[Non-US] News That Makes You laugh/cry/neither...

[PhoneLobster]

The chance for the left was to get behind (and go through with) Grexit.

In the UK things are... different. But not so much because the local nazis want exit, that was the same in Greece since forever. It's just flat out a different situation all round.

I think strategically the best thing the left, or more specifically Labor, could have done is just NOT come out with an official position. No pro-Brexit, no pro-Remain. No campaigning on the matter at all. If cornered on the topic, and they would be, party line should have been a party policy of abstaining from the debate and the campaign to the point of not even campaigning for voters to abstain.

They should have left this to be nothing but an embarrassing mess between the right and the right and ONLY talked up how much better things would be under a labor government regardless and how things will be bad under tories regardless.

As it is putting your eggs in the same basket as Cameron is probably NEVER a good idea and they are just expending political capital and accepting vast political risk for no direct benefit to the party or the nation.

[Username17]

I get the sense that the perspective of the left is to 'Repeal and Replace,' to borrow a phrase, the EU. The right-wing UKIP position is just to repeal the EU entirely. So beyond the differences in reasoning and ideology, the ultimate end goals are vastly different.

Not only are the end goals vastly different, but there's actually no point in going through with the "repeal" portion to advance leftist ideology at all. Just like you can advance health coverage towards universal healthcare by tweaking and expanding Obamacare rather than by repealing it and replacing it with something else that's hopefully better.

For example, let's look at hyzmarca's plan:

Step 1: Leave the EU.
Step 2: Pay off Greece's debt on the condition that the give up the Euro and switch to the British pound.
Step 3: Lure Greece and other economically weak EU countries into leaving the EU and joining an alternative UK-led economic union with the pound sterling as the standard currency and the Bank of England as the central bank.

That step 2 would be a pretty radical step, and a potentially reasonable one. HM Treasury has consistently done better with monetary policy than the ECB has. Declaring pound sterling to be a new Euro with blackjack and hookers is something that has the potential to work. Personally, I don't think it would work very well. The pound is still the Great British Pound, and I don't think HM Treasury would any more tolerate above target inflation in the United Kingdom to reduce unemployment in Portugal than the ECB accepts above target inflation in Germany for the same thing.

But even if that was going to be a thing you did, what does leaving the EU get you? There's nothing stopping you from evangelizing the Pound right now. If you think you can pull an end run around the ECB by using a non-Euro national currency as the new currency of Europe, you can just do that. Dollars and Pounds and Swiss Francs already exist, if you can get people to agree to treat one of them as real international currencies the EU can't and won't stop you from doing that, whether you're a member or not. So again and still, there's no point in starting with the catastrophic position of "quit the EU." Whatever big changes and advancements you think you can manage, just start with that.

Advocate for improvements. Don't advocate for chaos with the hope that improvements might shake out sometime in the future.

My sense of what the left ought to do is to develop a comprehensive plan of what EU 2.0 (or whatever) would look like and then try to sell that. At the same time, develop some plausible political mechanism wherein countries could vote to withdraw into the new system, and thereby remain in the EU until some critical mass of countries had all voted to seamlessly transition to the new system. If you did that, you might even be able to co-opt the right wing into symbolically supporting exit to the new system votes. Including some real immigration reform into the new compact would help a lot.

Again and still, if you have a comprehensive EU 2.0 plan, you don't have to "withdraw" into it. It'll just be a new treaty that countries can sign that will supersede whatever parts of the old treaties you can get people to agree to. Any progress you want to make can be defined as moving forward rather than backward.

As for "Immigration Reform," the problem there is that immigration isn't actually a problem. Immigrants are presently unpopular in the UK, and that's scary as shit. But that's because the right wing media has successfully used migrants as an all-purpose boogeyman, but there legitimately isn't a problem there. The twenty thousand Syrian refugees the UK intends to settle in the UK are statistically insignificant. You could like your whole life in the UK and never meet one of those Syrian immigrants. The Poles and Romanians who come to the UK to work are a net benefit to the economy and pay more taxes than they cost in services. If you meet an immigrant in a UK hospital they are more likely to be treating you than taking your space in the queue.

