recent d&d deathwatch data

[ScottS]

Just checking/verifying the following things:

There were no reported WOTC Christmas layoffs.

The Red Box hasn't been on sale at Target or Walmart since early December. (I posted about this earlier in a different thread, but never updated; at my local store, the space where the starter set had been was re-stocked with Magic stuff, and when I followed up online, I found that you can't even order it from the company websites, although you can still buy stuff like the Rules Comp, the original core 3, etc.)

The Essentials material apparently isn't referencing the customers back to the older hardbacks in any way. (e.g. I'm reading the Rules Comp for the first time, and whenever it discusses powers/classes, it tells you to go to the "Heroes" line or to the "player books", without ever mentioning PHB1-3, the "* Power" line or the like. Not sure if this is burying past failure or some sort of recognition that almost all of their sales are pre-order/first-week and after that nothing.)

[Midnight_v]

So... curtains is it!

[Username17]

The apparent lack of Christmas Layoffs is a puzzle. I don't know what that means. It could mean that the company is doing well, which is probably what the fanboys will say, but that's unlikely. WotC's Christmas Layoffs tradition started when they were kicking ass and taking names and people wanted to pay them money for product endorsements.

Alternately, it could mean that they've contracted as far as they will go. Maybe one or two people as real employees and everyone else is just a freelancer. So no one is laid off, because everyone was on fixed contracts and was technically never hired in the first place.

Or, it could just be that they felt that they got really bad press from having people talk about the Christmas Layoff Tradition at WotC, and are trying to spruce things up a bit by having their restructurings at other times. Certainly, some deck chairs got moved around over the summer.

And finally, the Essentials Line is still going through to February. It's possible that everyone involved is simply under contract until then and it doesn't make any sense to fire anyone until March or so.

I don't have enough information.

-Username17

[TheFlatline]

The Red Box hasn't been on sale at Target or Walmart since early December. (I posted about this earlier in a different thread, but never updated; at my local store, the space where the starter set had been was re-stocked with Magic stuff, and when I followed up online, I found that you can't even order it from the company websites, although you can still buy stuff like the Rules Comp, the original core 3, etc.)

The red box was showing up in weird places during the holidays, such as board game seasonal stores and shit. It didn't look like it was selling, but it was there.

Also, Target has recently, as in the last few months, gone through a major change in which products they stock. A lot of stuff that used to be easily available isn't carried any more.

Walmart I have no insight on.

That being said, I dunno if my FLGS carries the red box, and it's certainly been a while since I've seen it over at any of the major bookstores.

[Juton]

That being said, I dunno if my FLGS carries the red box, and it's certainly been a while since I've seen it over at any of the major bookstores.

I've noticed its conspicuous absence at my FLGS as well. They have some 4e and Pathfinder but no 'essentials', 4e doesn't seem as popular here so maybe they didn't even bother to order it?

[Doom]

My FLGS actually had lots of Dark Sun stuff on the shelves, a big change for their 4e section, which hadn't moved even a little in months (August, perhaps).

[souran]

Strange:

My main FLGS store sold out of all the essentials stuff in the week before christmas and got restocked to its typical levels.

I have only been to 2 of my local 4 FLGS stores but both of those continue to indicate that 4E D&D outsells everything else in the rpg market by a fairly wide margin.

Also: my main store indicated that the monster vault product sold better than any monster manual had before at that location and its likely because of the inclusion of tokens for every monster in the box.

All 3 the Barnes and Noble locations in my area carry a healthy selection of 4E, and over my entire Christmas shopping season I didn't see a single person purchase an rpg product that didn't say Dungeons and Dragons on it.

lOne of our area borders is closing, and they sold every single rpg product within 2 days of placing a 50% off sign on the shelf.

My friend at the other area borders indicated that the D&D boxed set items sold better than any kind of book in december at his location.
He offered the somewhat strange reasoning that the boxed stuff sells better because its easier for parents/grandparents to that a thing in a box is a game while the books tend to look all the same to them.

Anyway, this is of course anectodal, and so are the other posts. However, I have still yet to see anything near the doom and gloom about 4e sales that other people seem to find.

[shadzar]

that is where the logic of "boxed sets" came from. you buy monopoly and everything you need is in the box, but you buy a game made up of books, and you need to know which book to buy...its like buying books for college...you need specific ones and there isnt just a list of them or prepackaged group of them to get.

it is more psychological than anecdotal.

it is also what hurt many boxed set from past eidtions where people though the entire game was in it, but, anecdotes of my own friends was that parents wouldnt buy the needed books because everything "should have been in the box" and the idea of "expansions" for games hadnt come about full circle then for people to think there could be more after you have the initial game....but HeroQuest broke some of those parents of that when they wasted money and had to go back and hunt down the board game needed to use those expansions.

they probably figured it wouldnt be a big seller as new people wouldnt be that after it if it only meant going to 3rd level. so they probably shorted the xmas shopping on it to gauge how well it would sell.

