bard - wouldn't require going really beyond it. Of course, multi-classing and hybrid classing changed that too, but I'll ignore that for now.

So why was this experience, and my enjoyment with the Power books, so unusual, even among my rather narrow circle of acquaintances of active 4e gamers? (Nevermind the online community.) Because our group ignored the mess of the DDI errata stream. We played with de facto errata, as published at the end of PH 2. We hand picked errata for the worst loopholes on powers and (especially) AV items. (AV remains the single most errated book throughout 4e's run.) But by ignoring DDI, we did not just ignore the errata bloat - we also happily ignored the class-related crunch bloat coming out of half baked articles in Dragon. (Yay, 20 more powers for the fighter class. Every two months.)

So I guess Frank's argument stands, if for a reason he did not even care to mention. 4e's books didn't simply have small return of investment because, to existing PCs mid-career with their builds set in stone, you could at best get 3 feats and 2 items out of a new Power book.

Much, much worse, you knew that 2 months in, WotC would errata the hell out of each new book, AND errata the hell out of any nice synergy effect you'd discovered beyond the new material and the old. Esp. AV, which kept getting updates until I know not. Or take the cleric class in PH 1 - my favourite - which Essentials shat on, and rewrote in large parts, for no other reason than to say 'this class is too well designed compared to the shit we are shivelling out now'. They literally rewrote a 2008 class two years into the game because later material made it 'mandatory'.

So nobody bothered with books because their half life was literally 1-2 months, and up to 2 years into their life cycle a single class (or sometimes power) could get errated 3 to 4 times. Sometimes the errata was redacted. Sometimes they were overwritten. Whatever. All of this was nothing like D&D previously where, once an errata appeared for Player's Guide to Faerun, you knew they were done with errating and you could henceforth consult the book in peace.

Rather, errata were an ongoing thing. And the 4e crowd caught wind of that right out of the gate. That's why the books didn't sell. DDI was basically like the DM who told you 'you may have bought this book, but whether, how, when, and what part of it applies will change at my game table every other month'. That delegated the campaign relevance, from a player perspective, of those books to 'reading material' - a level at which they failed abysmally.

Sorry for the long post, but Divine Power remains next to PH 2 one of my absolute favourite books across 4e's run, and I wanted to write why. As I hope to have made clear, I don't think my reasons generate very widely beyond the group I played in.

Edit. The other point of my post was to say how long and much it took our group to come up with a way to relate to 4e the game and book series in a way that didn't suck out all joy of them. We basically had to ignore the advise the WotC crowd was giving them in instructing its readership. In retrospect, the books were not simply bad themselves (more often than not). I feel WotC failed to develop a business model where selective use of the books was rewarded or even made possible.
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Post by fearsomepirate »

codeGlaze wrote:
fearsomepirate wrote:Card games have a much lower barrier to entry than TTRPGs. The rules are simpler, the per-unit cost is lower, you don't have to play with the same people every time, and you don't have to play regularly. So of course they're going to be more popular.
So what about a 2 to 5 page booklet outlining a usable one-shot system? 2 to 5 pages with plenty of white space padding, and graphics, btw.

Everything in those 2 to 5 pages is pre-built from a more granular/modular system (like the d20 PHB), which is sold or provided like an expansion of the rules. A la the old basic sets of yore.
Sounds like you're talking about bloating up the rules with continuous expansions, which seems to me what ultimately kills off any RPG that goes that route.

MTG happened when stamp-collecting and whist got together and made a baby. It's the stamp-collecting aspect that keeps that revenue stream going forever. I just don't think stamp-collecting can be shoehorned into TTRPGs, which is why they'll never generate as much revenue as card games. Which is fine. Really, a good game shouldn't have to change its rules every few years. Axis & Allies doesn't. The model they're going with now, publishing new adventures every few months, seems like it could last a long time if they maintain quality.
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Post by Username17 »

I don't think that selling people multiple books is implausible in the modern era. It just has to be a small enough number of books that people can actually read them, and the books have to be packed with enough content that people actually want to. And I don't mean crunch (although obviously some of it is going to be crunchy), I mean content.

Basically the model you're looking for is mid-nineties World of Darkness. Short books coming out monthly that are mostly storyline, art with nipples in it, and attitude. Content isn't just feats to dumpster dive through, it's anything people actually want to read. You're getting people to read the books because they want to read the books. And that means that you're appealing to the kinds of people that would read comic books or the old Dungeon Magazine.

What this means is that in order to get people to buy these books, you need a continuity that people care about being familiar with. And since this is the 21st century and people can get reviews for things online before they even arrive in the store, you need to have some quality writing. The sad fact of the matter is that the game design community is incestuous and shallow enough that there are probably only a handful of writers working in it whose work rises above "marginal" for such a project to fly.