The problem then is twofold: firstly a simple messaging problem. The Daily Mail has pretty much successfully demonized immigrants and the left has been pretty weak at sticking up for people who can't even vote. And the second is that the economy of Europe and the UK are still running well below potential and that makes people feel less generous to otherized people and also makes them look for scapegoats to blame for their problems.

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[/img]

Front pages like this create the common understanding that something "needs to be done" to reduce immigration, but the truth is that the UK could easily absorb several times as many immigrants as they do and the economy would be improved by providing more services to immigrants rather than less.

In the long run, the Eurozone needs to get its economy together, and doing so would automatically have lots of Spanish and Portuguese immigrants up and leave the UK. But while that would be a good thing over all, it wouldn't actually improve the UK's economy or make the NHS' nursing crisis any better.

-Username17

[DSMatticus]

Putting the EU 2.0 into effect overtop of the EU would require unanimous support among the member states. I don't know how the fuck you plan to do that, especially when you've declared upfront that leaving intransigent assholes behind (by withdrawing) is off the table. "Germany, if you won't agree to these comprehensive reforms which will make it harder for you to wave your dick around, then we'll just have to keep doing things your way and see how you like that." If you aren't willing to put exit on the table, then the first step in your reform plan is "wait for the current German political environment to implode, and hope that something more reasonable takes its place." At that point you may as well admit that your plan is "this shit is hard, let's let our grandchildren deal with it." It's not a realistic plan. It's just the declaration that you're going to sit on your hands until things get better on their own.

Any actual reform is going to be achieved through (optimistically) the threat of exit or (pessimistically) the dissolution of the EU. That's the only bargaining chip you have against people who won't sign their name on your reforms; "we're going to do this with or without you, your call." And I think the Greek fiasco and the current state of affairs makes it obvious that the threat of exit alone isn't actually a powerful bargaining chip. The rightwing has no interest in preserving the integrity of the EU; their only interest is in exploiting it for their own gain. You can't convince them to abandon the latter by threatening to hurt the former because they don't care. Internal reform is either a stupid goal or a longterm goal, or possibly even a stupid longterm goal. The EU is designed to not be democratically reformable and it won't be. The unity at any cost faction is never going to achieve any significant political gains because they've declared upfront that their demands are toothless.

[Username17]

And I think the Greek fiasco and the current state of affairs makes it obvious that the threat of exit alone isn't actually a powerful bargaining chip.

You're getting there. See, the threat of exit isn't a bargaining chip at all. If you exit, then they win. A leftwing government threatening to exit is just saying "If you don't do what we want, we'll set fire to our economy and allow you to dictate trade terms to us." All the right wing has to say is "Please proceed."

If any one country leaves the EU, the remaining EU can and presumably will make it go very badly for them. Which not only will make all the other penguins on the ice flow wary of jumping off, it also strengthens the hand of whoever is currently in power in EU. If Portugal leaves the EU tomorrow, they suffer horrendously and then Germany gets to make any fucking crazy demands they want on the rest of the EU.

The only way leaving the EU is at all appealing is if the mass suffering of your population isn't a problem for you. Like, if you're a hard core fascist/Trumpeteer to begin with and you see the mass suffering of people in your country as a positive development. If you're seriously willing to simply add 10 points to unemployment and drop GDP per capita by 20% in order to get out from under the European Declaration of Human Rights, then leaving the EU is a reasonable move to make. If your problem with the EU is some sort of technical complaint about the proper inflation level in the Eurozone, then that kind of disruption is simply not a reasonable step to take.

Putting the EU 2.0 into effect overtop of the EU would require unanimous support among the member states.

Yes. And that's why you're never going to get it. But individual reforms don't take unanimity. They don't even have to apply to the entire European Union. The Shengen Agreement started with 5 of 10 countries and now it's most of the EU (but still not all of it). That is the model for positive change in the European Union. You get however many countries are willing to sign on to your improvement, and then you just fucking do it for those countries, with the hope that some years down the line you'll be able to get other countries with new liberal governments to sign on.

