Grek wrote:The IMF does have real power, and I'm not sure why people think it doesn't.
The IMF has a rule to prevent megacorps from issuing more CBCs than they can actually pay back. By definition, anyone that is breaking that rule has issued more CBCs than they can pay back, and will be stuck holding the bag if the IMF convinces enough people to cash out of the CBCs and ask for more diamonds than the megacorp can actually provide. As long as the IMF continues to be consistantly correct about who's violating the CBC rules, they maintain their power to enforce those rules simply by telling the investors if someone is violating them and letting market forces handle the rest.
That's the thing, though... you can't actually
get diamonds for your CBCs, since CBC stands for Currency-Backed-Currency. While the IMF's $piders are immediately backed by every currency the IMF approves of, at whatever exchange rates the IMF declares, the various $corpions are something that you can potentially trade for another currency at some predefined future date. As such, the actual value of any given $corpion
cannot be all that different from that of the currency it is theoretically backed by, except and unless the megacorp in question appears to be financially insolvent, which should be rare.
If Standard Oil issues 500,000 Standard $corpions, then they'll issue them for something like at $20 USD each, payable for $25 in five years. Afterwards, people will pay somewhat more than $20 for them, and barter them between each other in the expectation that they'll eventually be worth $25. Like any other bond, the only volatility in the price of $corpions is bound up in speculation over interest rates. If people think that interest rates will rise, then your $corpions are less valuable, because anything new that comes out will be
more valuable then whatever is already on the market. If people think the opposite, then vice-versa, since the new $corpions are less valuable then the older ones. Of course, in either scenario, there are people who will play the other side and buy or sell $corpions to you, on the assumption that you are wrong, and that they'll be able to sell you your money back at a premium later.
The only other factor we have here is the possibility that a company will be unable to repay it's bonds, which isn't conceptually any different from the probability that a country will default on it's debt these days. It's
hard to say whether or not Standard Oil has too many $corpions on the market, since they take real money in with each $corpion and can potentially turn that money into more real value
faster then the interest rate increases. That's the underlying assumption behind any printing of bonds by a corporation, after all... as, unlike governments, corporations are in it for profit, not to appease voters with bread and circuses.
If the IMF says that Standard Oil is overprinting, then that's not so much saying that Standard Oil is actually putting out too much paper... it's really saying that Standard Oil is not in a position to turn any new capital it takes in to valuable products and resources faster then the prevailing interest rates. If they're believed, then people will probably stop buying $corpions from Standard Oil directly, and it'll probably decrease the price of the $corpions that are already on the market, as people suspect that Standard Oil might not be able to repay them. Whether or not it's actually true that Standard Oil is overprinting, this declaration would be a boon to them, since they could take advantage of the low prices to
buy back their previously-issued $corpions at a discount, provided that they've got any capital available at all with which to pay off their debts extra-cheaply. This declaration does not actually harm Standard Oil much, aside from making it temporarily more difficult to acquire new capital from the public at large... and accordingly, it's not actually that strong a power.