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Post by Night Goat »

5e fanboys keep saying that the "publish a fuckton of books" model doesn't work anymore, but that's exactly what Pathfinder is doing and they're making a lot of money. I really don't want that much bloat from a game, but it's better than 5e's strategy of producing absolutely fuck all for anyone except the subset of DMs who don't want to make their own adventures.
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Post by hogarth »

Night Goat wrote:5e fanboys keep saying that the "publish a fuckton of books" model doesn't work anymore, but that's exactly what Pathfinder is doing and they're making a lot of money.
I think it works fine for a company as long as you leave a big gap between editions. The only problem is then: how does your company stay afloat during that big gap? Massive layoffs?
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Post by PhoneLobster »

Night Goat wrote:5e fanboys keep saying that the "publish a fuckton of books" model doesn't work anymore, but that's exactly what Pathfinder is doing and they're making a lot of money.
Pathfinder's rules however are also available free in an online searchable format.

Something that not only doesn't hurt their sales but which I am convinced is a VERY major component of their success.

I remain absolutely... I don't know, not quiet perplexed, not quiet outraged, certainly fairly disappointed? That D&D proper came so near (but so far) with the 3.x SRD and even the horrible paid 4E service and seems to now have totally backed away from what would appear to be one of the most obvious and basic pre-requisites for success any modern larger RPG rule set MUST meet.

All because what? The greedy dumbasses don't grasp that the free promotional utility of it makes for more sales than it loses them? Even when the flat out evidence of that effect in practice is staring them right in the face with their own prior editions and now their main competitor?
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Post by Insomniac »

I just remember as a kid having these backpacks bulging with hardcovers. Just the PHB, the DMG and a Monster Manual or 2 and another supplemental book is 1100+ pages of hardcover material. Those backpacks got pretty heavy as the edition dragged on and on.

Kids these days with their smartphones and laptops and free wifi and computerized dice rollers...get off my lawn!

Edit: OGL made Dungeons and Dragons the biggest thing in gaming and d20 the dominant system for the past 15 years. But HASBRO always resented it and quashed it. Your loss, suckers.

But they are too busy with 100 Dollar Bill Printing Press: The Gathering to care about anything else WOTC does now.
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Post by codeGlaze »

codeGlaze wrote:
fearsomepirate wrote:Card games have a much lower barrier to entry than TTRPGs. The rules are simpler, the per-unit cost is lower, you don't have to play with the same people every time, and you don't have to play regularly. So of course they're going to be more popular.
So what about a 2 to 5 page booklet outlining a usable one-shot system? 2 to 5 pages with plenty of white space padding, and graphics, btw.

Everything in those 2 to 5 pages is pre-built from a more granular/modular system (like the d20 PHB), which is sold or provided like an expansion of the rules. A la the old basic sets of yore.
fearsomepirate wrote: Sounds like you're talking about bloating up the rules with continuous expansions, which seems to me what ultimately kills off any RPG that goes that route.
Yes/No.
I think Frank was correct in his suggestion of a model that released less per yer, but had more content per release.

So less shitty fluff, more interesting world building / adventure seeds / etc. And items / feats / classes / races built off of the interesting content.

More like content updates, less like desperate cash grabs.
Admittedly some of my favorite books were the 3.x Forgotten Realms books that had cool art and interesting locales.
Last edited by codeGlaze on Mon May 11, 2015 2:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Whipstitch »

FrankTrollman wrote: You're getting people to read the books because they want to read the books. And that means that you're appealing to the kinds of people that would read comic books or the old Dungeon Magazine.

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Smeelbo wrote: I much prefer what I call the Few-Book model, with a single Core which contains all that is needed to play, possibly a World book with setting details, and lastly a single Options book, with expansion material.
Yeah, I've had many a conversation touching on these two opposing interests before due to Shadowrun's old shadow talker and in-world document approach to exposition. Having long screeds featuring mercenary adventurers nerding out over gear and talking shop can obviously be really evocative and help attract people to the brand in the first place but it's a bit of a double edged sword given that excess material can be a serious detriment when it comes time to get people to sit down and shut up long enough to finish a character sheet.
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Post by DSMatticus »

I do not think "too many books" has ever killed a brand. I don't think it has ever even managed to successfully kill an edition. 3.5 and PF are still going strong. Obviously, content bloat drives away some non-zero number of people who would have kept buying your products. And it also puts out more product for the people who haven't jumped ship yet to buy. There's definitely a needle there to thread, and there's a definitely a point at which you just want to reboot and do everything all over again except different and hopefully better.
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Post by fearsomepirate »

From the company's perspective, an edition is dead if sales have dropped off to the point of no return. I may be wrong, but I think 3.5 undersold 3.0, and subsequent expansions sold less and less.

It seems to me, based purely on observing the shelf at the game shop, that Paizo has focused a lot more on releasing inexpensive modules. Online chatter suggests to me that their new feats, spells, and class options passed the critical bloat point a long time ago and have become more headache than help.

I think this is the way to go. I think WotC is doing the right thing by releasing modules that lie somewhere between totally open-ended settings and linear adventure paths rather than endless lists of new, game-breaking feats.

That said, it still won't generate the gross revenue card games do.
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Post by rasmuswagner »

It just struck me that you could set things up so that the content threadmill grinds out character options that can't be chosen at character creation, only in post-creation play.
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