The tact for institutional reform is even easier. The Governing Council for the European Central Bank is simply 25 people. And 19 of them are directly appointed by the democratic governments of the 19 Eurozone countries. If you can elect sensible governments in 13 Eurozone countries, you can have the ECB do something sensible no matter what the executives want or say. It's just that simple. Win elections with positive ideas and you get to implement positive ideas. Nothing good comes from not winning elections and then trying to flip over the table.

-Username17

[Kaelik]

Oh goody, we are back to "Frank Trollman from a year ago was a filthy trumpist who reveled at the thought of poor people's deaths, and we know this because he advocated a leftist issue and how Greece could save it's people from austerity bullshit, and anyone who is anti-austerity bullshit is clearly a trumpist monster."

I was wondering when we'd get back around to that.

[hyzmarca]

Step 1: Leave the EU.
Step 2: Pay off Greece's debt on the condition that the give up the Euro and switch to the British pound.
Step 3: Lure Greece and other economically weak EU countries into leaving the EU and joining an alternative UK-led economic union with the pound sterling as the standard currency and the Bank of England as the central bank.

That step 2 would be a pretty radical step, and a potentially reasonable one. HM Treasury has consistently done better with monetary policy than the ECB has. Declaring pound sterling to be a new Euro with blackjack and hookers is something that has the potential to work. Personally, I don't think it would work very well. The pound is still the Great British Pound, and I don't think HM Treasury would any more tolerate above target inflation in the United Kingdom to reduce unemployment in Portugal than the ECB accepts above target inflation in Germany for the same thing.

But even if that was going to be a thing you did, what does leaving the EU get you? There's nothing stopping you from evangelizing the Pound right now. If you think you can pull an end run around the ECB by using a non-Euro national currency as the new currency of Europe, you can just do that. Dollars and Pounds and Swiss Francs already exist, if you can get people to agree to treat one of them as real international currencies the EU can't and won't stop you from doing that, whether you're a member or not. So again and still, there's no point in starting with the catastrophic position of "quit the EU." Whatever big changes and advancements you think you can manage, just start with that.

It gets you hegemony. Right now, Great Britain shares the EU's big boy pants with France and Germany. In the hypothetical British EU with Blackjack and Hookers and no Frogs or Krauts allowed, Britain would be the sole Great Power and would thus have a great deal more leverage over the smaller countries. If you want to return to the glory days of the British Empire, it's a start. A small start, but a start none the less.

But this is less making things better immediately and more opening gambit in a multi-decade plan to conquer Europe.

[Username17]

Oh goody, we are back to "Frank Trollman from a year ago was a filthy trumpist who reveled at the thought of poor people's deaths, and we know this because he advocated a leftist issue and how Greece could save it's people from austerity bullshit, and anyone who is anti-austerity bullshit is clearly a trumpist monster."

I was wondering when we'd get back around to that.

Question for the table: is Kaelik a charlatan or a crank?

I advocated (and still advocate) Greece to withdraw from the Euro, and start printing its own sovereign currency. On account of how they are insolvent and will never stop being insolvent unless and until the debts get defaulted on or the currency gets devalued or both, so you might as well get it over with. That is a purely technical matter, and the choice is pretty clear. The fact that Syrzia was bluffing and had no plan to issue Drachmas if negotiations broke down was a huge mistake on the part of the Grecian Left.

But that's not the same as withdrawing from the European Union. The fact that the Euro is not the same as the European Union and you can have one without the other is a pretty big fucking deal. In fact, it's so big of a deal that anyone who claims to have anything to say about European Union policy and doesn't know that is a crank.

But Kaelik just made a claim that crucially depends on those two being the same thing. Presumably he knows the difference and is just being a charlatan - deliberately conflating two incredibly different things for rhetorical effect.

Because issuing Drachmas and revaluing Greek public debt in the new currency (withdrawing from the Euro) is in no way the same thing as canceling the right to work, medical treatment, and vote for all the Bulgarians and Cypriots living in Greece right now (withdrawing from the EU). And anyone who claims otherwise, as Kaelik just did, is either a charlatan or a crank. So the question to the table: which one is Kaelik?