Walmart i am surprised even carried it at all, since it has been cutting departments for over 2 years now trying to reduce itself to Roses and Kmart uselessness by not carrying anything worth a flip.

The most telling thing that D&D is dying is Bill S, and Richard Baker are still working with it.

[ScottS]

Anyway, this is of course anectodal, and so are the other posts. However, I have still yet to see anything near the doom and gloom about 4e sales that other people seem to find.

The "Red Box gone from Walmart/Target through all of Dec" story isn't just my personal anecdote (from what I've been able to gather so far).

The thread wasn't meant to be "doom and gloom", so much as fact-checking that "their attempts to break the lack-of-new-gamers status quo went nowhere (assuming they were even serious about it)". I don't doubt that the newer stuff has sold OK, but the question is how much of that is due to their de-facto-new-edition relaunch (in particular the suckers-will-buy-anything-that-says-'D&D-core-rulebook' effect). Maybe the packaging helped; maybe people think that Essentials fixed the retardedness and are excited about that. But losing the Walmart shelf space they were trying to grab would seem to be a setback. (The "available at Walmart and Target" ad on their splash page was up for all of Dec and is still up now.)

[Krakatoa]

I think it goes without saying that Dungeons and Dragons has never been truly mainstream, even if it was briefly popular enough to get a theatrical movie. It wouldn't surprise me if it hasn't sold well at Walmart and Target.

Essentials may have been a marketing misfire, but it's still 4E and an essentially solid system. I don't think there's a financial problem so much as a hubris problem.

[Doom]

Well, 4e-ish is fair enough, but solid? Has anyone played Essentials into the double-digit levels to see if it falls apart just like 4e?

[Krakatoa]

I've never heard about 4E falling apart at high-level play, but I'm sure there are plenty of blogs or vlogs or podcasts about Essentials campaigns somwhere on tthe web. Maybe check RPPR's Actual Plays?

[hogarth]

Also: my main store indicated that the monster vault product sold better than any monster manual had before at that location and its likely because of the inclusion of tokens for every monster in the box.

Someone on the Paizo boards indicated that he bought the Monster Vault pretty much for the tokens only, with no intent to use it for 4E.

[quanta]

Well, 4e-ish is fair enough, but solid? Has anyone played Essentials into the double-digit levels to see if it falls apart just like 4e?

Well, the Warlord's not in essentials, so I imagine there's less issues with "lol, I hit everything on a 2, cuz the taclord battle captain buffed me."

On the other hand, if they didn't rescale monster defenses, their could be the issue that due to less crazy buffs, you can't hit shit and everything hits your low defense on a 2.

[Bihlbo]

I really want to nutshot the douche who is responsible for 4Es, just on principle. Still, having recently run a D&D game for my brother's kids, I find myself wanting an "easy mode" fighter to hand my neice who only ever used her basic attack during her first game, so I might have to buckle and find a used copy somewhere.

[LR]

I've never heard about 4E falling apart at high-level play, but I'm sure there are plenty of blogs or vlogs or podcasts about Essentials campaigns somwhere on tthe web. Maybe check RPPR's Actual Plays?

Remember how the skill challenge rules generate useless results at levels 1 to 30? That didn't stop being a thing that happens or anything.

[Krakatoa]

Well that's fair enough, but skill challenges are a non-integral element, and something so easy to house rule that it hardly factors into the game balance. I think there have to be tangible and unavoidable balance issues before you can really say a system falls apart at x level. ie Pathfinder, BESM.

Edit: also, whether the game falls apart at high-level play is kind of irrelevant to the topic here, sales... as 3.5 has proved for going on eight years.

[FatR]

It's a well-known observation that 4E falls apart in the middle of its level range, because the damage/hitpoint math is screwed and fights become way too long. Our local (I don't mean TGD) fanboys were talking about how to fix this long ago, so I think that this observation is pretty universal. And as far as I can tell, Lago and other Denners who played 4E belive that past 20th level 4E is laughably easy to break completely.

[Krakatoa]

Um, okay? I'm not sure what your point is. The math being iffy at levels x-y probably doesn't have any bearing on the sales of the game. If the core system is solid, then the math can be fixed with some minor house rules and errata. I just can't imagine these things having a huge impact on the sales, especially when 3.X was such a popular system despite being fundamentally unbalanced in favor of spellcasters. If 4E's sales are lagging behind whatever they hypothetically 'should' be there are likely other reasons for this: ie, brand burn-out, the increasing profile of rules-lite and indie games, the prohibitive logistics compared to other forms of entertainment, etc.