And for all the people in the cheap seats: Grexit and Brexit are different proposals. Grexit was the prospect of Greece exiting the Euro currency, while Brexit is the prospect of Britain leaving the entire European Union.

-Username17

[Kaelik]

"The treaties indeed confirm what we have been saying here: the treaty doesn't foresee an exit from the euro zone without exiting the EU, so indeed that is the current situation," European Commission spokeswoman Karolina Kottova said.

The comment was in response to a question about the provisions the EU treaties make for a country to leave the euro, but the spokeswoman did not refer to a particular member state.

It certainly seems like the European Commission thinks they are same (also Angela Merkel and then President Sarkozy.)

Like yeah, technically as long as Germany totally agrees to let Greece leave the Euro without leaving the EU, then they could totally do that. But last I checked, 1000000% of the problem is that Germany wants other people on the Euro so they can fuck them.

So your new claim that apparently Germany will literally destroy the UK, the country who could actually engage with it on some equal terms, for leaving the EU (but not at all hurting their economic bottom line) but will totally not get mad at Greece at all for breaking the treaties that specifically are linked, and will just continue giving them all the benefits without any of the costs, even though this actually hurts Germany kind of alot.

Spoiler alert Frank, when you break treaties, you don't get to sue on the rest of the treaty you broke, so the hypothetical "Greece declares that it will not abide by the treaties it signed when it doesn't want to, but promises to be extra damn double sure that everyone else still has to abide by the treaties as it regards anything that hurts Greece" is absolutely nonsense that you made up in your own head, and not only wouldn't happen, but literally couldn't happen without unanimous agreement amongst EU countries to either modify the treaty, or all agree to not change a single thing with respect to Greece.

[hyzmarca]

It certainly seems like the European Comission thinks they are same (also Angela Merkel and then President Sarkozy.)

The European Commission are idiots who don't know how the EU works. So are Merkel and Sarkozy.

Obviously, they aren't the same. Because the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is not in the Eurozone.

[Kaelik]

It certainly seems like the European Commission thinks they are same (also Angela Merkel and then President Sarkozy.)

The European Commission are idiots who don't know how the EU works. So are Merkel and Sarkozy.

Obviously, they aren't the same. Because the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is not in the Eurozone.

Learn how to read you idiot.

"Leaving the Eurozone" is the same as "Leaving the EU" according to the European Commission and Angela Merkel and Sarkozy.

Not being in them in the first place. This is a really easy principle to understand, when you break one part of a treaty, you don't get to keep the other parts you like.

Like, basic reading comprehension would allow you to figure that this is the claim I was responding to:

Because issuing Drachmas and revaluing Greek public debt in the new currency (withdrawing from the Euro) is in no way the same thing as withdrawing from the EU.

[hyzmarca]

This is a really easy principle to understand, when you break one part of a treaty, you don't get to keep the other parts you like.

Yes you do.

America does it all the fucking time and never suffers any consequences for it.

[DSMatticus]

You're getting there. See, the threat of exit isn't a bargaining chip at all. If you exit, then they win. A leftwing government threatening to exit is just saying "If you don't do what we want, we'll set fire to our economy and allow you to dictate trade terms to us." All the right wing has to say is "Please proceed."

I'm sorry, but the only people who think exit would cause the sort of damage you are predicting are fearmongering cranks. The people who latched onto Reinhart-Rogoff because it told them what they wanted to hear while ignoring its many critics were assholes, and you are, at this point, no better than those assholes. Convenience is not the measure of a source's worth. Actual predictions of damage are fairly mild, and certainly nowhere near destabilizing or catastrophic.

Similarly, your prediction that the neoliberals will take a stand against free trade in order to punish leaving member states in the name of solidarity is... fucking insane. Germany's behind doors ultimatum to Greece was "cave, or default and GTFO. Yes, caving will destroy your economy. You should default and GTFO." These people do not give a shit about solidarity to begin with. They set fire to the EU in the name of greed, they are willing to kick members out in the name of greed, and they will be completely willing to sign new treaties in the name of greed. Their corporate sponsors do not want trade barriers and they will not support trade barriers. You have zero understanding of the right's motivations. And that's fucking baffling, because they're obvious. I'm pretty sure it's just selective forgetfulness where right now you pretend the right are something they're not because it's convenient for your argument.

The right actually wins if they can preserve the status quo. Terrible monetary policy will continue to push debt up and then as shocks happen naturally (as shocks do) they will circle the crisis like vultures demanding deregulation and privatization. And for a variety of reasons preserving the status quo is even more the default position in the EU than it is in the U.S. Senate (more on that later).

Yes. And that's why you're never going to get it. But individual reforms don't take unanimity. They don't even have to apply to the entire European Union. The Shengen Agreement started with 5 of 10 countries and now it's most of the EU (but still not all of it). That is the model for positive change in the European Union. You get however many countries are willing to sign on to your improvement, and then you just fucking do it for those countries, with the hope that some years down the line you'll be able to get other countries with new liberal governments to sign on.

This is incredibly disingenuous. The EU has exclusive authority over certain policy areas that makes superseding the EU in those areas (with anything less than unanimous support) a violation of treaty. When the Schengen rules were first being written, the EU had no (or very limited) authority over internal border controls and the Schengen rules were not a violation of treaty - they were a separate and parallel agreement entirely, not even part of the EU. In later treaties, the Schengen rules were folded into the EU and members who did not want to sign on were given explicit opt-outs. As such, any amendment to those rules would now have to go through the EU government (as fucked as it is) and apply to all member states (with the exception of more opt-outs).

To put it in terms of the United States government, you're basically arguing that the federal government can be salvaged because in a specific policy area where the federal goverment has no power some states got together to write their own interstate compacts. Basically you're arguing that the Great Lakes Commission is proof of how well the U.S. Senate works. It's gibberish. To give you a concrete example of how little you understand, how about the euro? It would absolutely be a violation of treaty for members to piecemeal walk off the euro in favor of the euro 2.0. By EU law, if you weren't given an opt-out the euro must be your country's sole legal tender. (Hint: this is why everything you are saying about the Greek drachma is fucking stupid. That would be a violation of treaty. Greece does not have an opt-out and must use the euro as their sole legal tender. This is part of the treaties they've signed to remain a member of the EU. They could issue drachmas, but they would have no legal standing to do and it would be the political equivalent of "come at me bro.")

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So, let's talk about how hard it actually is to reform the EU.

The European Commission is the EU's sole executive body. That means it's their job to make sure the decisions of the EU are upheld. But oddly, they are also the only branch of the EU government with the power of legislative initiative. That means all legislation must be introduced by the European Commission, full stop. How bad is that? Well, the good news is that it only takes a majority of commissioners to get a proposal out of the commission. The bad news is that the commission has 28 members - one per state - and not a single fucking one of them was elected to their position. They are all nominated directly by their respective governments. Once a full 28 have been nominated, the commission must be approved (as a whole) by the European Parliament. If they are not approved, then you have to replace whoever made the Parliament unhappy and try again. Furthermore, the President of the Commission has the authority to assign portfolios to individual commissioners, which restricts their powers to a certain realm of policy, which is obviously a great way to castrate any pesky reformists who manage to sneak in. So who chooses the President? Well, the President is chosen by the European Council and then has to be accepted by the European Parliament.

The European Council is just the heads of state from each of the member states. As of right now, passing something through the European Council requires three things: 1) a two-thirds majority (sometimes only a simple majority), 2) supporting members must represent 62% of the EU population, and 3) supporting members must hold 74% of the EU's voting weights (arbitrary numbers assigned to each member state based on how well they rolled their diplomacy check during treaty negotiations). Technically these are the old rules and have been replaced, but any member state can request that these rules be used instead of the current ones, so... they haven't actually been replaced. The European Council doesn't have a lot of direct administrative power.

The European Parliament is directly elected by the people of the EU, but seats are not assigned to countries proportionally. France has a hundred times the population of Luxembourg, yet only ten times the seats. So when people say the European Parliament is the democratic part of the EU, that deserves either a giant asterisk or a lengthy lecture about what democracy actually fucking means - I'll leave the choice up to you. Also, turnout for European Parliament elections is... not great. It only requires a simple majority to get something through parliament, but as previously mentioned the Parliament does not have the power of legislative initiative - meaning that in practice they can only threaten to veto things that come out of the commission if they don't like them, and use that threat to negotiate amendments to those things.