Lago and other Denners who played 4E believe that past 20th level 4E is laughably easy to break completely.

Judging by some recent threads (I just registered but I've been lurking) Lago is a huge grog and kind of nuts, so I'm really not sure I trust his judgment.

[LR]

Well that's fair enough, but skill challenges are a non-integral element, and something so easy to house rule that it hardly factors into the game balance. I think there have to be tangible and unavoidable balance issues before you can really say a system falls apart at x level. ie Pathfinder, BESM.

Non-integral? They're only the entire non-combat system. They're also not easy to houserule because any functioning houserules would have to replace the subsystem in its entirety. But as far as combat goes, I can't really give specific examples because I stopped following the 4e metagame months ago due to the constant changes. If you really care, you can search for "4E Power Build" on these boards to find some builds by Lago that do a lot of crazy stuff in whatever version of 4e they were built for.

[Doom]

Um, okay? I'm not sure what your point is. The math being iffy at levels x-y probably doesn't have any bearing on the sales of the game. If the core system is solid, then the math can be fixed with some minor house rules and errata.

Um, erm, uh, it's been over 2 years and the math can't even be arguably called fixed, even after a 100 pages of errata, although if you have some 'minor house rules', be sure to show them already. The flaws are more ingrained than just moving up or down a few numbers.

And a game being known for being broken can influence the sales, durr.

[Krakatoa]

If your problem is 'fights go on too long' then you can easily fix that by just lowering the monster's hit points or just adding extra damage to the players' damage rolls. You don't even have to tell them you're doing these things.

Skill challenges aren't integral because they don't have to be used. You can still have skill checks without using the Challenge system, which is what the DM in my current game does. Or if you want a not-so-simple system there's Obsidian.

And a game being known for being broken can influence the sales, durr.

True, but again, there are plenty of examples of completely broken games selling well, and compared to literally every other version of DnD, 4E is meticulously balanced. WOTC is constantly updating that balance. It seems illogical to assume that the math is scaring people away here if copious tables and worthless fighters weren't in previous editions.

[Krakatoa]

There's some sales figures a few around here throw around

Or, how about this. Go to your local game store, and ask them how 4e is selling compared to 3.x did two years after 3.x came out?

Wizards doesn't actually release their sales figures, so I'm not sure where they're coming by them. And FLGS sales can't give you the full picture because of the prominence of stores like Barnes and Noble and Amazon.

Also, the market today is vastly different, with dozens of indie and rules lite games, as well as grognards who hate 4E, people who play retroclones, and Pathfinder. And the economy is in the tank, which it was not during the same period for 3.x.

Overall, there are too many factors here to accurately assess the system's success at this point. I'm not saying it's NOT failing, I'm saying we don't know enough yet to make that call.

[Username17]

Skill challenges aren't integral because they don't have to be used. You can still have skill checks without using the Challenge system, which is what the DM in my current game does. Or if you want a not-so-simple system there's Obsidian.

Oh wait, you're serious. That's so sad.

First off, the game only has two things in it. And I mean, in the entire game. It's just the tactical combat minigame, and the Skill Challenge™ minigame. That's the entire game, in those two minigames. That Skill Challenges completely don't work, at all is a really big fucking deal.

Secondly, Obsidian is a piece of crap that doesn't do what it is supposed to do and doesn't solve the underlying problems of skill challenges. In fact, it's even reviewed, by me, in the very thread you were just linked to that described the numerous problems with Skill Challenges. Here's the conclusion:

Now frankly I don't see why I'd bother. The thing where the designer supposedly made it so that you weren't punished for contributing is false because the challenge scales in difficulty for having more players. So while it did make it so that the Fighter doesn't feel like a jackass for picking up dice, he still feels like a jackass for being there at all. And the design goal of getting everyone to do something different and not just try to convince your DM to let you use your best skill over and over again is a totally failed design goal. All he did was give people a longer list of base skills to use and then admonished the DM to only let people use skills off the list for "very creative" uses (as opposed to "creative" uses like the original). There's still no mechanical meat to convince me to do anything other than try to convince the DM to let me use one of my best skills every round.

About the only real solid advancement is that his system is only 3 rounds long. That is something I can get behind. But you know what? That's seriously about as far as the skill challenge system can go. All the math, all the effort, and I just don't even care. Obsidian looks about as different as it is possible to look and still get accused of being a skill challenge system, and it still blows.

-Username17

[Judging__Eagle]

Pathfinder is.... not really more than a footnote in gaming. Just because you see PF shit on a LGS shelf doesn't mean it's moving. If anything, it shows that it's probably not moving.