The Council of the European Union is the second part of the EU's bicameral legislature. No, it's not the same thing as the European Council. Despite not actually being the European Council, its structure is almost identical to the European Council's. One minister per member state - from the member's executive cabinet - for 28 total. It requires the same sort of qualified majority I described above. Again, since it doesn't have the power of legislative initiative, it can really only veto things that come out of the commission until it gets things it wants.

After that there's some courts, but let's just forget that and run through a hypothetical. You want to get leftwing reform through the EU. What do you need?

1) You need control of the executive branches of 15 of the 28 member states (50%+1). This is required to give you a majority on the commission.

2) The 15+ member states whose executive branches you control need to have a populaton which adds up to 62% of the EU's. That's more than half, so you're going to need support from the bigger countries, not the smaller ones.

3) The 15+ member states whose executive branches you control need to have voting weights which add up to 74% of the EU's. Voting weights favor smaller countries, so you're going to need support from the smaller countries, not the bigger ones.

4) Wow, 2 and 3 are a real bitch together, aren't they? You need the big guys for their population and you need the little guys for their weights. I guess in practice that just means you need way more than a simple majority to get anything done.

5) You're going to need control of the European Parliament. This is actually the easiest part. It's directly elected (even if not proportionally), and steps 1-4 assume a leftwing sweep across at least two-thirds of Europe. So how far away are we from achieving this? The largest party in the European Parliament is the centre right (Christian democrat, conservative) EPP. Altogether, right-wing parties currently hold 413/751 seats. The largest left-wing party is a part of the current ruling right-wing coalition, because of course it is, so whether or not they and their 190 seats can even be counted as pro-reform is, itself, debatable. It's the easiest part, and yet it's still so fucking far away.

[hyzmarca]

This is incredibly disingenuous. The EU has exclusive authority over certain policy areas that makes superseding the EU in those areas (with anything less than unanimous support) a violation of treaty. When the Schengen rules were first being written, the EU had no (or very limited) authority over internal border controls and the Schengen rules were not a violation of treaty - they were a separate and parallel agreement entirely, not even part of the EU. In later treaties, the Schengen rules were folded into the EU and members who did not want to sign on were given explicit opt-outs. As such, any amendment to those rules would now have to go through the EU government (as fucked as it is) and apply to all member states (with the exception of more opt-outs).

Here is the thing. The EU doesn't have an army. So it doesn't matter what the rules. Without the ability to enforce the rules, there are no rules. Unless the EU has the power to send an army into Britain and enforce compliance with the treaty, the treaty is so much toilet paper. And it doesn't.

So if Britain, the only country in Europe with a Supercarrier and one of the only two with nukes, decides to amend the treaty, who the fuck is going to stop them?

Unless France sends troops to the Chunnel, the answer to that is no one. And the Chunnel can be collapsed.

To put it in terms of the United States government, you're basically arguing that the federal government can be salvaged because in a specific policy area where the federal goverment has no power some states got together to write their own interstate compacts.

The situations aren't comparable, because the limits of Federal power were tested and clearly defined by a little scuffle in the 1860s. The EU government can't win a civil war. Ergo, it's a paper tiger and it's authority is meaningless.

That would be a violation of treaty. Greece does not have an opt-out and must use the euro as their sole legal tender. This is part of the treaties they've signed to remain a member of the EU. They could issue drachmas, but they would have no legal standing to do and it would be the political equivalent of "come at me bro.")

"Come at me, bro" is a perfectly reasonable move when you know what bro is neither willing nor able to come at you.

[Kaelik]

Here is the thing. The EU doesn't have an army. So it doesn't matter what the rules. Without the ability to enforce the rules, there are no rules. Unless the EU has the power to send an army into Britain and enforce compliance with the treaty, the treaty is so much toilet paper. And it doesn't.

So if Britain, the only country in Europe with a Supercarrier and one of the only two with nukes, decides to amend the treaty, who the fuck is going to stop them?

Unless France sends troops to the Chunnel, the answer to that is no one. And the Chunnel can be collapsed.

[hyzmarca]

Here is the thing. The EU doesn't have an army. So it doesn't matter what the rules. Without the ability to enforce the rules, there are no rules. Unless the EU has the power to send an army into Britain and enforce compliance with the treaty, the treaty is so much toilet paper. And it doesn't.

So if Britain, the only country in Europe with a Supercarrier and one of the only two with nukes, decides to amend the treaty, who the fuck is going to stop them?

Unless France sends troops to the Chunnel, the answer to that is no one. And the Chunnel can be collapsed.

Britain totally has the power to hold the EU hostage with its nuclear arsenal, unless France intervenes. Yes, that's totally serious. They won't, because modern politicians are pussies who don't like playing brinksmanship, unlike their cold war era equivalents, but it's perfectly possible for them to do so.

[Username17]

There is no provision for kicking Greece out of the European Union if they Grexited. Germany was arguing that they would totally vote to kick them out if they started issuing Drachmas, but that was simply posturing. If you take their "the rules don't let me do this but I'm powerful and can do what I want" stance seriously, then you have to take the UK's ability to make side deals seriously as well. In fact, the UK's ability to make side deals is far more credible, because side deals happen in the EU all the time and no country has ever been kicked out of the EU against their wishes. Not even Hungary.

It is highly doubtful that you'd get Portugal, Spain, and Italy to vote to kick Greece out of the entire EU for extreme monetary shenanigans. And without those votes Greece simply wouldn't get kicked out.

-Username17

[Kaelik]

There is no provision for kicking Greece out of the European Union if they Grexited. Germany was arguing that they would totally vote to kick them out if they started issuing Drachmas, but that was simply posturing.

Bold stance, that Greece is so strong they can totally force Germany to do whatever they want even when no treaties compel them. I wonder what new absolutely crazy things you will say to pretend that the EU is the greatest thing since sliced bread and nothing about it could ever be bad.

Maybe it will turn out that the Euro was actually unrelated to the EU all along so the EU isn't at fault, oh wait... you already implied that earlier. Well still, I'm sure you can come up with something even more insane than "Greece will just violate whatever treaties it wants but then force everyone else to keep following those same treaties."

[hyzmarca]

Maybe it will turn out that the Euro was actually unrelated to the EU all along so the EU isn't at fault, oh wait... you already implied that earlier. Well still, I'm sure you can come up with something even more insane than "Greece will just violate whatever treaties it wants but then force everyone else to keep following those same treaties."

The EU lacks credible enforcement mechanisms. And without credible enforcement mechanisms, they have no way to deal with one member country, even a weak one, throwing a temper tantrum. So far, no one has actually had the balls to throw a temper tantrum, but if they did, the EU wouldn't actually be able to do anything to them.

You can totally play a game of "you must bend to my will because I'm a petulant toddler who won't back down" and win.

[Kaelik]

Maybe it will turn out that the Euro was actually unrelated to the EU all along so the EU isn't at fault, oh wait... you already implied that earlier. Well still, I'm sure you can come up with something even more insane than "Greece will just violate whatever treaties it wants but then force everyone else to keep following those same treaties."

The EU lacks credible enforcement mechanisms. And without credible enforcement mechanisms, they have no way to deal with one member country, even a weak one, throwing a temper tantrum. So far, no one has actually had the balls to throw a temper tantrum, but if they did, the EU wouldn't actually be able to do anything to them.

You can totally play a game of "you must bend to my will because I'm a petulant toddler who won't back down" and win.

1) "Changing the treaty" the thing you claim the UK can totally do, requires getting other countries to go along with the new terms, so your position is immediately self-contradictory.

2) Take that up with Frank "The EU will retaliate so hard that the UK will enter an economic collapse worse by an order of magnitude than the one in the late 2000s early 2010s."

3) Treaties are valuable because you get something out of them and others do too. This means that if you don't get the thing you wanted, because the treaty is unenforceable, then it's basically exactly like there is no treaty at all. You are describing the UK leaving the EU (doesn't obey the treaties, and also no one else obeys the treaties with respect to the UK) as an alternative to the EU. I have to question why you think lying about being a member of the EU is so important that you consider these different options.

[Hadanelith]

So if Britain, the only country in Europe with a Supercarrier and one of the only two with nukes, decides to amend the treaty, who the fuck is going to stop them?

What aircraft carrier? The Brits don't actually have one right now. Couple of piddly helicopter carriers (an AAS and 2 LPDs, specifically), but no super carrier. Hell, right now they're sharing with the French! On that carrier that they do happen to have (the Charles de Gaulle). Oh look, the Italians have a carrier too (the Cavour)! The Brits are actually incredibly behind in sea power right now, and will remain so until approx 2018, when the Queen Elizabeth carriers are theoretically finished. At this time, British military posturing must be based on land forces, land-based air forces, and a conventional navy that isn't terribly powerful. Oh, and nukes, which I'm pretty sure nobody wants to talk about using against other Europeans.

[DSMatticus]

This entire conversation is fucking absurd. Issuing drachmas is a violation of EU treaty. The treaties do not spell out explicit penalties for all violations of the treaty, but there are bodies in the EU whose explicitly enumerated powers include enforcement of EU law. Specifically, the European Commission - the least Greek-friendly member of the Troika, which is saying something, because there isn't a single arm of the Troika that didn't shit in Greece's cheerios. So how the fuck is that supposed to work? "The European Commission is consistently ruling against us in the bailout negotiations. Let's try spitting in their face and see if they warm up to us."

Note that several things the ECB did to coerce Greece into surrendering to the EC's demands were already arguably violations of EU law. "There's no explicit description for the form such a penalty would take" is a hilariously shitty argument, because what few explicit limits there are on the EU's enforcement mechanisms have a habit of getting ignored when it's politically convenient to begin with - and there aren't that many explicit limits in the first place. It would have been uncharted waters, yes, but Greece still would have been trying to sink Germany's battleship with a raft, a soccerball, and a crazy Tom Hanks. It's not difficult to predict how that fight would have gone.

[hyzmarca]

3) Treaties are valuable because you get something out of them and others do too. This means that if you don't get the thing you wanted, because the treaty is unenforceable, then it's basically exactly like there is no treaty at all. You are describing the UK leaving the EU (doesn't obey the treaties, and also no one else obeys the treaties with respect to the UK) as an alternative to the EU. I have to question why you think lying about being a member of the EU is so important that you consider these different options.

I prefer the situation where you don't obey the treaty, but everyone else does because they're afraid of what will happen if they don't.

[Kaelik]

I prefer the situation where you don't obey the treaty, but everyone else does because they're afraid of what will happen if they don't.

What are they afraid of? UK land invasion of France? UK Nuking France? UK not following the treaties (that they already aren't following)?

Which incredibly dumb thing do you think?

[hyzmarca]

I prefer the situation where you don't obey the treaty, but everyone else does because they're afraid of what will happen if they don't.

What are they afraid of? UK land invasion of France? UK Nuking France? UK not following the treaties (that they already aren't following)?

Which incredibly dumb thing do you think?

The obvious one is the UK ignoring all the other treaties, of which there are many. Having a country ignore one EU law isn't the same as having them ignore all EU laws. Ignoring one treaty isn't the same as ignoring all treaties.

[Kaelik]

The obvious one is the UK ignoring all the other treaties, of which there are many. Having a country ignore one EU law isn't the same as having them ignore all EU laws. Ignoring one treaty isn't the same as ignoring all treaties.

Once someone proves they will ignore any treaty they don't want to follow, you immediately know the only reason they follow any treaty is because they want to. So if the UK takes the position of "we ignore treaties we don't like" (whatever those even are, I mean, I think you are some kind of crazy person, so maybe your goal is to get rid of all the filthy immigrants or something, but back in reality, there's not really a reason for the UK to ignore any treaty), then it follows that any treaty they are following is one they are willingly doing, so if you start not following whatever treaty you want, you can be sure that the UK won't respond by ignoring treaties it wants to follow. Nor should you care if they do, because all it means is they were going to ignore those treaties anyway.